040
FXUS01 KWBC 191910
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
309 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Valid 00Z Fri Sep 20 2024 - 00Z Sun Sep 22 2024

...Severe thunderstorm potential from the Upper Mississippi Valley
into the Lower Missouri Valley and eastern portions of the Central
to Southern Plains...

...Much above average temperatures across the Plains, Mid to Upper
Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and Great Lakes...

...Rainy weather on tap for southeast New England...

...A developing heavy rain event this weekend from the Central to
Southern Rockies into the Central Plains...

Thunderstorms are expected to continue to develop late this
afternoon into Thursday night/early Friday morning ahead of a
frontal boundary stretching from the Upper Mississippi Valley,
southwestward into the Southern Plains.  The thunderstorms along
and ahead of this front may become severe with large hail and high
winds the greatest threat, with tornadoes a lesser threat. This
front will be fairly quick moving to the east and southeast, which
will be a detriment to very heavy rainfall amounts.  However,
there is still the potential for isolated heavy totals, that could
result in localized flooding, especially over urbanized regions.

There will not be much temperature relief in the wake of this
front from the much above average temperatures currently
stretching across the Plains into the Mid to Upper Mississippi
Valley and Great Lakes.  These regions will continue to see some
late summer heat over the next two days before a stronger cold
front pushes across the Northern to Central Plains into the Upper
Mississippi Valley on Saturday and begins to push cooler air
eastward from the Northern Plains.

There is not expected to be large areas of heavy rains across the
lower 48 over the next two days.  Exceptions will be across
southeastern New England where a slow moving low off the southeast
New England coast will keep conditions wet Friday and Saturday.
Showery weather also likely to persist across South Florida where
tropical moisture will bring the potential for localized heavy
rains and isolated urban flash flooding from daily thunderstorms.

A strong mid to upper level low off the central to southern
California coast Thursday afternoon will be pressing eastward
Friday and Saturday across the Southwest and into the Four Corners
region.  There is not expected to be any large areas of
precipiation associated with this strong mid to upper level low
across central to southern California into the Southwest from
Thursday evening into early Saturday.  However, during Saturday as
this system moves into the Four Corners region, higher levels of
moisture are expected to be transported northward ahead of the mid
to upper level low into the Central to Southern Rockies and
Southern High Plains.  This will be the beginning of an
increasingly large precipitation event, initially across the
Central to Southern Rockies on Saturday, but expanding eastward
Saturday evening/night into the Central Plains and Lower Missouri
Valley.

Oravec


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




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