916
FXUS01 KWBC 260757
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Valid 12Z Sat Jul 26 2025 - 12Z Mon Jul 28 2025

...Heavy rain, flash flooding, and severe weather possible from
the Northern/Central Plains and Midwest to the Northeast this
weekend...

...Dangerous heatwave develops across Southeast...


A series of shortwaves riding atop the northern periphery of a
strengthening upper ridge will support scattered to isolated
thunderstorm activity from the Plains to the East Coast this
weekend. Today, thunderstorms are expected to move through the
Midwest. The severe threat remains marginal (level 1/5) according
to the Storm Prediction Center, but there is a slight risk (at
least 15% chance) of excessive rainfall for portions of the
Midwest as well as Pennsylvania, northern Maryland and the West
Virginia panhandle, where recent rain has left soils saturated and
susceptible to flash flooding. Another shortwave emerging from the
Front Range region will likely generate thunderstorms over the
Northern Plains tonight. SPC has a slight risk (level 2/5) of
severe thunderstorms for parts of southern North Dakota and
northern South Dakota due to the threat of damaging wind gusts.

While the severe threat diminishes on Sunday, flash flooding
concerns remain in place across portions of the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes. Storms that are likely to move through the
Northern Plains tonight should arrive in Minnesota by Sunday
morning. Thus, a slight risk of excessive rainfall is in effect
for parts of northern Minnesota to account relatively saturated
soils from recent rain. Elsewhere, the strengthening ridge over
the Southeast may send monsoonal moisture into the Southwest
beginning Sunday. This could lead to isolated instances of flash
flooding for the region.

Extreme heat is expected to intensify this weekend across much of
the Southeast and Tennessee Valley, with the most dangerous
combination of high temperatures and humidity likely early next
week. This will result in a prolonged and very dangerous hazardous
heat wave. Heat levels will become dangerous for anyone without
adequate cooling or hydration. High temperatures will soar into
the upper 90s to low 100s, with heat index values ("feels like"
temperatures) surpassing 110-115 degrees. Several major
metropolitan areas--including Raleigh, Charlotte,
Greenville-Spartanburg and Atlanta--are expected to face Extreme
HeatRisk for multiple days. Over 30 million people will likely be
impacted at the peak of this heatwave.


Kebede

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$