730
FXUS01 KWBC 040730
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 AM EDT Thu Sep 04 2025

Valid 12Z Thu Sep 04 2025 - 12Z Sat Sep 06 2025

...A few strong to severe thunderstorms possible along a cold
front pushing across parts of the East today...

...Another strong cold front to bring increasingly cooler air to
the central U.S. through the end of the week, reaching the eastern
U.S. this weekend...

...Deep moisture along a stalled frontal boundary will support
rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the southern Florida
Peninsula the next few days...

...Monsoonal showers and thunderstorms will increase across the
Southwest and Four Corners through the end of the week, with
isolated to scattered flash flooding possible...

...Significant heat continues across the interior Pacific
Northwest today, easing somewhat Friday into Saturday...

The strong cold front that brought a notable cool down to much of
the northern Plains and Upper Midwest the last couple of days will
begin working into the Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and interior
Northeast today. While the airmass behind the front has moderated
quite a bit, the forcing along it will still be enough to kick off
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, a few of which
could become strong to marginally severe. The main concern from
any strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
would be damaging wind gusts. The front weakens and eventually
dissipates as it pushes across the rest of the Northeast, New
England, and Mid-Atlantic Friday into Saturday, bringing a few
more showers and storms but little if any significant cooling.

Another significant cold front and strengthening low pressure
system will sweep through the northern Plains today before diving
into the central U.S. tonight into Friday. As the main low
pressure center lifts to the northeast into Canada, the cold front
will continue to march to the south and east, reaching the
southern Plains, Tennessee/Ohio Valleys and the Northeast late
Friday into Saturday. Ahead of the front, summer-like heat will
build from Texas to the Southeast, to the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast with highs climbing into the 80s to near 90 north to
well into the 90s south. Parts of southern Texas will even reach
the triple digits. A big cool down then follows, with highs across
the central U.S. only reaching the 50s and 60s Friday and
Saturday. Overnight lows will bottom out in the 30s, 40s, and 50s.
The notably cooler airmass progresses into northern Texas to the
Ohio Valley to the interior Northeast on Saturday, then the rest
of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Mid-South, and central Texas on
Sunday. Highs behind the front will only be in the 60s and 70s,
which is roughly 15 to 25 degrees below early September averages.
In addition to the cool down, the front will also bring another
round of scattered showers and storms as it tracks across central
and eastern U.S.

Farther south, deep moisture pooled along a very slow-moving
boundary draped across South Florida will continue to produce
additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms through at least
Friday. Given the high moisture in place, showers and storms will
be capable of producing very heavy rainfall rates. As a result,
localized flash flooding can`t be ruled out, especially in urban
and poor drainage areas.

West of the Rockies, monsoonal moisture combined with strong
surface heating will lead to the daily threat of scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms across parts of the Southwest
and Four Corners region through the end of the week. Moisture will
surge farther north Friday into Saturday, expanding the risk of
showers and storms into the Great Basin and interior portions of
the Pacific Northwest. Showers and storms will contain bursts of
heavy rain which could lead to isolated instances of flash
flooding in more vulnerable places like slot canyons, arroyos,
steep terrain, burn scars, etc. A more concentrated threat of
scattered flash flooding is possible through Friday across
portions of southern Arizona as moisture associated with what is
currently Hurricane Lorena over the Pacific gets pulled northward.


Across interior portions of the Pacific Northwest, a significant
late season heat wave continues for at least one more day as a
ridge of upper-level high pressure stays parked over the region.
High temperatures are forecast to soar well into the 90s and low
100s today, which will likely challenge a few daily records once
again. Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories remain in effect
across parts of northern Oregon, eastern Washington, and northern
Idaho through this evening. While still staying hot, the intensity
of the heat will begin to wane somewhat Friday and Saturday as
highs fall a few degrees into the low to mid 90s. More significant
relief likely arrives late this weekend into early next week.

Miller


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$