Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
025 FXUS65 KSLC 311005 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 405 AM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS...A warming and drying trend will continue through at least Monday, bringing pleasant weather for the holiday weekend. Moisture gradually increases through the week, with chances for showers and thunderstorms increasing late in the week and into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Tuesday)...Another quiet overnight period with virtually no clouds in the CWA with the exception of a few high level clouds in far southwest Utah as high pressure remains the dominant weather feature across the region. Key points for the holiday weekend: - Warming temperatures are expected each day through Monday, with highs returning to near to slightly above average across Utah and southwest Wyoming. - No significant/ hazardous weather is expected. High pressure continues to strengthen over Utah and southwest Wyoming through the next 24-48 hours, bringing gradually warming and drying conditions across the forecast area. Trace amounts of lower to mid-level moisture will remain in place, allowing for afternoon cloud development over major terrain features. There is about a 10 percent chance that these clouds build into isolated showers by the mid-afternoon, particularly over the high Uinta mountains and southern Utah mountains, however, no significant impacts are expected if this occurs. High temperatures rise by about 3-5 degrees across the area as compared to the day prior, bringing daytime highs back to near normal. This warming trend will continue through Monday, with highs increasing by another 1-3 degrees, pushing highs back to just above normal for this time of year. .LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Tuesday)...Dry, quiet conditions will transition to more active weather as moisture gradually increases through the long-term period, particularly across southern Utah. On Tuesday, the ridge overhead will shift slightly eastward as a shortwave trough well to our west draws moisture northward mainly into eastern NV. Being on the fringe of this moisture, southwestern Utah could see isolated thunderstorms as early as Tuesday afternoon, with dry microbursts as the main threat. Moisture will continue to gradually increase across the forecast area through the week, with PWATs reaching 110-130% of normal by Thursday across western and central Utah. Model guidance continues to hint at a secondary moisture increase over the weekend, though plenty of uncertainty remains regarding its magnitude and overall timing. As is common with monsoonal surges, the main weather impacts will transition from dry microbursts into more of a flash flood threat later in the week and into the weekend. && .AVIATION...KSLC...Light, southeasterly flow will continue through the morning, becoming light and variable at times. Winds will likely transition to northwesterly around 18-19z. VFR conditions will prevail with clear skies. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Expect largely light, terrain- driven winds through the valid TAF period, with mostly clear skies aside from isolated cumulus fields over higher terrain during the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER...High pressure continues to build over the Great Basin region through Labor Day, bringing warm and dry conditions alongside largely clear skies across Utah. Through Monday, temperatures will gradually warm by 2-4 degrees each day, with the most noteworthy warming expected today. Alongside the warming temperatures, a drying low level environment will bring decreasing afternoon humidity through Monday. Minimum humidity for the week is expected by Monday afternoon as values drop into the 10 to 20 percent range. After Monday, a slow increase in afternoon humidity (1-2 percent increase per day) is expected through midweek. As the axis of the upper level ridge begins to shift to the east through the second half of the week, moisture will increase as south to southeasterly flow becomes more prevalent. As such, will see increasing probabilities of afternoon showers and thunderstorms as we approach the end of the week. Initially, chances for wetting rains will be quite low (only around 20-30% in the high terrain of central and southern Utah), increasing the overall chances for dry lightning though coverage of such will be limited. As we head into the weekend, a more substantial surge of moisture finds its way into Utah and chances for wetting rains and higher afternoon humidity will be present. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Webber LONG TERM...Cunningham AVIATION...Cunningham FIRE WEATHER...Webber For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity