797
FXUS01 KWBC 061959
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 PM EDT Tue May 06 2025

Valid 00Z Wed May 07 2025 - 00Z Fri May 09 2025

...Widespread showers and storms to bring scattered to numerous
instances of considerable flash flooding and severe weather to
portions of the Mid-South and the western and central Gulf Coast...

...Pesky weather pattern of showers and storm across much of the
Mid-Atlantic, Northeast, and Great Lakes should begin to taper off
by Thursday...

...Cooler, well below average temperatures persist across parts of
the Inter-Mountain West and central/southern Plains as the
northern Plains and Pacific West Coast see above average
temperatures...

 The upper-low over the Southwest and an accompanying surface low
pressure/frontal system emerging across the Plains this afternoon
is providing forcing for a line of heavy thunderstorms that are
bringing flash flooding and all hazards of severe weather to parts
of the Deep South and Gulf Coast. Multiple clusters of storms may
affect these regions for the remainder of Tuesday and Wednesday,
particularly for coastal Gulf cities from Houston to Pensacola.
This is a result of the influx of anomalously high Gulf moisture
interacting with quasi-stationary front and upper-low providing
favorable atmospheric dynamics. A Moderate Risk of Excessive
Rainfall (ERO) is in effect for much of the Louisiana Gulf Coast
for tomorrow as the threat of considerable flash flooding will be
possible. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall extends from Houston
to Mobile for a more scattered flooding potential. Bottom line,
across the next few days, heavy rainfall and locally strong
thunderstorms  will be present. As much as 4-7 inches of rain is
forecast across the central Gulf Coast in the 48 hour period. Turn
around, do not drown. As for the severe side of the storms, the
Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk across eastern Texas and
a Marginal Risk across the central Gulf Coast for the hazards of
isolated severe hail, strong winds, and a few tornadoes for
tomorrow.

Across the eastern U.S., another upper-level low and surface low
is funneling high precipitable water and moisture transport along
the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Additionally, cooler temperatures
aloft associated with the upper-low will continue to provide
severe weather potential through this evening for the main
hazards of hail and strong winds. Fortunately, another trough will
begin to dip southeast towards the east Coast and begin to slowly
push the storm system out of the region. Showers will linger
across the region on Wednesday and Thursday as the low pressure
spins offshore, but rainfall amounts should be light and
instability will be limited on the cool side of the upper-low.
There is the potential for the return of heavy rain on Friday
across the Northeast with the next cold front, but the details are
uncertain by this time range.

Cooler temperatures will be present across New Mexico, Colorado,
and the Central Plains due to being north of the surface boundary
across the Gulf Coast and being underneath an upper-level low
meandering across the central part of the country. For Wednesday
and Thursday, high temperatures in the upper 50s, 60s, and some
low 70s will range 10-15 degrees below average for early May.
Meanwhile, across the West, desert Southwest, and the northern
Great Plains, temperatures will be as warm as 20 degrees above
average.Temperatures out West will be in the 80s across the
valleys and in the 70s for most coastal and high terrain areas.
The Desert Southwest will warm up significantly as ridging builds
in, and temperatures warm back into the 80s and 90s for Wednesday
and Thursday. Friday could see the hottest temperatures of the
year so far for the area as low 100s appear. The Northern Plains
will see daily temperatures in the upper 70s and 80s by Thursday
and Friday as ridging builds in across the area behind a weak
frontal boundary. The high variation in temperatures is a result
of the current Omega Block pattern !

Elsewhere across the country, the Pacific Northwest could see some
rain showers on Wednesday and Thursday as a weak system moves
across the region.

Wilder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


$$