694
FXUS65 KSLC 181157
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
557 AM MDT Tue Aug 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1047 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026...

- Scattered convection tonight across northern Utah/SW Wyoming
  shifting east tomorrow.

- Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will occur
  across central and southern Utah Tuesday with enhanced
  southwesterly winds coupled with low humidity.

- Moisture increases late in the weekend and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION, Issued 1036 PM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026...
A weak shortwave is moving through the northern CWA.
This is manifesting in the form of showers with embedded
convection that is currently moving into the west desert. These
seemingly weak showers are capable of producing strong gusty and
erratic winds as seen on I-80 in the Salt Flats where a wind
sensor gusted to 61 mph briefly. This magnitude of wind gusts are
likely an outlier, but gusts to 40 mph closer to the Wasatch Front
tonight is well within the realm of possibilities. This activity
will keep PoPs between 30-40% chance overnight as this wave moves
to the east. During the day tomorrow a shortwave moving through
Idaho and Montana will help to spark more afternoon convection
across northeastern Utah, primarily near the Wyoming border,
including Uinta County, and over the Uintas. Southwesterly winds
will be elevated tomorrow across a strip of Utah from the
southwestern corner up through the northeastern corner. Gusts
20-25 mph will result in locally critical fire weather conditions.

Temperatures will continue to warm as the ridge strengthens
overhead. Highs will peak on Thursday/Friday with ~50% chance of a
return to triple digits across the Salt Lake Valley on Thursday.
Triple digits will also remain possible (~20% chance) on Friday.

As the ridge positions itself move over the Four Corners moisture
will begin to increase by Friday and into the weekend. A trough
off the PNW will increase the pressure gradient across the area
which will enhance southwesterly flow once again, but higher
relative humidity will limit the critical fire weather conditions.
Scattered diurnal convection each day will increase the flash
flood risk across prone areas this weekend.




&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions continue through the TAF period
with persistent mid to high level cloud coverage. Generally light
southeasterly winds persist this morning before transitioning
northwesterly around 19z, though there is potential for an earlier
switch around 18z.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions prevail for all
regional terminals through the period. Conditions remain mostly dry
across the airspace outside of isolated showers and thunderstorms
developing across the eastern half of Utah this afternoon and
evening. Winds remain generally light and diurnally driven today,
except for portions of southwest Wyoming and southern Utah as
enhanced southwesterly winds with gusts 20-25 kts develop this
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER, Issued 435 AM MDT Tue Aug 18 2026...
Hot and dry conditions continue through the work
week as high pressure gradually strengthens across the region.
Conditions remain critically dry across lower elevations through
this period. A slight uptick in afternoon winds today will result
in elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions
developing mainly across lower elevations of central and southern
Utah. Otherwise, the main concern remains the threat for isolated
afternoon showers and thunderstorms capable of producing dry
lightning and gusty and erratic outflow winds. An influx of
monsoonal moisture is expected Friday onward across the region,
with storms trending wetter through the weekend as a result.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Mahan
AVIATION...Whitlam
FIRE WEATHER...Whitlam

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity