835
FXUS01 KWBC 121759
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
159 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Valid 00Z Sun Jul 13 2025 - 00Z Tue Jul 15 2025

...Risk of flash flooding returns to the Southern Plains this
weekend including portions of hard-hit northern/central Texas...

...Stormy weekend forecast across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and
much of the East Coast with some severe weather and flash flooding
possible...

..Heat builds over much of the eastern and western U.S. this
weekend with heat-related advisories and warnings in place...

A Summertime airmass rich with moisture ahead of a cold front
progressing from the Midwest/Plains into the Northeast will fuel
widespread thunderstorms across much of the eastern and central
U.S. this weekend. Storms are expected along both the front over
the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and well ahead of the front
along the East Coast Saturday. An upper-level shortwave supporting
greater shear along the cold front from the Lower Great Lakes into
the Ohio Valley will bring the threat for some severe weather. The
Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5)
mainly for the threat of damaging winds. In addition, the
plentiful moisture will lead to locally heavy downpours and the
risk for isolated flash flooding both here as well as across
portions of the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic northward into Upstate New
York/western New England. The cold front will move eastward into
the Northeast on Sunday helping to focus storm coverage across
portions of the Mid-Atlantic northward into the northern
Appalachians and Upstate New York. The threat for
training/repeated rounds of storms on top of the anomalously moist
air mass has led to a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level
2/4) with scattered instances of flash flooding possible. More
isolated instances of flash flooding can be expected westward
along the stalling front through the Ohio Valley.

To the southwest, the cold front is expected to stall across the
Southern Plains with a position likely dictated/reinforced by
ongoing convection. Plentiful Gulf moisture remains throughout the
region and the passage of an upper-level wave will help to support
widespread storm development through Sunday. Tonight, the greatest
threat of storm coverage as well as heavy rain rates/totals
stretches from Oklahoma southwest through portions of northern and
central Texas, where a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in
effect. The expected heavy rainfall totals along with already
sensitive, wet antecedent conditions may lead to scattered to
potentially numerous instances of flash flooding. The Slight Risk
extends into western Texas and eastern New Mexico due to the
threat for heavy downpours and scattered flash flooding here as
well. The front will make little progress into Sunday, again
likely dictated by convection tonight, with a similar threat for
more heavy rainfall overlapping most of the same region as today.
A Slight Risk remains in effect for more scattered to potentially
numerous instances of flash flooding, especially for areas that
are impacted tonight. Flood watches and advisories are in effect
for much of the Southern Plains.

Hot temperatures are in store this weekend across much of the
eastern and western U.S. In the West, most locations will be in
the 90s to low 100s, with low 110s in the Desert Southwest, as an
upper-level ridge builds overhead. The most hazardous heat is
expected across the central California Valleys into the interior
Pacific Northwest/western Great Basin, with areas of Major Heat
Risk expected (level 3/4), indicating a level of heat dangerous to
anyone without access to adequate air conditioning or hydration.
Much of the region is under heat-related warnings and advisories.
Highs into the 90s and very muggy conditions will also lead to an
uncomfortable weekend in the East, with areas of Major Heat Risk
expected across the Interior Northeast/Lower Great Lakes Saturday,
and expanding in coverage across much of the Southeast/Carolinas
Sunday. A cold front passage will bring a little relief to the
Interior Northeast/Lower Great Lakes on Sunday. Onshore flow will
keep temperatures much cooler in coastal New England. Areas of the
Plains and Midwest will see below average temperatures and more
temperate Summer conditions with the cold front passage and areas
of widespread clouds/precipitation. Highs on Saturday will be in
the low to mid 80s for most of the northern/central Plains and
Midwest, with low 90s into Texas. Warmer conditions will return to
more northern locations by Sunday as highs warm up into the
mid-80s to low 90s, while much of the central/southern Plains and
Texas will remain in the 80s.

Kebede/Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


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