328
FXUS65 KSLC 121933
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
133 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing moisture over southern Utah will bring a round of
  high based showers and dry thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. By
  Sunday this moisture will allow for a better chance of showers
  and thunderstorms capable of wetting rainfall across southern
  Utah, with isolated high based showers and dry thunderstorms
  further north.

- High pressure will bring a return to hot and very dry conditions
  next week, with widespread valley HeatRisk values in the
  moderate range by the middle of next week.

- Gusty northwest winds combined with these hot and very dry
  conditions will bring a threat for critical fire weather across
  much of the area during the middle portion of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A generally zonal flow resides across the forecast
area early this afternoon, with the primarily belt of westerlies
remaining well to the north across the northern Rockies. A
diffuse low level baroclinic zone is keeping a "cooler" airmass
across northern Utah with temperatures near climo, while
temperatures across southern Utah are running 5-10 degrees above
normal.

An upper low noted off the Baja coast is pulling moisture
northward into the Desert Southwest at this time, and this
moisture will gradually spread northward into southern Utah by
midday Saturday. This will be sufficient for a round of high
based convection developing over the higher terrain of southern
Utah by early afternoon, then quickly spreading south and east
through the afternoon and early evening. Dry lightning and strong
outflow winds in excess of 40 mph will be common with this
initial round of activity. Hi-res guidance hints at a second
around of convection spreading out of Nevada and into southwest
Utah during the evening. This activity would be moving into a
more favorable environment for moderate to perhaps isolated heavy
rainfall, and have included "Possible" in the Flash Flood
Potential across southwest Utah accordingly.

Confidence is increasing this moisture will continue to deepen
Sunday bringing a better chance for showers and thunderstorms
capable of producing wetting rain, and in isolated cases moderate
to heavy rainfall across southern and perhaps portions of central
Utah, thus have included "Possible" wording in the Flash Flood
Potential for all areas. Along the northern fringe of this
moisture axis, isolated high based convection is expected across
the Wasatch Plateau/western Uintas, and can`t rule out an isolated
thunderstorm or two off the Oquirrhs impacting the central and
southern Wasatch Front.

Mid level ridging off the Pacific Coast will build inland during
the early-middle portion of next week, bringing a return to hot
and very dry conditions. Forecast temperatures exceed 105F in and
around the St George area Tuesday/Wednesday, which are the hottest
thus far this year and will boost the Heat Risk into at least the
moderate category. Northern Utah will remain just downstream from
the ridge axis, resulting in northwest flow which will "limit"
temperatures to the low 90s across lower valleys. Northwest winds
downstream from this ridge axis will also result in periods of
gusty winds across northern and eastern Utah Tuesday/Wednesday
resulting in areas of critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Northwest winds will continue through the
afternoon and evening hours. Drainage winds (typical nocturnal
southerly winds) will struggle to develop tonight and may be more
variable than normal between 04Z and 12Z. Northerly winds will
redevelop between 12-14Z Saturday.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Generally clear skies with
breezy westerly winds will continue across many terminals through
the evening before shifting to typical nocturnal winds after
sunset.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER, Issued 103 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026...
A mild and very dry airmass remains in place across Utah this
afternoon. Gusty westerly winds will result in elevated to locally
critical fire weather conditions through this afternoon across
areas east of Highway 89 and north of I-70. Otherwise with this
dry airmass in place poor overnight RH recovery below 30 percent
is forecast tonight across most of western, central and southern
Utah.

High based moisture will spread into southern Utah during the day
Saturday, as a weak weather system moves into the Desert
Southwest. Widely scattered high based showers and dry
thunderstorms are expected by early Saturday afternoon across the
higher terrain of southern Utah, with storms spreading south and
east during the afternoon and early evening hours. Dry lightning
and strong outflow winds in excess of 40 mph can be expected with
these storms. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for Zones 494, 496
and 498, with lightning coverage expected to be more isolated
further west across zones 495 and 497. This moisture will increase
on Sunday maintaining showers and thunderstorms with a better
chance for wetting rains across southern Utah. The leading edge of
this moisture will spread into central and perhaps portions of
northern Utah Sunday afternoon accompanied by a threat for
isolated dry thunderstorms.

High pressure will bring a warming and drying trend heading into
next week, with the hottest temperatures of the year thus far
across southern Utah and well above normal temperatures across
northern and central Utah. Very low daytime RH and poor overnight
recovery will be common across much of the state through at least
the middle of next week. With an increase in northwest winds over
northern and eastern Utah critical fire weather conditions are
expected as early as Monday afternoon, with a better chance
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for UTZ494-496-498.

WY...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Seaman
AVIATION...Kruse
FIRE WEATHER...Seaman

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity