435
FXUS65 KSLC 281007
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
407 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry conditions are expected to continue
into early next week, with the potential for a modest moisture
surge arriving by midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12z Monday)...Early morning satellite and H5
analysis depict low amplitude troughing over the northern Rockies
region, and low amplitude ridging across the desert southwest.
Locally the forecast region remains within the delineation of the
two, and sensible weather will reflect minimal change vs. Friday
as such. Above normal temps (+5-8F) and dry conditions will be the
norm.

Do note a subtle mid/high level moisture max associated with
subtle convergence within the cyclonic flow over southern Idaho,
and expect this to translate across northern portions as the day
progresses. Just enough moisture advection to produce a bit more
elevated CU across northeastern Utah and the UT/NV border during
the peak heating hours, but not expecting much in the way of
tangible development with this. This moisture does look to remain
draped across the north through Sunday with a low end potential
of high based convection focused over the northeast once again in
the afternoon, but the main takeaway will continue to focus on the
hot/dry conditions in place.

.LONG TERM (After 12z Monday)...Long term forecast period begins
with a ridge of high pressure extending through the Four Corners
region and a somewhat cutoff lobe of a trough coming ashore on the
California coast. H7 temps of around 16C to 19C associated with the
ridge will drive anomalously high temperatures at the surface as
well, with afternoon highs areawide running about 7-15F above
climatological normal. While still seemingly insufficient to require
heat related headlines, those spending much time outdoors should be
sure to stay well hydrated, take breaks as needed, and have ways to
cool down. With the approaching trough, the area will also see a
gradual increase to southerly flow, and in turn some increase in
lower end available moisture. The strong subsidence of the ridge
should suppress most activity, but CAMs continue to show some amount
of isolated convective development as this moisture increases,
especially off of the higher terrain. With the initial moisture
surge pretty limited and more mid level in nature, anticipate any
convection would be pretty high based and generally limit more
significant rainfall concerns (though those going to/near rain
sensitive areas should still remain weather aware), while posing a
more modest threat of gusty outflow winds.

The aforementioned synoptic features remain the primary influences
upon Tuesday`s weather as well. Temperatures don`t change too
significantly, maybe a couple degrees upwards at areas north and a
couple degrees downward at areas south, but overall another above
normal day. With the continued moisture tap, ensembles support a
slight uptick to available moisture though, so may see a
corresponding slight increase in daytime convective coverage.

Wednesday into Thursday will see the coastal trough begin to make
more of a push into the Great Basin with subsequent ejection
northward through the forecast region and back into the primary
longerwave pattern. Monsoonal moisture push will be more marked each
of these days, so with the increasing influence of the trough in
combination with daytime heating, anticipate convection to become a
bit more widespread. Additionally, the trough will help introduce
effective shear on the order of 20-30 kts or so Wednesday, which
will aid in a bit more organization to convection. Wouldn`t be
surprised to see a stronger storm or two develop, and with the
additional moisture, could see more of a localized heavy rain threat
at those typically sensitive areas (slot canyons, typically dry
washes, slickrock areas, burn scars). Shear will lessen and moisture
will decrease a bit for the western portions of Utah Thursday, but
still remain elevated enough to result in scattered convective
development especially along/east of the high terrain. With the
trough/moisture and associated increase in precip/cloud cover, temps
will trend downwards Wednesday and Thursday.

Less confidence noted deeper into the forecast, but model guidance
continues to show loose consensus on some sort of secondary trough
digging into a similar area Friday/Saturday that initial trough
started off at earlier in the week. Pattern doesn`t look as
supportive of a more robust continuation of monsoonal type moisture
advection, and ensemble PWAT anomalies dip accordingly, but still
appears enough moisture remains that daytime heating will have
potential to kick off some isolated convection. As such, those
planning on hosting or attending any July 4th festivities will want
to at least keep an eye on trends in the forecast as well as the
eventual evolution of the weather Friday. While still mild, temps
look to be a bit more reasonable with afternoon highs forecast near
normal to around 5F above normal across the southern half of the
area, and around 5F-10F above normal across the northern half.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Winds are expected to remain light and variable
through 16z prior to prevailing from the northwest for the
remainder of the day. Said, not looking for wind speeds to remain
at or above 7 knots until deeper mixing occurs after 18z. VFR
conditions will be maintained, but mid/upper clouds will trend to
increase slightly this afternoon and evening.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail
across the airspace outside of areas downstream of large wildfires
in the south. For those isolated areas (e.g. BCE) early morning
and overnight stability will again allow for smoke to drive
localized IFR/LIFR conditions. High pressure continues to dominate
the area with weak gradients allowing terrain-driven and
thermally-driven flows to dominate. Saturday afternoon will see
pm buildups over northeastern Utah, and along the UT/NV border,
but these will remain high based and lacking precip.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Similar conditions anticipated today vs. Friday, as
the region remains between high pressure oriented over the desert
southwest, and a storm system rippling across the northern
Rockies region. Bottom line in the short term, temps will continue
to remain a skosh above normal areawide today, generally +5-8
degrees, with min RH pushing single digits in the south, and low
to mid teens in the north. Peak heating hours will mix down wind
gust in the 20-25 mph range elevated areas in the south and east,
but sporadically. Elsewhere, generally slope driven and lighter.

Warming trend will tick up later this weekend into early next
week as high pressure builds further north across the district.
Minimal change in the already bone-dry RH is expected, but temps
do look to push more into the +10-15 degree range for this time of
year Mon-Tue.

Moisture will build in from south to north Tue-Wed bringing a net
increase of cloud cover, RH, subtly cooler temps, and
afternoon/eve high based shower/thunderstorm potential. ATTM this
moisture surge looks modest, with any storm activity favoring
lower end rain potential and more elevated gusty outflow wind
potential for areas over and adjacent to higher terrain.

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Merrill/Warthen

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