652
FXUS01 KWBC 111838
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
136 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Valid 00Z Wed Nov 12 2025 - 00Z Fri Nov 14 2025

...Unseasonably cold ending tonight across the Southeast Coast and
Florida as the West and Central U.S. warm up...

...Snow expected to continue across Lower Great Lakes and interior
Northeast/New England...

...Strong cyclone developing off the West Coast bringing heavy
rainfall and heavy mountain snow to the West Coast by late
Wednesday...

The deep Eastern U.S. upper-level trough will be shifting through
the Southeast into the Western Atlantic later today and
unseasonably cold air will moderate toward normal to only a few
degrees below average by tomorrow (Wednesday), though one more
cold night into the upper 30s/mid-40s will affect the Southeast
into the middle neck of the Florida Peninsula tonight, where
Freeze Warnings remain in effect. While temperatures improve,
northwesterly cool to cold air out of central Canada will cross
the warmer Great Lakes and support some solid Lake Effect plumes.
Additional 5-6" totals could occur with best locations downstream
of Lake Erie and Ontario.  Winter weather advisories and Lake
effect snow warnings are in effect.


Further west across the western 2/3rds of the CONUS, stronger
upper-level ridging will expand across the Mountain West into the
central Plains with 10-20 degrees above normal, especially with
the strong down-sloping east of the Rockies in the High Plains.
High temperatures in the 70s are expected for the next 2-3 days,
with only slightly below average temperatures along the California
Coast by Thursday. This cooling along the West Coast is in
association with the approach of the next Pacific system.  A solid
moisture plume will accompany the cold front, but a stronger
deepening upper-level trough will support a deepening surface
cyclone likely below 1000 millibars, but perhaps below 990
millibars increasing strong winds and directing said moisture
onshore.  Moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall will exist for
the coastal range of SW Oregon into California, as well as the
lower slopes of the Sierra Nevada.  A Marginal Risk of Excessive
Rainfall (level 1 of 4) are in place on Wednesday and Thursday for
the potential for increased rainfall totals and minor flooding
potential.  However, today Thursday, freezing levels will drop
across the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada.  Winds gusting
up to 100 mph and solid moisture flux will support enhanced snow
fall with 1 to 2 feet of snow possible along the crests, and 4 to
12 inches for mid-elevation locations along the range as the event
takes hold on Thursday toward the weekend.  A Winter Storm Watch
is in effect from Wednesday night through Friday morning.

Gallina


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$