850
FXUS65 KSLC 171728
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1128 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1047 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026...

- A warming trend will continue through the week.

- Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will occur
  across central and southern Utah Tuesday with enhanced
  southwesterly winds coupled with low humidity.

- Moisture increases late in the weekend and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION, Issued 1107 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026...
Hot and dry conditions will largely persist through
mid-week as Utah remains on the western periphery of a broad ridge
across the southern US. This evening, a very weak wave grazing our
area will result in scattered showers across northern Utah and
southwest Wyoming, likely persisting through the overnight hours
and leading to periods of squirrelly, breezy winds. Another weak
shortwave trough crossing through MT/ID on Tuesday will draw a bit
more moisture northward into eastern Utah and thus produce
scattered afternoon thunderstorms capable of producing outflow
winds up to 40 mph. Southwesterly flow will also increase
slightly, resulting in locally critical fire weather conditions.
Isolated thunderstorms will redevelop Wednesday and Thursday
afternoons over higher terrain with daytime heating and modest
moisture sticking around.

Following the passage of the shortwave trough, high pressure will
begin to strengthen first overhead, then shift eastward by Friday
with the ridge axis lingering over the Four Corners heading into
the weekend. This is a favorable setup for monsoonal moisture to
be advected northward into Utah, therefore increasing chances for
thunderstorms and flash flooding beginning Friday and extending
likely through the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...

KSLC...Potential for a slow and delayed wind shift at terminal
around 19-21Z Monday. Skies remain mostly clear to partly cloudy
with bases generally above 10 kft. Winds to shift back SE around 04Z
Tuesday. A passing system overnight will bring a low (20-30%) chance
of showers and modest gusts between around 06-12Z Tuesday.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Terminals to see diurnally
normal wind shifts and fairly light magnitudes (generally less than
10 kts). Some higher elevation and more exposed terminals may see
occasional gusts to around 20 kts or so. Skies remain mostly clear
to partly cloudy and VFR. At northern terminals, a passing system
will bring a 20-30% chance of some shower activity between 06-12Z
Tuesday. A few modest gusts may also accompany any such showers.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER, Issued 347 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026...
A drier airmass across the state today will stifle
development of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but a weak
disturbance brushing across northern Utah this evening and
overnight will result in a line of nocturnal showers and
thunderstorms. Dry low levels will support potential for dry
lightning strikes and gusty and erratic outflow winds with these
storms. Conditions become increasingly hotter and drier through
the remainder of the work week as high pressure strengthens across
the region, with continued critically dry conditions across lower
elevations. Increasing southwesterly winds Tuesday and Wednesday
will result in areas of elevated to locally critical fire weather
conditions, mainly for lower elevations across central and
southern Utah. While overall drier conditions prevail through
Friday, lingering mid-level moisture and sufficient instability
from daytime heating will result in daily chances for afternoon
showers and thunderstorms through the week. Monsoonal moisture
looks to spread back into the region this weekend, resulting in an
upward trend in humidity, wetting rain chances, and thunderstorm
probability.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Cunningham
AVIATION...Warthen
FIRE WEATHER...Whitlam

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity