Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
387 FXUS65 KSLC 030831 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 231 AM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system over the region will result in cool and unsettled conditions through Friday. High pressure will move in for the weekend behind the exiting low, resulting in dry conditions with a warming trend. && .SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Saturday)...A broad area of low pressure is centered over far southeastern Utah this morning, with its counter-clockwise spin evident on both satellite and radar imagery. In the vicinity of the low`s center, precipitation continues overnight over southern Utah, with some echoes along the moisture axis over Utah county. Coverage of precipitation will be spotty through the morning, but will improve as instability increases with the heating of the day. The trough is expected to move little today, so the focus of showers will remain over southern Utah, enough to keep the Winter Weather Advisory for the southern mountains going. Under the influence of the trough, temperatures will remain on the cool side with maxes running 10-15F below seasonal normals. During the day Friday, the trough is forecast to track southeast out of the area, allowing moisture and instability to begin to decrease. However, after another overnight and morning low will see more showers develop Friday afternoon, primarily confined to the higher terrain with overall lighter accumulations than the previous couple of days. The exit of the low will also warm temperatures a few degrees, starting to bring maxes closer to normal for this time of year. .LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Saturday)...After a spell of cold weather across the area, the long-term period marks the transition back to sunny skies and spring-like temperatures. The longwave pattern on Saturday shows our broad longwave trough departing eastward, with overall northerly to northeasterly flow over our area. A few isolated showers over higher terrain are possible on Saturday afternoon, though little to no impacts are expected. A ridge will then continue to build across the Great Basin, bringing warm-air advection and subsidence through the weekend. Early next week, a shortwave trough will graze across northern Utah, with still some uncertainty in exactly how far south it reaches (and thus how temperatures are affected across northern UT/southwest WY). Around two-thirds of ensemble members favor a solution further north, which would keep temperatures on the warmer side, with the remainder favoring a track further south and a few degrees of cooling...and even a few light showers. This uncertainty can be seen in the 25th-75th percentile spread for maximum temperature on Tuesday at KSLC: 66-75F. Southern Utah will be unaffected. Temperatures will continue to warm statewide as the ridge rebuilds across the western US. By Wednesday/Thursday, high temperatures near 10-15 degrees above normal are expected, translating to the mid-70s across most valleys and even approaching 90F in St. George. Enjoy the beautiful weather! && .AVIATION...KSLC...Winds will continue to be somewhat light and variable during the morning hours, slightly favoring a northwesterly direction. Northwest winds around 8-12kts will prevail after 17-18z. VFR conditions will also prevail, though isolated rain/snow showers developing after 20z will produce periods of mountain obscuration. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Coverage of rain/snow showers across southern Utah will continue to trend downwards through the morning before reinvigorating after 18-19z statewide. MVFR-IFR CIGs are likely to persist at KCDC and KBCE through the early morning, likely improving by 15-17z. Showers developing may produce MVFR conditions and even IFR across southern UT sites near/within higher terrain. Winds may be locally gusty and erratic near any showers. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ125. WY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Traphagan LONG TERM/AVIATION...Cunningham For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity