716
FXUS65 KSLC 261008
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
408 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry conditions are expected to continue
through at least the weekend, with the potential for a moisture
surge arriving next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Saturday)...Temperatures will
continue to increase under this hot and dry air mass as Utah and
southwest Wyoming reside under largely zonal mid-level flow. Today`s
high temperatures are expected to be around 4-8 degrees warmer
than yesterday, with an increase of another couple of degrees
expected by Friday afternoon. Across most valleys, forecast highs
are in the low- to mid-90s, even approaching 90F in the Wasatch
Back and 100F in Lower Washington County...a smidge above normal
for this time of year. Still, these temperatures are hot; be sure
to stay hydrated if working or recreating outdoors!

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Saturday)...Long term forecast period
begins with a fairly robust ridge serving as the dominant synoptic
element across most of the Four Corners region. With the ridge in
close proximity, afternoon highs through the weekend will run around
5-10 degrees above climatological normal, pushing closer to and
peaking around 10-15 degrees above normal on Monday. While generally
expected to be placed north of the forecast area, the northern jet
looks to maybe dip just far enough southward at times to bring some
low end moisture across portions of northern Utah and southwest
Wyoming. The subsident nature of the strong ridge should preclude
much in the way of widespread activity, but wouldn`t entirely rule
out a shower or two trying to develop, especially off of some of the
high terrain, or in areas further northwest in Utah where the
ridge`s effects will be slightly weaker. Given how limited moisture
would be overall, if anything does develop, inverted-V type vertical
profile would support gusty outflow winds.

Aside from temperatures likely peaking Monday, models also support a
trough starting to push inland through the Pacific coast. The
placement of the ridge and this trough in turn appear favorable to
allow a bit more of a moisture tap to set up within the southerly
flow. While the nearby ridge should still provide a subsident
effect, the extra moisture and strong diurnal heating once again may
be sufficient to develop some isolated high based convection across
higher terrain. With the higher based nature, this would also once
again support a gusty outflow wind threat for anywhere in reasonable
vicinity to this convection. There is loose model consensus on
continuing this moisture advection into Tuesday, with an uptick in
convective potential noted accordingly.

Confidence in the evolution of the forecast moving further through
the week dips, but there is some semblance of a potential pattern
shift, or at least more of a continuation of the more active
pattern. Deterministic models and ensembles do not really shift this
trough through the forecast region, rather keeping it more or less
extending through the Great Basin. With the ridge also shifting
minimally, some sort of moisture tap within the southerly flow would
be retained, if not enhanced further from an active eastern Pacific.
This monsoonal type circulation would then support a continuation of
daytime convection, with activity likely becoming more widespread if
the pattern indeed develops. As of now the CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 day
precipitation outlooks lean in favor of above normal precipitation
across the entirety of the forecast region, which certainly marks a
change from the prolonged stretch of largely dry weather observed as
of late. Given the potential for impacts related to events
associated with the upcoming 4th of July holiday, it`ll certainly be
something to monitor in regards to how the forecast continues to
trend.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Fairly quiet TAF period anticipated. Some
potential for some cumulus clouds to build over nearby terrain and
drift over the terminal through the afternoon, but otherwise expect
mostly clear skies and VFR conditions. Winds largely expected to be
diurnal in nature with delayed shift to NW ~20-22Z Thursday, and
back to SSE ~04-05Z thereafter. There is around a 10-20% chance the
wind shift fails to occur. Sustained magnitudes generally remain at
or below 10 kts, with some daytime gusts up to 15-20 kts or so
possible.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...TAF period expected to remain
fairly quiet, with dry weather and VFR conditions prevailing at most
area terminals. The exception will be those downstream of any fires
(e.g. BCE) where smoke settles down low overnight reducing VIS/CIGS
accordingly. In those cases, IFR/LIFR conditions possible, with
smoke largely mixing out as daytime heating commences. For winds,
expect TAFs to largely follow a typical diurnal directional pattern
with modest sustained magnitudes and gusts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and very dry conditions will continue through
at least Monday, with both minimum RH and overnight recoveries
continuing to trend lower. The one exception to this is maximum RH
across northern Utah by Sunday, which will start to slowly trend
upwards thanks to weak moisture moving in from the northwest.
Slightly enhanced winds across southeastern Utah on Friday
afternoon will result in elevated to isolated near-critical fire
weather conditions where fuels are critical, with wind gusts to
20-25 mph expected. Otherwise, winds should remain relatively
light through the weekend.

The pattern remains favorable for a push of monsoonal moisture by
early next week, with RH, moreso overnight recoveries, trending
upward statewide. Confidence in specific details such as timing is
still low, but the threat for thunderstorms and dry microbursts
(favoring gusty and erratic outflow winds) is there, particularly
with the initial onset of moisture. Often with these surges, this
transitions into more of a local heavy rain threat after the
initial push, but this is a detail that has yet to be resolved.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Cunningham/Warthen

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