122
FXUS65 KSLC 061011
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
411 AM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Pattern will support one more unsettled day on Friday,
with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing through the
day, primarily across central and southern Utah. Drier and warmer
conditions return for the weekend on into the upcoming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Sunday)...Morning water vapor analysis
shows an elongated trough extending into the intermountain west.
Moisture associated with a split off/shearing out lobe is
continuing to stream through overhead across the south, while
another subtle impulse within the main trough is continuing to
gradually push into the the UT/ID border region. In both cases
though, lack of instability appears to be resulting in only a
handful of very widely isolated showers, so mostly just some
continued cloud cover.

This trough will serve as the dominant forecast influence for yet
another day Friday. Continuing on through the morning, CAM
guidance continues to hint at just enough forcing from the impulse
approaching from the north to trigger an increase in some
isolated showers across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming.
Pushing further into the day, this impulse will continue to shift
southward, interacting with with better axis of moisture across
central and southern Utah as well as the other lobe shifting in
from the southwest. With the increase in diurnal heating and
associated instability, will see development/increasing coverage
of shower and thunderstorm activity. While deeper available
moisture is starting to trend downward, ensembles maintain PWAT
values in the 150-200% range across the southern half of Utah or
so, and as such it will be another day with a few storms capable
of periods of heavy rainfall in addition to lightning and some
modestly gusty outflow winds. Activity will once again wane in
strength and coverage late evening on into the overnight hours.

In terms of impacts Friday, pattern looks to once again primarily
threaten rain sensitive locations (burn scars, typically dry
washes, slot canyons, slickrock areas) with a localized flash
flood threat. The WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook once again
carries a "Marginal Risk" (categorical 1 of 5) for much of central
and southern Utah, and the local Flash Flood Potential rating
carries "Possible" values for many parks/recreation areas
accordingly. While lightning and inclement weather can otherwise
affect anyone recreating outdoors, extra caution is advised if
planning anything that takes one into/around any of those
aforementioned rain sensitive areas.

Through Saturday the trough will begin to further shift out of
the region and the axis of lingering moisture will continue to
scour out. While a few isolated instability driven showers may
develop in the afternoon across southern Utah in this lingering
moisture, coverage and strength is expected to be much lower than
that of prior days, and in turn the threat of more impactful
weather is also much lower. More noticeable will be the increasing
H7 temps, and in turn the corresponding increase in afternoon
high temps by several degrees. Forecast highs Saturday carry mid
70s in southwest Wyoming, mid 80s to around 90 for the Wasatch
Front and most western Utah valleys, and mid to upper 90s across
lower Washington County and lower elevations around Zion NP.
Climatologically, these values come in around 5-10 degrees above
normal for the time of year.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Saturday)...An upper-level ridge passing
across the Great Basin will result in overall subsidence and
warming temperatures through at least early Monday, with Sunday`s
high temperatures expected to reach the upper-80s/low-90s across
most valleys and near 100F in St. George. While conditions will be
mostly dry, a passing weak closed low across southern Utah will
bring low chances for showers/thunderstorms across the southern
mountains on Monday afternoon, which may be capable of gusty
outflow winds given a dry sub-cloud layer.

Moisture will start to increase across the area on Tuesday with
an approaching shortwave trough, though chances for showers and
thunderstorms remain low and likely confined to higher terrain.
These chances will increase across northern Utah/southwest Wyoming
on Wednesday as this shortwave trough grazes northern Utah.
Although confidence has increased with the track and depth of this
shortwave, there still remains plenty of spread with moisture
availability across the north, still somewhere between 0.6-0.8" of
PWAT. This will ultimately determine the coverage of storms as
well as any chances for localized heavy rainfall. Modestly active
weather may return again next Friday with another shortwave
trough, though these details still remain fuzzy at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Light, southeasterly winds are likely to shift to
northwesterly around 18-19z, with prevailing VFR conditions.
There is a low (20%) chance of a few showers developing off the
southern end of the Oquirrh Mountains between ~18-21z, moving
eastward off the terrain into the Salt Lake Valley.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Northern sites should remain
fairly quiet today, with only isolated showers reaching as far
north as KSVR-KHCR-KEVW at best. Across the rest of the area,
scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop after 18-19z, and
will be capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds to
25-35kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Anomalous moisture will linger on Friday, resulting
in a similar evolution of showers and thunderstorms to that of
the last several days. Activity will increase late morning on
through the day, with a few thunderstorms capable of frequent
lightning and periods of heavy rain. With overall moisture a bit
less than previous days, total coverage will be slightly lower,
but convection will be slightly higher based in nature and also
more capable of producing some gusty and erratic outflow winds. In
general, activity will favor central and southern Utah. Moisture
further decreases on Saturday, and weather features otherwise
responsible for the active pattern start to shift away from the
region. As such, expect drier conditions across the area along
with rising temperatures. Mild and largely dry conditions then
persist into next week.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Warthen
LONG TERM...Cunningham
AVIATION...Cunningham
FIRE WEATHER...Warthen

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity