753
FXUS01 KWBC 130801
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Valid 12Z Sun Jul 13 2025 - 12Z Tue Jul 15 2025

...Abundant moisture along a stalling frontal boundary will bring
heavy rain/flash flooding threats to the Mid-Atlantic, Middle
Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valleys, and ArkLaTex/Southern Plains the
next couple of days...

...Increasing heavy rainfall and flash flood threat for Florida
Monday...

..Heat builds over much of the eastern and western U.S. this
weekend with heat-related advisories and warnings in place...

A moisture rich Summer time air mass ahead of a stalling cold
front will continue to bring widespread thunderstorm chances
across much of the eastern and south-central U.S. The greatest
coverage of storms, and subsequent heavy rainfall risk, will
concentrate in vicinity of the frontal boundary Sunday including
portions of the Mid-Atlantic into Upstate New York, the Middle
Mississippi/Lower Ohio River Valleys, the ArkLaTex into
northern/central Texas, and the southern High Plains. Moisture
values near climatological maxima will help contribute to very
heavy downpours with high rain rates, and the stalling nature of
the boundary will promote repeated rounds/training of
thunderstorms leading to heavier rainfall totals. Slight Risks of
Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) are in place for these regions for
the risk of scattered flash flooding. The heaviest rainfall is
currently expected across portions of central Upstate New York/the
Finger Lakes and in central Texas.

The front will make some eastward progress Monday towards the East
Coast, with the storm threat shifting southward a bit into the
southern Mid-Atlantic and central North Carolina. Another Slight
Risk is in place for a continued threat of scattered flash
flooding. Further West, the boundary will remain relatively
stationary through the Middle Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley
southwest into portions of the southern Plains/Texas. More
scattered storms are expected compared to Sunday with an isolated
threat of flash flooding. Scattered storms can also be expected
broadly throughout the Southeast the next couple of days with the
exception of Florida, where a passing mid-level wave will help to
encourage greater storm coverage especially on Monday. Plentiful
moisture will be in place here as well with torrential downpours
possible, and a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall has been
included for scattered flash flooding, particularly for urban
areas. Elsewhere, moisture pooling along a frontal boundary and
the approach of a more potent upper-level trough will bring
thunderstorm chances to the northern tier of the country from the
Upper-Midwest west through the northern Plains/Rockies by later
Monday. Some isolated flash flooding will be possible here as
well. Thunderstorm chances continue across portions of the Four
Corners region, while the rest of the West will remain mostly dry.


Hot Summer temperatures will continue the next couple of days
across much of the eastern and western U.S. In the West, most
locations will be in the 90s to low 100s, with low 110s in the
Desert Southwest, as an upper-level ridge remains in place over
the region. The most hazardous heat is expected across the central
California Valleys, interior Pacific Northwest, and western Great
Basin, with areas of Major Heat Risk expected (level 3/4). This
indicates a level of heat dangerous to anyone without access to
adequate air conditioning or hydration, and many of these regions
remain under heat-related warnings and advisories. A cold front
will bring some cooler temperatures to portions of the interior
Pacific Northwest by Monday. Highs into the 90s and very muggy
conditions will also lead to an uncomfortable Sunday in the East,
with areas of Major Heat Risk expected across portions of the
Southeast as well as areas of Upstate New York/western New
England. A cold front passage will bring a little relief to
northern areas on Monday. Onshore flow will keep temperatures much
cooler in coastal New England. Portions of the Middle Mississippi
Valley into the central/southern Plains will see below average
temperatures (highs mainly in the 80s) and more temperate Summer
conditions with areas of widespread clouds/precipitation. Summer
time heat will return to portions of the Upper Midwest/northern
Plains as highs rise into the upper 80s/90s Sunday.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


$$