744
FXUS65 KSLC 112204
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
404 PM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A strong cold front crosses the area through the
remainder of the day, bringing isolated strong thunderstorms and
moderate to heavy rainfall. Cooler and drier condition can be
expected for Sunday before temperatures trend warmer through the
early part of next week. The next storm system will impact the
area during the middle part of the week, with cooler temperatures
prevailing into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Current satellite imagery shows a deep, cold trough
encroaching the CWA as the primary axis marches eastward through
central Nevada (as of 1530MDT). A notable area of convection
stretches along a line from southwest Tooele County northeastward
through northeastern Box Elder County this afternoon, primarily
tied to the cold frontal boundary associated with this trough.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted ahead of this line
across northern Utah, with general airmass thunderstorms also
noted across a portion of southern Utah as anomalous moisture
remains in place. This cold frontal boundary, and associated
showers and thunderstorms, are expected to continue moving south
and east through the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours,
arriving on the Wasatch Front between 4-6PM. Scattered strong
wind gusts in excess of 40 mph are expected as this cold front
progresses, mainly under stronger thunderstorms. Behind the cold
frontal boundary, temperatures are expected to drop by upwards of
15-20 degrees in a matter of a couple of hours. This boundary will
continue its track through the remainder of Utah and southwest
Wyoming through the overnight hours, introducing a colder airmass
area-wide by around 6AM Sunday.

In the wake of this cold front, below average temperatures are
expected across the region on Sunday alongside overall drier
conditions as moisture lacks in the colder airmass. Daytime high
temperatures will range from about 5 to 10 degrees below
climatological averages for this time of year.

Through the remainder of the upcoming week, active weather is set
to continue as a mean trough will remain in place over the U.S.
West Coast. Through at least Tuesday, increasingly breezy
southwesterly winds are expected across Utah and southwest
Wyoming, though probability of meeting wind advisory (45 mph for
3+ hours) is relatively low (20-25%). Within this breezy southwest
flow, moisture is anticipated to increase in the lower levels
across the eastern half of Utah, bringing increasing chances for
showers and an isolated thunderstorm through the day. That said, a
deep atmospheric moisture profile does not appear likely at this
time, indicating that the overall threat for flash flooding will
be low... but not negligible.

Tuesday forward there is generally high confidence that the
aforementioned trough set up on the U.S. West Coast will progress
inland, shifting over Utah and southwest Wyoming. Current model
output indicates the highest likelihood of seeing scattered to
widespread precipitation will be across the northern half of the
forecast area. The overall areal extent of the next shot of
moisture will be dependent on how deep the trough becomes. Current
ensemble guidance shows only about a 30-40% chance that the trough
deepens enough to bring a shot of precipitation south of about
Nephi, with similar probabilities extending as far as Brian Head
for the mountainous terrain. Nonetheless, a cold airmass will
accompany the trough and bring another cooldown throughout the
forecast area. Cooler temperatures are expected to prevail through
the remainder of the week in the wake of this trough, with drier
conditions prevailing for much of Utah and southwest Wyoming.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Gusty southerly winds precede a cold front
passage this afternoon, in addition to some isolated showers that
have a 30% chance to impact the terminal. Winds will transition
northwesterly behind the frontal boundary, with gusts 30-35 kts. A
band of heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms is also expected to
accompany the front, resulting in MVFR to brief IFR conditions due
to reductions in CIGS/VIS through around 02z. Expect winds and
precipitation to gradually wane after 02z through the remainder of
the TAF period.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Scattered thunderstorms will
continue to develop this afternoon and push east this evening.
Expect a line of rain and thunderstorms to develop along a cold
front around 23-01Z this afternoon extending from northern terminals
down to southern terminals. This line of rain and storms will
push east of all terminals by 05-06Z, lingering the longest at
KCDC and KSGU. As these rain showers and storms impact terminals
this afternoon and evening MVFR CIGS and down to IFR VIS is
possible at times. Strong to severe storms remain possible as
well. Conditions should slowly improve behind the cold front
overnight.

Ahead of the cold front wind will be breezy from the southwest,
especially at KCDC and KSGU. Behind the front wind will become
northwesterly this evening, but will quickly become light overnight
after 06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...The current cold storm system moving through Utah will
bring high chances for wetting rains across the northern half of
the area through the remainder of the evening and overnight hours
while the southern half of the area will see more isolated chances
for wetting rain. In addition, a strong cold front will traverse
the state through the next 6-10 hours, bringing a wind shift from
southwest to northwest. In the wake of the storm system, much
cooler temperatures will be seen area-wide alongside drier
afternoon conditions.

By Monday, another storm system will begin to develop along the
U.S. West Coast which will help to bring an increase in
southwesterly winds through at least Tuesday. Moisture streaming
up from the south will also kick off another round of showers and
isolated thunderstorms across the eastern half of Utah on Monday
and a portion of Tuesday. As the area of low pressure shifts
inland, we`ll see another shot of widespread precipitation,
primarily across the northern half of Utah, from Wednesday into
Thursday. Another shot of cold air will also accompany the
precipitation, bringing potential for high elevation snowfall.
Cooler temperatures remain in place through the remainder of the
week and into the weekend, though the airmass will gradually dry
in the wake of another cold front.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for UTZ113-114-117-
     120>131.

WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Webber
AVIATION...Whitlam
FIRE WEATHER...Webber

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