Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
226 FXUS65 KSLC 012130 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 330 PM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Drier conditions and gradual warming are expected through Thursday. Winds will increase ahead of an advancing storm system Friday. This system and an associated cold front will move through late Friday through Saturday, bringing much cooler and more unsettled conditions into the region through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Friday)...A dry and mild southwesterly flow is in place across the Great Basin this afternoon, allowing for mostly sunny skies and near normal temperatures across the forecast area. This pattern will remain in place through the short term period, allowing temperatures to trend a few degrees warmer Thursday afternoon. Aside from an increase in high clouds across northwestern Utah Thursday afternoon, skies will remain generally sunny resulting in a beautiful early October day. .LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Friday)...There is high confidence on a storm system to bring gusty winds, rain, and mountain snow to southwest Wyoming and Utah from Friday and Saturday. Models and ensembles are in good agreement on details with the longwave trough, which will track in from the eastern Pacific. Ahead of the system, there will be a substantial increase in southwest flow, particularly for southern Utah, where conditions will remain largely clear and dry through Friday. Winds at 700 mb will range from roughly 30-35 knots, which should mix efficiently in the dry environment in that portion of the state ahead of the trough. This will result in a windy day, with gusts peaking in excess of 40 mph throughout southern Utah. Winds will be lighter further north, but gusts will peak in excess of 30 mph for southwest Wyoming and much of Utah. Moisture and forcing will also enhance Friday, mainly for soutwest Wyoming and northern Utah. Upper diffluence will allow for clouds to increase, with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Model soundings indicate a low end severe threat, specifically a wind threat, with MLCAPE values of 100-300 J/kg, 30-40 knots of LCL- EL wind shear, and 500-1000 J/kg of DCAPE. Convective precipitation will transition to stratiform precipitation after a baroclinc zone tracks in late Friday into early Saturday. The front will bring strong cold air advection, with valley highs in the mid to upper 70s Friday lowering to the mid and upper 50s Saturday. Precipitation will become likely throughout southwest Wyoming and northern Utah. Rainfall totals for the urban corridor of northern Utah will generally range from 0.5-1.00", with most of that early Saturday. Cold air advection will result in a lowering of snow levels to around 8500 feet, where mountain snow accumulations for the Wasatch and Uinta Mountains will range from 1-4". Precipitation will taper off Saturday into Sunday, but a shortwave trough will track in from the north for the end of the weekend. Scattered rain showers are likely for southwest Wyoming and northern Utah. Conditions will trend drier and warmer Monday into the week. && .AVIATION...KSLC...Northwesterly winds will persist until a shift to southeasterly around 03-04z, likely becoming light and variable for a couple hours around the transition. VFR conditions will prevail with mostly clear skies. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Winds this evening and overnight will be largely light and terrain-driven, with prevailing VFR conditions and mostly clear skies. Increasing southerly to southwesterly flow is expected by late morning to early afternoon on Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER...A dry and mild southwesterly flow will reside across the region through Thursday. Temperatures near normal today will trend 3-6 degrees warmer on Thursday, while RH trends 5-10% lower. By Friday this flow will strengthen ahead of an approaching cold front, resulting in gusty south winds particularly across areas south of I-80. A potent storm system will bring much cooler temperatures and elevated RH across the region for the weekend. Thunderstorms will be possible along this front Friday afternoon and evening across northern Utah, followed by widespread precipitation across northern Utah and the higher terrain of central Utah Saturday. Wetting rainfall will be likely with this system, and snow levels Saturday will fall to near 9000 feet across northern Utah. Further south, little if any precipitation is expected south of I-70/US Highway 6. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ Seaman/Wilson/Cunningham For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity