607
FXUS65 KSLC 020936
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
336 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions will remain in place across
Utah and southwest Wyoming today. Moisture gradually increases
Wednesday onward, bringing increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms, especially by the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (through 12Z/6AM Thursday)...A ridge remains centered
across the Intermountain Region today, which will result in
continued above- normal heat and dry conditions areawide. Despite
the dry airmass in place, efficient daytime heating will allow
for some cumulus buildups along the higher terrain, and perhaps
an isolated high- based shower or thunderstorm capable of
producing gusty outflow winds this afternoon.

Monsoonal moisture draws up from the tropics late today into
Wednesday, though greatest moisture transport will initially favor
the western Great Basin. Most of Utah and southwest Wyoming is
expected to remain dry on Wednesday as a result, the exception
being southwest Utah where enough moisture creeps in to push PWAT
anomalies around 150% of average. This will allow for scattered
shower and thunderstorm development across southwest Utah
Wednesday afternoon and evening. Dry lower levels, especially on
the fringes of this moisture transport, will result in mainly a
dry microburst threat. However, can`t rule out a stronger cell
that develops over a sensitive area producing localized flash
flooding.

.LONG TERM (after 12Z/6AM Thursday)...As the axis of an upper level
ridge begins to shift eastward through the latter half of the week
an influx of moisture is expected to spread across Utah and
southwest Wyoming.

Key messages:

 - Increasing moisture from Thursday through Friday/ Saturday
   will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms
   across the area.

 - Storms developing late in the week will likely be slow moving,
   bringing higher likelihoods of producing heavy rainfall and
   flash flooding in slot canyons, slickrock areas, normally dry
   washes, and recent burn scars.

 - Seasonal temperatures will drop back to below normal levels as
   afternoon convection, increased cloud cover, and overall
   cooler overhead temperatures spread over the region late in the
   week/ over the weekend.

By Thursday, surface high pressure will continue to weaken across
Utah and southwest Wyoming as the center of the ridge drifts
eastward. Coincident with the movement of the ridge, overhead
temperature anomalies will also shift eastward which will initiate a
gradual cooling trend through the remainder of the week. Lower level
moisture will continue to be suppressed to southern/ southwest Utah
on Thursday afternoon as a deeper, moist southerly flow will be
lacking, however, layer PWAT values will still be running 150-175%
of normal across southern Utah. That said, any storms developing
during the afternoon hours across southern Utah will have a
relatively slow storm motion (10kts or less), increasing the overall
risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

A more established southerly flow is expected to develop overnight
into Friday, helping to advect greater moisture into Utah and
southwest Wyoming. Storm motions on Friday will remain relatively
slow and we`ll begin to see an expanding threat of heavy rainfall/
flash flooding into central Utah. Moisture is currently expected to
peak during the overnight hours into Saturday morning. This peak
moisture is anticipated to pair with a shortwave trough being
ejected from an upstream longwave trough off the U.S. West Coast. At
the very least, chances for showers and thunderstorms will be
maintained through the overnight hours into Saturday, with Saturday
seeing the best chances for scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms.

Conditions gradually dry out from Sunday forward as dry
southwesterly flow persists across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions under largely clear skies are
expected to prevail over the KSLC terminal through the valid TAF
period. Light diurnally driven flows will dominate the wind patterns
today, with southerly flow transitioning to a northerly flow around
noon.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions expected
through the period across all of Utah and southwest Wyoming. Cumulus
development is expected over the high terrain across Utah during the
afternoon hours, with high level cloud cover spreading from south to
north through the morning and afternoon hours. Winds will maintain
generally light and terrain driven trends through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure remains in place today, resulting in
continued hot and dry conditions across the region. Monsoonal
moisture is expected to gradually increase from the south starting
overnight tonight, resulting in slight improvement of overnight
humidity recoveries across southwestern Utah into Wendesday
morning. This increased moisture across southwest Utah on
Wednesday will also result in increased chances for afternoon
high-based showers and thunderstorms, with potential to produce
gusty and erratic outflow winds. Moisture will continue to deepen
and spread northward Thursday through this weekend, allowing
storms to trend wetter and coverage to become more widespread
through the latter half of the week. Temperatures are also
expected to gradually cool in response to this push of monsoonal
moisture, with highs running a few degrees below normal by the
weekend.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Whitlam/Webber

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