255
FXUS01 KWBC 102001
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Valid 00Z Mon Aug 11 2025 - 00Z Wed Aug 13 2025

...Repeated rounds of heavy rain in store across portions of the
central Plains, Midwest, and Southeast through Monday...

...Severe thunderstorms pose a threat of large hail and damaging
winds over portions of the central and southern Plains through
tonight...

...Heat builds across the Intermountain West and from parts of the
Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through midweek...

A slow-moving, nearly stationary frontal boundary extending from
the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains will continue to be the
focus for additional rounds of thunderstorms and heavy downpours
over the next couple of days. The risk of severe weather will be
highest across parts of Colorado, Kansas, northeast New Mexico,
western Oklahoma and the panhandle of Texas through tonight when
clusters of strong to potentially severe storms will threaten the
region with very large hail and damaging winds. While not a
primary threat, an isolated tornado or two isn`t entirely ruled
out either. Farther east across the central Plains and Midwest,
the concern shifts to heavy rain that is capable of flash
flooding, some of which may be significant. Slow-moving
thunderstorms will take advantage of an environment that features
a battleground between cool and dry air to the north and west and
plenty of moisture and instability to the south and east. As
clusters of storms merge and track over the same locations, the
cumulative effects of heavy rain will likely lead to numerous
instances of flash flooding. Additionally, the slow and chaotic
movement of these storm clusters combined with intense rainfall
rates over saturated grounds will mean that any flash flooding
will have the heightened potential to produce significant impacts.
The Weather Prediction Center continues to maintain a Slight Risk
of excessive rainfall for this general area, with a Moderate Risk
embedded across parts of Kansas, Missouri and northern Oklahoma
through Monday morning. The risk lessens somewhat for Tuesday, but
additional bouts of heavy rain are likely. Remember, have a plan
before venturing out and be aware of alternate routes in case you
encounter flooded roadways. As always, Turn Around, Don`t Drown!

Meanwhile, another nearly stationary boundary will be associated
with the potential of flood-producing heavy rains across the
Southeast U.S. over the next couple of days. The heaviest rainfall
is expected to be across parts of coastal Georgia and the
Carolinas where moisture from the Atlantic converges. Scattered
thunderstorms will also skirt the coasts of the Florida Peninsula
and across northern Florida. Across the southern Rockies, some
monsoonal moisture will keep a threat of isolated flooding due to
the development of scattered thunderstorms which will be most
active during the late afternoon into the evening hours through
Tuesday

Heat and humidity will remain in place ahead of the aforementioned
slow-moving front, in contrast with much cooler air behind the
front from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains to the
central High Plains through Tuesday. More significant heat and
humidity will gradually build eastward into parts of the Ohio
Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through midweek, with high
temperatures well into the 80s to mid-90s and pockets of Major
HeatRisk in the forecast. The Southeast should remain somewhat
cooler than average due to the prevalence of clouds and scattered
showers/thunderstorms. Across the Intermountain West, dangerous
heat will expand through Tuesday, with numerous Heat Advisories
and Extreme Heat Warnings already in effect.


Miller/Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$