503
FXUS65 KSLC 300931
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
331 AM MDT Wed Jul 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...The influence of high pressure will keep conditions
seasonably hot and very dry over Utah and southwest Wyoming over
the next few days. This will result in high fire danger over
central and southern Utah through at least Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Friday)...High pressure remains
centered over the south central United States this morning as a
broad storm system moves onshore along the California coast. This
system will move into the Great Basin by this afternoon, and as it
moves closer, south to southwest flow over the area will increase.
This will further dry an already very dry airmass, with PWs
dropping into the 0.2 to 0.4 inch range areawide. The increasing
flow will result in some breezy conditions, particularly over
central and southern Utah, where there will be areas of critical
fire conditions through at least Thursday. See the fire weather
section of the AFD for more details.

Weak shortwave energy will continue to eject out of the trough
into the forecast area today, as it has for the past few days.
This will, despite the very dry airmass, produce enough
instability for just a few afternoon showers and storms. Any
storms that develop will have little if any rainfall associated
with them but will be capable of producing gusty microburst winds.
Would overall anticipate less of a chance for such storms today
with the airmass drying further, but it remains an outside threat.
Temperatures will remain near to just a few degrees above seasonal
normals for highs today.

The trough is then on track to move northward over the ridge late
Wednesday into Thursday, allowing winds to veer just a bit and
start to bring a small amount of moisture into southeast Utah as
the remainder of the forecast area remains very dry. This will
also bring a very weak and dry frontal boundary into northern Utah
late Thursday into early Friday, allow temperatures to run a few
degrees less hot than they have been.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Friday)...The long-term period will be
relatively quiet, with more seasonably hot and dry conditions to
come. Utah will be located on the upstream side of a broad ridge,
with southwesterly flow persisting through at least Monday. With a
small amount of moisture in place across eastern Utah to start the
long-term on Friday, precipitation chances will be similar to
Thursday afternoon, featuring just isolated showers/thunderstorms
across higher terrain in southern and eastern Utah. Dry microbursts
will yet again be the main threat, given moisture constricted to the
mid levels. As this moisture continues to decline, Saturday and
Sunday will likely feature little to no showers across the area.

The overall pattern gets a little more interesting by early next
week. Ensemble guidance suggests a shortwave trough moving over the
northwestern US, potentially grazing our area. It`s unclear at this
point exactly what will unfold, but this shortwave could lead to
elevated fire weather conditions owing to enhanced southwesterly
winds, and/or could draw moisture up from the south. A large spread
still exists in ensemble PWAT, though models appear to be trending
wetter beginning as early as Tuesday...at least for southern Utah.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Southeasterly winds will continue to increase
through the morning, becoming gusty to 20-25kts after ~16-
17z...though occasional gusts to 20kts early this morning cannot be
ruled out. Winds are unlikely to shift northwesterly this afternoon,
with only around a 15% chance of occurrence after 23z. VFR
conditions will prevail.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...While winds are mostly light
and terrain-driven across the area, a broad area of outflow across
northwestern Utah is currently producing gusts to around 25kts out
of the north as of around 3AM; this will likely dissipate over the
next couple of hours. Also of note, KLGU may experience some
easterly canyon winds between 11-16z, with occasional gusts to
20kts. Otherwise, more of the same conditions are expected across
the state today, with increasing southwesterly winds this afternoon
across much of the area. Winds will be a little higher compared to
yesterday, reaching up to 30-35kts across southwestern Utah. A few
isolated showers/thunderstorms could develop over the Uinta Mtns and
over Uinta Co., WY, with gusty outflow winds possible with any
storms that do develop.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A hot and very dry airmass will remain over Utah
over the next few days, with winds staying breezy out of the south
to southwest through Thursday due to a presence of a trough over
the Great Basin. This combination will result in areas of critical
fire weather conditions through at least Thursday, focused over
central and southern Utah. Enough instability will exist due to
the presence of the trough to result in a few high based storms
each afternoon and evening, primarily over the higher terrain.
Given the very dry airmass, these storms will be accompanied by
little if any rain, but gusty and erratic winds and isolated dry
lightning are possible with any storms that develop. Moisture
increases slightly over southeast Utah Thursday into the weekend,
so storms will be a bit more likely in that part of the state as
the rest of the area remains very dry.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 10 PM MDT Thursday for
     UTZ489-492-497-498.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT Thursday for UTZ493-495-496.

WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan
LONG TERM/AVIATION...Cunningham

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity