482
FXUS65 KSLC 151816
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1216 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1213 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026...


- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across
portions of central, southern, northeast UT, and southwest WY each
afternoon within this forecast as monsoonal moisture continues
making its way north. Chances and coverage increase for northern UT
starting Friday.

- The risk for flash flooding exists across the majority of the
forecast area, highlighted by WPC with a Marginal Risk (1/4) of
exceeding flash flood guidance. A Slight Risk (2/4) has been
introduced starting tomorrow for southwest UT, then extending across
the entirety of southern UT on Friday.

- A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for southern UT and portions
of Central UT starting tomorrow afternoon, ending around midnight.
This watch may be extended as more forecast guidance comes in.

&&

.DISCUSSION, Issued 1213 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026...
 Large-scale ridging persists across much of the
forecast area with monsoonal moisture advecting across the area
beneath it. Despite weak flow aloft, thunderstorms are forecast to
develop each day across the forecast area given persistent monsoonal
moisture in place raising PWATs across most lower elevation
locations to around 1-1.5". Thunderstorms are forecast to develop
along higher terrain before propagating along existing instability
axes as they generate a strong cold pool.

Regarding the flooding threat, todays environment yields another day
of conditional flooding given weaker instability across southern and
central UT. CAPE values on the order of 500-750J/kg are forecast to
overspread much of southern UT with warmer temperatures aloft
yielding a "skinny" CAPE profile indicative of efficient rainmaking
processes. However, the depth of the warm cloud layer remains
modest, resulting in more isolated instances of heavier rainfall
required for flash flooding. Regardless, the threat still exists as
highlighted by the WPC outlining the majority of UT within a
Marginal Risk (1/4) of exceeding flash flood guidance this
afternoon.

For tomorrow and Friday`s flash flood threat, dewpoints increase
substantially across southern UT with widespread mid-upper 50s and
potentially low 60s developing in the afternoon. This will serve to
raise CAPE to around 750-1000J/kg and increasing overall storm
coverage in the afternoon. Additionally, forecast soundings indicate
a modest increase in warm-cloud layer depth, potentially enhancing
rain rates and thus increasing the flash flood threat across
southern UT tomorrow afternoon. Lastly, given weak upper level flow,
storm motions across CAMs are quite slow around 1-3kts which would
yield a flash flood threat with any storm that remains near-
stationary over problematic basins or burn scars. As such, the WPC
has outlined portions of southwest UT in a Slight Risk (2/4) of
exceeding flash flood guidance. Dewpoints continue to increase
further into the lower 60s across southwest UT and into the upper
50s across southeast UT, potentially yielding a more widespread
threat Friday afternoon. Some uncertainty exist on Friday regarding
cloud cover which may inhibit convective development further east
which will be monitored with upcoming forecast products.

The monsoonal pattern looks to continue through the remainder of the
forecast period and potentially beyond as ridging remains situated
over the western US amidst continual moisture return across the
Southwest. Finer details will continue to be ironed out, though the
daily flash flood threat appears to continue for quite some time
across much of southern and central UT.


&&

.AVIATION, Issued 1213 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026...


KSLC...Northerly winds will dominate through the afternoon. Though
there exists less than a 20% chance of convection at the terminal
this afternoon, there is good potential for easterly gusty outflow
winds between 01-04z. Typical southeasterlies are expected to resume
between 04-05z. A general mix of VFR cloud cover above 10 kft is
likely, with coverage varying with area convection.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...A similar convective pattern to
yesterday is expected with scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the region, with a corresponding potential for gusty erratic
outflow winds. The highest coverage area is roughly along and east
of Utah`s high terrain and portions of southwest Utah through the
West Desert. That said, outflows may impact other terminals further
away from convection, particularly SGU and PVU and SVR. VFR cloud
cover generally above 10 kft is expected, though brief periods of
reduced CIGS/VIS possible in convection, particularly at CDC this
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Currently, monsoonal moisture continues to surge north
into UT raising chances for showers and thunderstorms across the
state and humidities, both serving to moderate fire weather
conditions. Once again, chances for showers and thunderstorms (60-
80%) remain highest east of the I-15 corridor across southern and
central UT as well as the Uintas. These locations are also where
chances of a wetting rain are favored, though generally highest
across higher terrain. While chances for showers and thunderstorms
generally remain low across the remainder of northern UT and the
West Desert today and tomorrow, chances increase throughout the
remainder of the week as monsoonal moisture continues to increase
further north with time, bringing daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms to the whole state.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for
     UTZ121>131.

WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Worster
AVIATION...Verzella
FIRE WEATHER...Worster

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity