968
FXUS01 KWBC 221907
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Valid 00Z Thu Jul 23 2026 - 00Z Sat Jul 25 2026

...Impactful flash flooding expected across portions of the
southern Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas west through the Tennessee Valley
through Friday...

...Tropical Storm Bertha is expected to generate isolated flash
flooding, tropical storm conditions, and coastal flooding along
the Gulf Coast and into southern Texas...

...Monsoonal thunderstorms continue over much of the Intermountain
West and adjacent High Plains...

...Hazardous heat continues over parts of the Southern Tier;
builds over the Great Basin and Northern Plains Friday...

The National Hurricane Center continues to track Tropical Storm
Bertha, currently located near the southeastern Louisiana
coastline as of mid-day today (Wednesday), and forecast to move
westward along the northern Gulf Coast through Thursday and into
southern Texas by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected
to continue along the northern Gulf Coast from the western Florida
Panhandle to southeastern Louisiana, including the metro New
Orleans area, through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
possible for portions of the southeastern coast of Louisiana and
upper Texas Gulf Coast through late Thursday. Isolated areas of
flash flooding remain possible through Friday morning along the
northern Gulf Coast and into southern Texas with coastal flooding
possible as well.

Meanwhile, an impactful flash flood threat will continue across
portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas into Tennessee
Valley the next few days as moisture associated with Bertha helps
to augment an already anomalously moist airmass over the
Southeast. The moisture pooling along a quasi-stationary frontal
boundary will support widespread, very heavy rainfall producing
storms. A Moderate Risk of Excessive rainfall (level 3/4) is in
effect for southeastern Virginia and into extreme northeastern
North Carolina today where training/repeated rounds of storms will
bring a scattered to widespread and potentially significant threat
of flash flooding. This threat will shift a bit southward further
into northeastern North Carolina tomorrow as the front slowly
pushes southward, with another Moderate Risk in effect. A Slight
Risk (level 2/4) extends westward through portions of the southern
Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas and into the southern Appalachians through
tonight, with Slight Risk areas through the Carolinas and into the
Tennessee Valley on Thursday and Friday for additional scattered
instances of flash flooding.

Monsoonal moisture will bring the threat for scattered flash
flooding across a broad swath of the Great Basin/Southwest/Four
Corners region and into portions of the Rockies this afternoon,
with a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall in effect. The threat
will shift a bit further east on Thursday with a Slight Risk for
portions of eastern Colorado while a Marginal Risk (level 1/4)
continues from the Southwest/Four Corners region into the central
Rockies for more isolated instances of flash flooding. Further
east, northwesterly flow will promote widespread, organized
thunderstorm complex development both tonight as well as on
Thursday. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect
Thursday over portions of the central Plains/Missouri Valley as
this second round of heavy rainfall on already saturated soils may
lead to scattered flash flooding.

Hazardous heat continues this week over the Southern Tier of the
U.S. before beginning to expand northward through the Great Basin
as well as across the Northern and then Central Plains Friday into
the weekend. Forecast highs range in the mid-90s to mid-100s with
heat indices exceeding 105-115 degrees for some locations. Record
warm overnight lows in the 75 to 80 degree range will provide
little relief from th heat overnight. Widespread major to locally
extreme HeatRisk (levels 3 and 4/4) is expected which indicates a
level of heat dangerous to anyone without adequate cooling or
hydration. Continue to monitor WPC`s Key Messages for more details
and updates on the heat. One last day of hot,
record-tying/breaking temperatures continues today for the Pacific
Northwest before a cold front brings relief Thursday. Temperatures
will be below to well below average and mild for mid-Summer across
much of the Midwest to Mid-Atlantic/Northeast following a cold
front passage, with highs in the 70s to low 80s.

Putnam

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




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