Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
342 FXUS65 KSLC 192044 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 244 PM MDT Sat Oct 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system over Arizona will move northeast into western Colorado through Sunday. Moisture on the back side of this low will maintain valley rain and mountain snow showers across areas east of I-15. As this low exits the region, a warming and drying trend will follow through midweek. && .SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Monday)...Afternoon satellite imagery shows an upper low spinning across Arizona, with moisture wrapping around the north side of this low across southern Utah. Meanwhile, ridging to the north of this low is allowing for sunny skies across northern Utah/southwest Wyoming, where temperatures are running roughly 5 degrees below climo. A shortwave feature lifting around the eastern periphery of the Arizona low is forcing the next band of precipitation currently across eastern Arizona and New Mexico. As this wave rotates around the parent low, valley rain and mountain snow will spread into south central and southeastern Utah overnight with snow levels generally above 8000 feet, with any impacted travel impacts likely remaining confined to Highway 12 over Boulder Summit. The Arizona low will lift through the Four Corners region during the day Sunday, with wrap around moisture spreading into central and eventually northern Utah mainly east of I-15. Snow levels will continue to remain above 8000 feet with any accumulation remaining minor. As such have not issued any winter headlines, but did increase PoPs across these areas. Away from this low, temperatures along/west of I-15 including the Wasatch Front and Cedar City will trend roughly 5 degrees warmer as the airmass continues to moderate. .LONG TERM (After 12Z Monday)...In the wake of the weekend low, rising mid level heights will yield a gradual warming trend through at least midweek, with temperatures 5-10F above climo across the area by Wednesday. About 20% of ensemble solutions (largely dominated by EPS members) bring a progressive shortwave trough through the northern Rockies during the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe which could bring a chance of light precipitation into northern Utah during this timeframe, however the vast majority of ensemble solutions maintain a dry and mild pattern through next weekend. && .AVIATION...KSLC...Operational weather concerns are expected to remain minimal at the KSLC terminal through the valid TAF period. Northwest winds are expected to return to the south between 03/04z per norm, and VFR conditions are expected to hold. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are expected to remain in place through tonight across much of the airspace, with only periodic MVFR or high end IFR conditions in rain/snow showers across the south central mountain areas tonight (KBCE). Showers are expected to expand in coverage to the north (over the mountains) on Sunday afternoon with similar conditions persisting, but the majority of the TAF sites are not expected to be impacted, outside of KHCR (Heber City). && .FIRE WEATHER...A low pressure system spinning over central Arizona is maintaining a cool easterly flow across southern Utah this afternoon, while drier air has spread across the north. As this low moves northeast into western Colorado tonight through Sunday, moisture on the back side of the low will bring another round of valley rain and mountain snow showers across southern Utah overnight, then spreading northward impacting areas generally east of I-15 through Sunday afternoon. Snow levels will remain above 8500 feet with minimal additional accumulation expected. As this low exits the region, a warming and drying trend will follow for the first half of the upcoming week. A weak weather system may brush by northern Utah midweek, otherwise dry weather and near to slightly above normal temperatures can be expected across the state through the upcoming week. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ Seaman/Merrill For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity