808
FXUS65 KSLC 080448
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1048 PM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 948 PM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026...


- Dry conditions are expected to persist with gradually warming
  temperatures pushing back 5-10 degrees above normal by Thursday.

- There is potential for a system to impact portions of the area
  by the upcoming weekend, but confidence is low at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION, Issued 948 PM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026...
The lingering remnant moisture stream from the
departing weekend system is yielding some modest cloud cover
across the southeastern half of the forecast region, but
conditions remain dry. Across southern Utah the lack of
precipitation and cloud cover resulted in warmer afternoon
temperatures than Sunday, while much of the remainder of the area
has seen cooler temperatures courtesy of a cold frontal passage.
While a calmer and clearer night will result in cooler
temperatures tonight into Tuesday morning, weather is expected to
remain non-impactful.

Throughout much of the upcoming week the combination of a
relatively low amplitude northern stream and a ridge extending
across the Desert Southwest will maintain zonal flow atop the
local forecast region. This will help bring about a gradual day to
day warming trend, with near normal temperatures Tuesday
increasing to about 5F to 10F above normal by around Thursday.
Slight moisture intrusions around the periphery of the ridge will
bring about periods of some cloud cover, but there is little in
the way to suggest appreciable precipitation chances through at
least Friday. Even then, there is not enough consensus in models
to include much more than some isolated shower and thunderstorm
chances across portions of southern Utah during the afternoon.

The upcoming weekend still appears to be the most likely window
for passage of the next potential system, but confidence is still
quite low at this point. Generally, models suggest any such system
would be more of a northern stream trough, which brings questions
on how much moisture would be available. Even looking at the
broader ensemble range for a possible northern Utah cold frontal
passage, there is a spread of 700 mb temperatures between the
25th-75th percentile of about 10C, corresponding to an NBM
forecast 25th-75th percentile Sunday high temperature range at
KSLC of 66F to 84F. This spread decreases at areas further south
in Utah where chances start to increase in a grazing type system
bringing about a more muted cooldown. Looking at broader
scenarios, around 75% of ensemble members at least carry some sort
of system/front, with only 25% bringing continued dry and mild
conditions. Of those bringing a system, members are fairly split
on the strength of the front and degree/extent of a cooldown, and
if/how much precipitation will come from it.


&&

.AVIATION...

KSLC...VFR conditions are forecast to prevail at the KSLC terminal
through the TAF period. A period of more light and variable winds is
possible between 06-08z, but overall light southeasterly winds
prevail through Tuesday morning. Light winds switch northwesterly
around 15z.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are forecast to
prevail across all regional terminals through the TAF period.
Generally light, diurnally driven winds are expected at all
terminals with clear skies continuing across the airspace.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER, Issued 948 PM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026...
Dry conditions are expected to persist over the
next several days with gradually warming temperatures back to
around 5-10 degrees above normal by Thursday. Some moisture may
return to southern Utah by Friday, yielding a chance of isolated
convection. Models generally favor increasing winds and gusts
Friday and especially Saturday ahead of the next potential system,
though confidence in the specific details of this system are low
at this point. For now, the most likely time range for any
associated frontal passage is late Saturday into Sunday, but given
uncertainty in this potential systems evolution, trends through
the upcoming week will likely better address timing/strength.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Warthen
AVIATION...Whitlam
FIRE WEATHER...Warthen

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