476
FXUS65 KSLC 091856
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1256 PM MDT Sun Aug 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1211 PM MDT Sun Aug 9 2026...


- Dangerous heat will persist across portions of northern Utah and
  the low desert of southern Utah on Sunday before high
  temperatures trend lower.

- A marginal risk of excessive rainfall will continue across much
  of Utah through the next five days. Expect an increased threat
  of flash flooding, primarily across slot canyons, normally dry
  washes, slick rock areas, and recent burn scars.

&&

.DISCUSSION, Issued 1211 PM MDT Sun Aug 9 2026...
High pressure residing over the Four Corners
continues to allow monsoonal moisture to move into the region
from the south. This moisture is primarily limited to the mid-
levels currently, with dry low levels supporting the threat of
strong outflow winds as thunderstorms develop again this
afternoon. Convection will be fairly widespread today, with model
soundings suggesting MUCAPE around 200-500 J/kg coupled with
minimal shear and steep low-level lapse rates...a favorable dry
microburst environment. The HREF maximum suggests upper-end wind
gusts around 50-60 mph, particularly across western and southern
Utah where instability is the greatest.

Similar to yesterday, flash flooding remains a threat across the
area despite these dry low levels and slightly faster storm
motions today. The highest rainfall rates yesterday were up to
0.50"/hour, with high-res guidance suggesting similar rates today.
Although storm motions are faster, convective coverage is a bit
higher today, resulting in this increased threat of flash flooding
over sensitive areas.

Monsoonal moisture will continue to gradually increase through at
least Wednesday, with storms trending wetter alongside a higher
flash flood threat. Even after Wednesday, although confidence is
a bit lower, moisture is likely to remain elevated heading into
next weekend. A developing trough over the west coast is the
reason for this lower forecast confidence, which may nudge the
ridge and main moisture plume eastward.

As for heat across the region, although high temperatures have
decreased by a couple degrees today, nighttime cloud cover left minimum
temperatures this morning only dipping into the upper-70s along
the Wasatch Front and low- to mid-80s down in St. George. Heat
effects are cumulative, therefore have continued the going Extreme
Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories for these areas, which are set
to expire later this evening as high temperatures continue to
trend lower through the week. In fact, forecast highs are
currently down to the low-80s along the Wasatch Front by Friday as
that trough develops; this is 10-15 degrees below normal.


&&

.AVIATION, Issued 1211 PM MDT Sun Aug 9 2026...


KSLC...Mostly VFR conditions will persist through the remainder of
the period for the KSLC terminal. Afternoon convection will develop
across the Oquirrh Mountains with most of the convection staying in
the southern half of the valley as it moves to the east. Pyrocumulus
will develop this afternoon across the terrain east of the terminal.
Decaying storms moving in from the west desert this evening between
02-06Z will bring a threat for gusty outflow winds and rain showers
with limited embedded lightning. Conditions dry overnight with light
southerly drainage flow developing. Convection redevelops tomorrow
afternoon with a 30% chance of convection impacting the terminal.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Mostly VFR conditions across
the airspace throughout the period. Convection develops this
afternoon and persists through the early evening with ~30% chance of
terminal impacts. Additionally, pyrocumulus across the northern
airspace will develop this afternoon associated with the Rocky
Canyon Fire. Convection will weaken across the central and northern
portion of the airspace this evening with gusty outflow winds
develop along with rain showers. Conditions overnight will be mostly
dry with light diurnally driven winds developing.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monsoonal moisture will continue to gradually
increase statewide through at least Wednesday, resulting in
increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms, particularly
across higher terrain. Today, storms will feature a mix of strong
outflow winds statewide and some wetting rains primarily across
southern Utah. Wind gusts could reach 50-60 mph with collapsing
storms. As moisture continues to increase this week, relative
humidities and wetting rain chances will increase alongside
decreasing temperatures. Daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms
will persist likely through the week, with fairly light winds
expected outside of any outflow.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Extreme Heat Warning until midnight MDT tonight for UTZ101-102-
     104-105.

     Heat Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for UTZ103-106-107-116.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ123-124-
     131.

WY...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ277.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Cunningham
AVIATION...Mahan
FIRE WEATHER...Cunningham

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