Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
635 FXUS65 KSLC 232039 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 239 PM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025 .SYNOPSIS...While a weak system will brush through Tuesday and Wednesday, expect warming and largely dry conditions. A building ridge of high pressure then yields continued warming into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Wednesday)...A weak and largely dry midlevel trough continues to churn throughout the western Great Basin this afternoon. Placed between this feature and a broader ridge extending across much of the eastern and southern CONUS, locally we`re seeing a return of deep southwesterly flow aloft. This is helping to drive warming conditions across much of the forecast area. Additionally, ahead of an ill defined remnant boundary stalled loosely between about Milford to Vernal where better mixing is realized, seeing another day with some modest gusts in the 20-30 mph range. Given the better mixing, temperatures ahead of this boundary are running generally near to just slightly below normal, whereas behind the boundary temps fall more in the 5-10F below normal range. Through Tuesday the midlevel trough very gradually translates eastward nearer to the forecast region. Deep southwesterly flow is enhanced a bit more, so will see a continuation of the warming trend and some modestly gusty conditions across southern to eastern portion of the area. With the warming, afternoon high marks will push back near normal across the majority of the area. Models do also swing an embedded shortwave impulse through west to northwest Utah from mid morning to early evening. Moisture is quite limited, but high resolution CAMs do now show some widely isolated high-based showers from roughly the West Desert northward, with highest coverage near the UT/NV/ID border area. Not anticipating much in the way of rainfall with these, but with the higher based nature, could see some gusty outflow winds at nearby areas. Remaining showers decrease in coverage late Tuesday evening on into the overnight hours. .LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Wednesday), Issued 424 AM MDT... Hot and dry conditions will be the main story for the long-term period, with high temperatures in the 90s expected across most valleys from Thursday onward. Wednesday will likely be the "coolest" of the long-term thanks to a weak trough crossing the state, though temperatures will still be quite a bit warmer than prior days as warm air returns. Despite a fairly dry air mass, a few mountain showers/thunderstorms can`t be completely ruled out on Wednesday afternoon. The upper-level pattern becomes more zonal after Wednesday, with positive height anomalies building into the area for Thursday and beyond. While prior model guidance favored a grazing trough in the Friday-Saturday timeframe, more recent model runs (now 90% of ensemble members) suggest this trough takes a path further north across Idaho. Although this feature looks less impressive now, we may still see a slight increase in southwesterly winds, particularly on Friday. Otherwise, expect hot and dry conditions to continue through at least the weekend. Next week, forecast confidence decreases, with the potential for another longwave trough developing perhaps sometime mid-week. && .AVIATION...KSLC...Generally light northwesterly winds continue through roughly 06z before transitioning southeast. VFR conditions continue, with dry conditions and scattered mid-to-high level cloud cover through the remainder of the period. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Winds remain generally light across the airspace today, following typical diurnal trends. VFR conditions prevail with some high clouds passing through northern Utah, with otherwise mostly clear skies. KBCE remains the exception where smoke from the nearby France Canyon fire may bring periodic VIS/CIG reductions to MVFR/IFR. && .FIRE WEATHER...Some areas of elevated fire weather conditions exist this afternoon across portions of southern and eastern Utah, mainly east of Highway 89, as a weak weather system approaching the region introduces increased southwesterly flow. On Tuesday, afternoon winds will trend a bit higher across southern and eastern Utah as the aforementioned system pushes through the region. These winds, in conjunction with a dry airmass already in place, will result in elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions across southern and eastern Utah. Otherwise, expect a general warming and drying trend through the remainder of the week. Daytime RH and overnight recoveries are expected to trend downward across the entire state through Friday, most significantly across southern Utah where recovery will be little to none by the latter half of the week. A weak disturbance brings increased mixing across the region on Friday, which will result in an uptick in afternoon winds, especially across southwest and south- central Utah. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Warthen LONG TERM...Cunningham AVIATION...Whitlam FIRE WEATHER...Whitlam For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity