488
FNUS75 KSLC 101417
FWSSLC

Spot Forecast for Cottonwood fire...Usfs
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
817 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0800 MDT on August 10.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Monsoon moisture is firmly in place across the area with
daily convection each day beginning around noon and dissipating in the
late evening. Steering flow will keep storm motions in a southwest
to northeast direction. A majority of hi-res guidance has convection
staying off of the burn scar terrain for a majority of today, but
guidance has struggled to capture the details of these storms lately so
take that with a grain of salt. Storms will be moving at a generous
pace over the next couple of days so that will limit rain duration for
individual storms. The issue of training storms (one storm after the other)
moving over the same area will be the primary concern.

Winds during the day will be breezy 5-12 mph, but nearby thunderstorms
will be capable of producing gusty outflow winds with gusts in excess of
35 mph. These storms will also produce frequent lightning and there is
potential for small hail and brief heavy rain.

This moisture will persist through the week with a slightly drier airmass
moving in this weekend. The pattern remains the same over the next 7 to 10
days with small variations in moisture content each day, but the same diurnal
storm trend with occasional overnight convection possible. The overnight
convection remains the most uncertain aspect of this pattern as these features
typically don`t show up in model guidance until the day of.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent cloud cover).
                    Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................5 percent.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Chance of lightning.25 percent.
Max temperature.....85-88.
Min humidity........38-41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......9600 ft AGL (80-90th Percentile).
Transport winds.....West 15 to 16 mph.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (50-60 percent cloud cover).
                    Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    early in the evening. Patchy smoke in the
                    evening and overnight.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Chance of lightning.15 percent.
Min temperature.....60-63.
Max humidity........70-73 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Variable winds 2 to 6 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 14 mph.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (50-60 percent cloud cover) then
                    becoming mostly cloudy (70-80 percent cloud
                    cover). Chance of showers and thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
CWR.................20 percent.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Chance of lightning.35 percent.
Max temperature.....83-86.
Min humidity........49-52 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......9100 ft AGL (80-90th Percentile).
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 12 mph.

$$
Forecaster...Mahan
Requested by...Kendell white
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2619359.0/SLC
.DELDT 08/10/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL kendellwhite39@gmail.com