512
FXUS01 KWBC 291958
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Valid 00Z Wed Jul 30 2025 - 00Z Fri Aug 01 2025

...Widespread Heat wave to continue Wednesday from the Lower
Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley, east along much of the east coast,
but begin to shrink in areal extent late week into the weekend...

...Below average temperatures spread south into the
Northern-Central Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and east across
the  Great Lakes into New York State and New England...

...Heavy rains, flash flooding and severe thunderstorms possible
from the Northern-Central Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley
from this evening into early Wednesday....

...Heavy rains and flash flooding possible Wednesday from the
Central High Plains across the Lower Missouri Valley into the
Lower Lakes and then on Thursday from Southern New England into
the Mid-Atlantic...

...Fire weather threat from Northern California into the Great
Basin...

The late July heat wave will continue to affect large portions of
the CONUS from the Lower Mississippi Valley, eastward along much
of the eastern seaboard through Wednesday.  Extreme heat warnings
and heat advisories currently stretch across these areas,
affecting over 190 million people.  There are changes on tap for
the later part of this week and into this weekend as the areal
extent of the heat wave will be decreasing from north to south.
However, widespread much above average temperatures expected again
Wednesday across the above mentioned regions, but slightly cooler
temperatures are forecast for Thursday as the strong mid to upper
level ridge that has fueled this heat wave begins to weaken.

As the strong mid to upper level ridge weakens across the southern
tier of the nation, a strong front will be pressing southward
across the northern tier into the central portions of the nation.
High temperatures in the wake of this front will be below average
on Wednesday across the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi
Valley.  These below average temperatures will then sink south
into the Middle Mississippi Valley, Central Plains and portions of
the Southern High Plains on Thursday, and eastward across the
Great Lakes, and into New England and the Northeast on Thursday,
and farther south along the remainder of the east coast on Friday.

The above mentioned strong front will also be a focus for active
thunderstorms over the next few days, bringing the threat of heavy
rains, flash flooding and severe weather to large portions of the
CONUS.  Heavy rains, flash flooding and severe thunderstorms will
concentrate this evening into the overnight hours of early
Wednesday from the Northern-Central Plains into the Mid
Mississippi Valley.  This will be followed by another round of
heavy rains and potential flash flooding, especially across recent
burn scar areas of New Mexico on Wednesday from the
Central-Southern High Plains across the Lower Missouri Valley into
the Lower Lakes.  By Thursday, the heavy rain and flash flooding
threat will then push into southern New England, southward through
the urban corridor from New York City to Washington D.C.

A series of mid to upper level impulses moving northeastward
across northern California into the Northern Great Basin will
support scattered thunderstorm activity over the next few
afternoons across these areas.  While precipitation amounts are
not expected to be heavy, there will be a risk of lightning
induced wild fires across these areas.  Red flag warnings are
currently in effect across these areas, affecting approximately
500 thousand people.

Oravec

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$