914
FXUS65 KSLC 022339
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
539 PM MDT Wed Sep 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 124 PM MDT Wed Sep 2 2026...


- Gusty southwest winds are expected each afternoon and evening
  across Utah and southwest Wyoming through the end of the work
  week.

- Low daytime RH through Thursday across western Utah will result
  in locally critical fire weather conditions when coupled with
  gusty winds.

- An influx of tropical moisture over the holiday weekend will
  increase the risk of flash flooding into early next week,
  particularly on Sunday across central and southern Utah.

&&

.DISCUSSION, Issued 124 PM MDT Wed Sep 2 2026...
A shortwave ejecting off a parent trough currently
off the PacNW coast will continue to move eastward across the
region today. Modest instability from this shortwave will allow
isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon along
and east of the Wasatch into the Uinta Basin, as well as portions
of southeast Utah. The Storm Prediction Center has most of eastern
Utah in a Marginal (level 1 of 5) Risk for these storms to produce
gusty outflow winds in excess of 58 mph. Conditions across the
remainder of Utah and southwest Wyoming stay dry today, with
widespread gusty southwesterly winds 30-45 mph prevailing as a
result of the aforementioned trough.

The parent trough gradually digs southward along the coast of
California Thursday through Saturday, keeping winds elevated
across the region each afternoon and evening through this period,
especially Thursday and Friday across the western half of Utah.
While winds will be gusty each day, gusts in excess of 45 mph are
not likely to be widespread and persistent enough, thus not
warranting any headlines at this time. A drier airmass and more
limited instability will limit chances for afternoon convection
across the region through this period.

The weather over this upcoming holiday weekend will be overall
dictated by the progression of what is now Tropical Storm Marie,
currently situated south of the Baja Peninsula. Prior guidance
indicated the advection of deep moisture associated with this
storm as early as Saturday, though recent guidance has backed off
on this scenario, and delays deepest moisture transport until
Sunday. With the aforementioned trough expected to begin gradually
shifting eastward Sunday, ample instability will exist across the
region for widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop,
bringing an increased risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding to
the region. Even small changes to the track of the tropical system
could greatly change the magnitude of the moisture influx into our
region late this weekend into early next week, so stay tuned to
the forecast as we get closer.


&&

.AVIATION...

KSLC...Northwesterly winds are slowly pushing closer to the
terminal, however there is a 40% chance that winds remain southerly
around 10-15kts through the evening and overnight hours. If winds do
shift to northwesterly (~01-03z), they are likely to shift back to
southerly after 05z or so. VFR conditions will prevail.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Southwesterly to southerly
winds will persist through the overnight hours at most sites south
of and including roughly KU19-KSVR-KEVW. North of this boundary,
sites have been slowly shifting to westerly/northwesterly, and will
become largely light and terrain-driven overnight. Strong
southwesterly winds will return after 15-17z Thursday across much of
the area. VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER, Issued 124 PM MDT Wed Sep 2 2026...
Dry conditions remain in place across the western
half of Utah today, with daytime RH values dipping into the low
teens. Given strong southwesterly winds with widespread gusts
35-45 mph continuing through this evening, a period of locally
critical fire weather conditions is possible across the area,
though improvements in fuel moisture may limit the overall threat.
Similar conditions exist on Thursday, except for slight
improvement in minimum RH values. Across the eastern half of the
state, moisture lingering across the area today will result in
potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms capable of
producing gusty and erratic outflow winds, mainly along and east
of the Wasatch and portions of southeast Utah.

RH improves statewide on Friday, which will limit fire weather
concerns into the holiday weekend. Winds remain gusty areawide as
we remain on the periphery of a low pressure system sitting along
the west coast. Little in the way of forcing will limit showers
and thunderstorm chances Friday and Saturday, despite increased
moisture. This low is expected to eject into our region by Sunday,
resulting in a more favorable environment for widespread showers
and thunderstorms across the state, with deep moisture supportive
of an increased risk for heavy rainfall and flash flooding in
sensitive terrain into early next week.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT Thursday for WYZ277.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Whitlam
AVIATION...Cunningham
FIRE WEATHER...Whitlam

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity