278
FXUS65 KSLC 051911
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
111 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- As temperatures climb through Saturday, the threat for heat-
related illness increases for those who are sensitive to heat,
without adequate cooling or hydration, or have chronic health
conditions.

- More widespread critical fire weather conditions develop across
central and southern UT Saturday, lasting through at least Wednesday
as widespread wind gusts look to develop statewide.

- The threat for isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms capable of
strong to severe wind gusts and isolated lightning exists tomorrow
across northern UT. This will result in a conditional fire weather
risk for northern UT as well.

- Given preceding dry conditions and gusty conditions, blowing dust
is expected across much of UT and southwest WY tomorrow afternoon.


&&

.DISCUSSION... Today, generally benign conditions persist as height
rises gradually build into the region. Modest surface winds with
diurnal shifts are expected with clear and sunny skies for the rest
of today.

Starting tomorrow, confidence regarding the fire weather threat
across central and southern UT continues to increase as a deepening
midlevel trough progresses toward the Great Basin. A strengthening
pressure gradient amidst strong mixing favors strong winds
translating to the surface out of the southwest. Chances for gusts
greater than 30mph range from 50-80% across most central and
southern UT valleys on Saturday and 90%+ across southwest UT.
Additionally, chances greater than 40mph remain around 20-40% across
most of southern and central UT with 60%+ across southwest UT. With
poor overnight recoveries and widespread single digit humidities
Saturday afternoon, critical fire weather conditions will exist
across central and southern UT Saturday.

On both Saturday and Sunday, there is at least some potential for
isolated scattered dry thunderstorms with attendant strong to severe
microbursts. Widespread PVA amidst height falls and inverted-V
soundings across northern UT may favor the development of these
storms across northern UT Saturday afternoon. Lightning is also
possible with these storms in the presence of some instability aloft,
potentially yielding a more localized fire weather threat across
northern UT Saturday afternoon with lightning probabilities maxing
out around 15%. The threat shifts more toward central UT on Sunday
as multiple shortwave perturbations traverse across the state,
serving as ascent for these storms. There is high uncertainty
surrounding an initiation signal at this time for Sunday afternoon,
though hazards would remain similar to the storms on Saturday if
they do form.

On Sunday across southern and central UT, a frontal boundary will
slowly move east with time keeping the gusty wind threat more
confined to southeast UT. Critical fire weather conditions will
remain in place across central and southern UT, though winds are
expected to taper off with a midlevel trough lifting north of the
area displacing synoptic wind support from the region somewhat.
Despite this, confidence continues to exist regarding critical fire
weather conditions due to ample coverage of expected wind gusts
greater than 30mph (greater than 60% chance) and humidities in the
single digits to low teens.

Monday and Tuesday, however, bring a somewhat different fire weather
setup. While humidities may rebound somewhat into the low teens,
there is high confidence in widespread winds greater than 30mph
across central and souther UT (generally 60-90%+). Additionally, the
signal for gusts greater than 40mph is relatively widespread,
ranging from 40-60% and increasing somewhat with eastern extent. In
particular, this signal is most pronounced on Tuesday when the
midlevel pressure gradient tightens with the eastward progression of
a midlevel trough across the Great Basin. Lastly, there is also some
signal for dry thunderstorms once again on Tuesday, though exact
location is extremely uncertain at this time.

Wednesday will bring another round of fire weather conditions to
central and southern UT, though somewhat muted compared to the prior
two days as a frontal boundary will begin progressing through the
region as the midlevel trough begins to lift away from the forecast
area. There is some potential that near-critical fire weather
conditions extend past Wednesday, though high uncertainty surrounds
this.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions persist through the period. Clear
skies through this evening gives way to increasing mid to high level
clouds overnight. Generally light northwest winds shift
southeasterly after 03z, before increasing out of the south after
09z. If winds mix down to the surface (80% chance), gusts may exceed
30 kts at times through the morning. There is a 20% chance that
winds do not mix down to the surface, instead creating potential for
LLWS. Otherwise, gusty southerly winds with gusts to 25 kts are
expected to develop after 18z.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions prevail for all
regional terminals, with generally clear skies across the southern
airspace and increasing mid to high level clouds across the northern
airspace. Generally light diurnal winds are expected through this
evening, gradually increasing out of the south to southwest early in
the morning, with widespread gusts 20-30 kts through the evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High confidence exists with a prolonged period
of critical fire weather conditions developing this Saturday,
lasting through at least Tuesday due to a combination of gusty winds
and very low humidities with poor overnight recoveries. Widespread
gusts from 30-40mph will develop across central and southern UT
starting tomorrow with poor overnight recoveries keeping humidities
in the single digits to low teens. A cold front will sweep the area
by Sunday morning, pushing the threat more toward southeast UT,
though gusty winds in excess of 30mph and low humidities will still
exist across central and southern UT.

On Saturday and Sunday afternoons, an isolated to scattered threat
of dry thunderstorms will exist starting with northern UT on
Saturday. Gusty and erratic strong to severe wind gusts will be
possible with any storm that forms as well as occasional lightning
(15% chance). The dry thunderstorm threat shifts to central UT this
Sunday, though uncertainty regarding storm formation exists and will
be ironed out in future forecasts.

On Monday and Tuesday, coverage of wind gusts increase with a higher
signal for gusts greater than 40mph. Confidence in this occurring is
particularly high, given the signal for gusts greater than 40mph
ranges from 40-60% at this time with very low humidities.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Red Flag Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 10 PM MDT Sunday for
     UTZ484-489-492>498.

     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday evening through Wednesday evening
     for UTZ484-489-492>498.

WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Worster
AVIATION...Whitlam
FIRE WEATHER...Worster

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity