796
FXUS65 KSLC 160858
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
258 AM MDT Sat Aug 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Another round of thunderstorms is expected across the
region, with a drying trend Sunday into early next week. The next
threat for thunderstorms will be Wednesday into Thursday, with the
potential for a deeper monsoon surge lurking late in the week into
next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Early morning upper air and satellite analysis
indicates a shortwave trough is shifting north and east across
Wyoming. A subtle shortwave ridge is likely shifting into southern
Utah. Meanwhile, the ever present Pacific trough remains in place.

Looking at a wide variety of guidance, the majority of solutions
suggest a weakly subsident environment will remain over much of
the state through the day Saturday...likely suppressing convection
to an extent both in coverage and depth. Without a clear forcing
mechanism, convection will likely be most widespread across the
higher terrain and drift northeastward into the adjacent valleys.

Most guidance suggests both typical genesis locations of the
Oquirrh Mountains adjacent to the southwestern portion of the Salt
Lake Valley and the mountains west of Utah Lake will bring
isolated thunderstorms to Salt Lake and Utah Counties this
afternoon.

By Sunday, drier air will build into the region under southwest
flow. This will continue through at least Monday. By Tuesday, the
upper level ridge will shift eastward, allowing for mid-level
moisture advection to begin across the Great Basin. For Tuesday,
this will be mainly an increase humidities across western and
southern Utah (~60% of ensemble members increase western Utah PWs
above 0.60", 80% exceed this value along the Utah/Arizona border
region).

By Wednesday, sufficient moisture will be in place to bring the
threat of thunderstorms to the southern Utah mountains
(represented by 80% of ensemble members). By Thursday, the
majority of ensemble members continue to deepen this moisture and
spread convection across the remainder of the higher terrain and
adjacent valleys.

Looking at the longer term, the majority of ensemble members
support an ideal upper level ridge position to bring a more
energetic monsoon surge into the region through the next weekend
and into early the next week.

&&

.AVIATION....KSLC...Winds will generally remain southerly for the
TAF period, though there is a small chance that winds could shift
to westerly briefly between 21-00z. Additionally, from 20-01z,
isolated thunderstorms may form near the terminal with gusty and
erratic winds to around 30kts. VFR conditions resume following
01z.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING... Gusty winds out of the south-
southwest prevail across all terminals once again. Best chances for
thunderstorms appear to be at our southern UT sites, though sites
across the Wasatch front may experience dry thunderstorms following
20z with gusty and erratic winds to 30kts. VFR conditions across all
sites should resume following 01z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Another round of thunderstorms is expected
Saturday afternoon and evening. Conditions will be less conducive
to widespread thunderstorms as an area of weak high pressure is
overhead during the afternoon. That said, expect the best coverage
of convection across the higher terrain and adjacent valleys. As
the broader area of high pressure moves into the region
Sunday...expect falling humidities and worsening overnight
recoveries Sunday into Monday. By Tuesday, mid-level moisture will
begin to increase, though this looks to only slowly increase
humidities rather than providing any precipitation. By Wednesday
afternoon, expect an increased threat of thunderstorms across
southern Utah, spreading across much of the state by Thursday.
There is some potential for a stronger monsoon surge Friday into
the next week.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Kruse/Worster

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity