787
FXUS01 KWBC 050834
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Valid 12Z Sat Jul 05 2025 - 12Z Mon Jul 07 2025

...Highly localized and slow-moving thunderstorms lead to
additional heavy downpours and flash flooding today over saturated
grounds in central Texas...

...Tropical Depression Three is forecast to intensify into a
tropical storm and bring heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms
into the coastal plains of the Carolinas on Sunday...

...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move across the
northern Plains, upper Midwest/Great Lakes followed by strong to
severe thunderstorms across the northern and central High Plains...

...Heat and humidity will be migrating eastwards across the Great
Lakes region towards the East Coast through the Holiday weekend,
with notable population centers entering the Major Heat Risk
category...

A small-scale mid-level vortex ejected from a thunderstorm complex
over the Mexican plateau interacted with tropical moisture in the
southern Plains and resulted in a devastating flash flooding event
in central Texas on Independence Day. This mid-level vortex has
slowed its forward motion as it meanders toward southeastern Texas
early this morning.  Although the coverage of the heavy rain in
central Texas has much reduced last evening, a highly localized
and slow-moving thunderstorm is bringing additional heavy
downpours and flash flooding just west of Austin, Texas early this
morning.  With the presence of the meandering mid-level vortex,
this slow-moving thunderstorm will prolong the highly localized
heavy downpours and flash flooding over portions of central Texas
this morning. The thunderstorm complex may begin to move/extend
toward southern Texas as the day progresses.

Farther north, clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms were
moving east across the upper Midwest and down across the central
Plains ahead of a cold front with a low pressure wave early this
morning.  As the associated upper-level trough exits the northern
Rockies, a round of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to
impact the northern High Plains tonight. The main threats will be
damaging winds and large hail per the Storm Prediction Center.  By
later on Sunday, another round of strong to severe thunderstorms
is expected to take shape, this time farther south across the
central High Plains, when the frontal boundary dips farther
southward into the central Plains.  Meanwhile, scattered showers
and thunderstorms will extend farther east across the
mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and through the Great Lakes into
interior New England ahead of and near the wavy front heading into
Monday morning.

Off the coast of the southeastern U.S., Tropical Depression Three
(T.D. 3) is forecast to intensify into a tropical storm today as
it moves generally north toward South Carolina.  Heavy rain and
embedded thunderstorms associated with T.D. 3 are forecast to
reach the coastal sections of the Carolinas and become more
frequent later today as the cyclone begins to interact with a weak
coastal front.  The center of the tropical cyclone is forecast to
make landfall over South Carolina early Sunday morning with the
bulk of the heavy rain and thunderstorms pushing further north
into the Carolinas through Sunday night/early Monday along with
gusty winds.  Isolated severe weather/tornadoes cannot be ruled
out either.

Temperatures will be on the rise from the Great Lakes to the East
Coast as mid-level ridging shifts across the region. This weekend
will see cities such as Chicago, Detroit, Indianapolis, and Boston
entering the Major Heat Risk category. High temperatures in the
low to middle 90s may produce dangerous heat impacts. Stay
hydrated and take cool breaks. The West will generally be cooler
than average, at least relative to July standards, as a trough and
surface front are located over the region.

Kong/Wilder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


$$