Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
028 FXUS65 KSLC 222204 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 404 PM MDT Thu May 22 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Breezy afternoon conditions prevail today and Friday as a trough lingers over the northwestern U.S. An additional weak system pushes into the region over the weekend bringing a chance for showers over the high terrain and cooler afternoon temperatures area-wide. A warming trend reestablishes early next week. && .SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Saturday)...A weak shortwave trough currently lifting through eastern Idaho/ northern Utah will continue to push a weak surface cold front into northern Utah/ southwest Wyoming this evening and overnight. While this front will be dry, the biggest influence this will have across the northern area will be the cooling of temperatures by about 3-5 degrees, with little to no cooling across the central and southern areas. Even then, high temperatures will still be running around 5 degrees above normal across northern Utah with central and southern Utah remaining 5-7 degrees above average. Tomorrow, the frontal boundary will remain draped across northern Utah/ southwest Wyoming with a disorganized longwave trough lingering over the northwestern U.S. As such, southwest winds south of the frontal boundary will remain elevated as the trough lingers. Wind gusts of upwards of 25 to 30 mph are expected during the afternoon hours from about Juab County southward. This, combined with afternoon humidity values in the upper single digits to low-teens, will create near-critical fire weather conditions across portions of central and southern Utah through Friday afternoon. .LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Saturday), Issued 338 AM MDT... A weakening trough will be moving through the area to start the long term period. Southerly winds ahead of the trough will still be gusting across the southeast portion of the area with low relative humidity. Scattered showers and afternoon convection will be possible across the northern 2/3rds of the CWA on Saturday. Instability will be lacking which will help to limit the strength of storms that do develop. However, drier lower levels across central Utah with inverted V sounding profiles could create a low end risk for some microburst winds. More showers and convection is possible on Sunday across the northeast portion of the area as this trough splits and potentially develops a weak cutoff low across the four corners. Temperatures begin to warm upwards of 10-15 degrees above normal by early next week as a more amplified ridge builds across the Intermountain West. One wrinkle in the forecast that will keep small PoPs across the area will be that some moisture sticks around as the airmass doesn`t completely dry out. This moisture could tap into some enhanced lift from a closed low that tries to develop across the Great Basin and slowly lingers through early next week. && .AVIATION....KSLC...Northwesterly winds will continue, likely decreasing in speed after ~02-03z. Winds may remain northwesterly overnight around 5kts, though could transition to light and southeasterly or light and variable after 10-12z. VFR conditions will continue with mostly clear skies. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...A very weak cold front will slowly shift southward through the afternoon into central Utah, likely diminishing heading into the evening hours. Gusty southwesterly winds will continue through roughly 01-03z ahead of this front, peaking around 25-35kts across portions of southern Utah. Behind the front, winds will favor a more northerly direction. && && .FIRE WEATHER...Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will persist over the southern and central area through the next 24-hours as a shallow shortwave trough brushes across northern Utah. Breezy southwest winds this afternoon in the southern two-thirds of the area will taper off overnight, but increase in speeds again during the afternoon on Friday and combine with minimum RH in the upper single digits to low-teens. For northern Utah, a weak cold front progresses through the area through the evening and overnight hours, bringing cooler temperatures and north to northwest winds. By Saturday, a weak trough will push into the eastern Great Basin region and introduce cooler temperatures area-wide (through remaining near to slightly above normal). In addition to cooler temperatures, increased lower to mid-level moisture will be introduced, mainly across the northern and eastern area, bringing an increased chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Since a significant moisture profile will be lacking, expecting an overall low chance of wetting rain, raising the overall concern for isolated dry lightning. This cooler and (generally) wetter trend will persist through Sunday before a warming and drying trend continues early in the week. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Webber LONG TERM...Mahan AVIATION...Cunningham FIRE WEATHER...Webber For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity