Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
437 FXUS65 KSLC 010959 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 359 AM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS...A very dry and seasonably warm airmass will remain over the area over the next several days. && .SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Sunday)...The upper trough that was over the Great Basin yesterday is lifting northward into Idaho and Montana this morning. High pressure centered over Colorado and New Mexico is keeping Utah and southwest Wyoming under a dry southwest flow aloft. Seeing slightly less dry conditions over northwest and southeast Utah where a small amount of moisture has intruded, but conditions otherwise remain extremely dry. In the wake of the trough, temperatures will run near normal for this time of year. Winds will slowly weaken into the weekend as the ridge axis gradually makes its way west, with the flow aloft subtly veering. A weak and disorganized trough will slide through the flow Friday night through Saturday bringing a minor increase in instability, but conditions will remain quite dry. Cannot rule out some afternoon/evening high based showers and thunderstorms. They will produce little if any rainfall, with gusty winds being the main threat with any storms that develop. .LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Sunday)...The forecast area will be under generally zonal flow on Sunday, resulting in a nearly quintessential August day. Expect temperatures near climatological normals, typical afternoon breezes, and dry conditions across Utah and southwest Wyoming. This zonal flow will be brief, with ensembles strongly supportive of a shortwave trough digging into the Great Basin on Monday. This system is expected to introduce increased southwesterly flow aloft, which will result in gusty afternoon winds to 30 mph and very dry conditions across the region, especially across central, southern, and eastern portions of the Beehive State. These conditions will lead to heightened fire weather concerns on Monday. The aforementioned trough lifts northeastward out of the region Tuesday, with a stout ridge filling in across the southwestern US in its place. Moisture riding up the western periphery of this ridge on Tuesday into Wednesday will promote increased chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mainly across southern Utah. Ensemble cluster guidance indicates this ridging pattern will remain a dominant feature through the end of the week. && .AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions to prevail through the period. Light southeasterly winds continue this morning ahead of a wind shift to the northwest between 18 and 19z. Expect breezy northwesterly winds to continue through around 04z, becoming light out of the southeast thereafter. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Dry conditions across the airspace will maintain VFR conditions for all regional terminals throughout the period. Winds remain generally light and terrain driven this morning, with typical breezes developing this afternoon. Some stronger gusts to 20-25 kts are possible this afternoon for southern Utah terminals. && .FIRE WEATHER...High pressure remains centered over Colorado and New Mexico, keeping Utah under a very dry southwest flow. Winds will relax a bit today into the weekend with a Great Basin trough exiting the area, but winds will still be strong enough over the mountains of central and southern Utah to produce areas of critical fire weather conditions. Disturbances moving in the southwest flow will allow for a few high based afternoon storms capable of producing gusty winds, primarily over northwest and southeast Utah where the airmass is not quite as dry. Another trough is expected to move into the Great Basin by Monday, resulting in increasingly breezy southwest flow and increasing the threat of critical fire weather conditions. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT Saturday for UTZ493-496. WY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan LONG TERM/AVIATION...Whitlam For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity