708
FXUS65 KSLC 240119
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
719 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1006 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026...


- Drier air moves in tomorrow, limiting chances for afternoon
  showers and thunderstorms across northern Utah, with modest
  potential continuing across southern and central Utah.

- Southerly flow redeveloping Friday will allow monsoonal moisture
  to gradually fill back in statewide through the weekend, with an
  increasing flash flood threat returning as a result.

- Heat concerns return to Utah starting this Friday, lasting through
  at least Monday as temperatures rise across the region with
  anomalously warm overnight temperatures offering little relief.

&&

.DISCUSSION, Issued 136 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026...
Despite PWATs dipping across the area this
afternoon, ample moisture remains in the lower levels with
sufficient dynamics for afternoon convection in place. Storm
coverage will be more isolated in nature than past days, and
mainly favoring southern Utah and far eastern Utah. Upper level
flow remains lethargic, allowing storms that form along terrain to
drift slowly and produce locally heavy rainfall and potentially
impactful short-term accumulations.

This drier airmass will be short lived as a shortwave trough
quickly ejects into the Central Plains Friday and shifts the ridge
axis back into a better position to drive moisture well into
northern parts of Utah and southwestern Wyoming. With that,
probabilities increase for more widespread showers and
thunderstorms, though the highest chances both for initiation and
precipitation intensity are over central and southern Utah. As
such, these areas are being highlighted for a heightened flash
flood risk, with the collaborated Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO)
incorporating areas generally east of I-15 and south of I-70 into
a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) for excessive rainfall. The axis of
this broad ridge gradually shifts back eastward through the
weekend into early next week, resulting in continued monsoonal
moisture transport through this period that will bring continued
chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms capable of
producing flash flooding each day.

In addition to a return to wetter conditions, this pattern
will bring an increase in temperatures especially across northern
Utah Friday into the weekend as the ridge not only shifts but
H5 heights continue to climb as the ridge amplifies. Daytime
highs soar back to the century mark for many locations across the
Wasatch Front, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s
offering very little relief. As such, widespread Major HeatRisk
emerges through this period, indicating an elevated threat for
heat illness especially for those without adequate cooling and
hydration. Areas where cloud cover and remnant surface moisture
will see the least overnight cooling, and there is indication that
some areas with lows sitting around 80F could reach Extreme
HeatRisk (~20% chance). If outdoors for festivities this weekend,
make sure to stay hydrated and take breaks in the shade or air
conditioning often.


&&

.AVIATION...

KSLC...Mostly VFR conditions will persist for the KSLC terminal
through the period. Conditions will remain dry and stable through
the overnight before convection develops tomorrow afternoon around
the terminal. There is ~30% chance of convection impacting the
terminal between 19Z-02Z with gusty and erratic winds, frequent
lightning, and brief heavy rain possible. Otherwise, light diurnal
winds will continue.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Mostly VFR conditions will
persist for the entire airspace through the period. Convection
across the south is slowly dissipating with mostly dry and stable
conditions through the overnight for all of the terminals.
Convection re-develops tomorrow afternoon with ~30% chance of
terminal impacts from lightning, gusty and erratic winds, and brief
heavy rain. Otherwise, winds will remain light and diurnally driven.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER, Issued 136 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026...
Moisture has pulled back to the south and east today,
limiting the spatial extent of the showers and thunderstorms
expected. However, terrain will help with initiation across
southern and central Utah, and slow upper level flow will allow
these storms to drift slowly and increase the chances of wetting
rains with the stronger cells. This drying will also increase the
threat for outflow winds, with storms capable of producing erratic
gusts up to 40 mph on Thursday and up to 50 mph on Friday, in
addition to the moderate-heavy rain and lightning.

Overall, minimum RH across the area will be a bit drier, reaching
near- critical values during the afternoon across many valleys,
with marginal overnight recoveries (35-50% for those same
valleys). Expect temperatures across northern Utah to run quite a
bit warmer through the weekend and well into next week as the
ridge crests over the region.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
     evening for UTZ103>107.

WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...WESSLER
AVIATION...Mahan
FIRE WEATHER...WESSLER

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