427
FXUS65 KSLC 021024
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
424 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A classic fall storm will bring gusty, southerly winds
to western Utah Friday. A strong cold will cross the state Friday
into early Saturday. Widespread precipitation is expected across
the northern half of Utah near and behind the front through
Saturday. The coldest temperatures of the fall season can be
expected this weekend behind the cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A classic fall storm system is in the forecast as we
begin the month of October. Early morning upper air and satellite
analysis indicates a trough is approaching the Pacific Coast. An
upper level low is current nearing the British Columbia Coast.
Meanwhile, the tropics remain active with Tropical Storm Octave
and another area of disturbed weather to the east with a 90%
chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 7 days.

Today will be warm and dry, with deep southwest flow across the
region. Expect temperatures to average around 5-10 degrees above
normal...with breezy conditions across western Utah.

By Friday morning, the trough will be approaching the western
Great Basin. The associated cold front will be near the
Utah/Nevada border by late Friday morning. Ahead of this strong
cold front, expect gusty southerly winds. Current ensemble
guidance suggests around a 40% chance for wind advisory criteria
(gusts greater or equal to 45 mph for 3 or more hours) across
western Utah, mainly south of I-80 ahead of this front. No wind
headlines are planned on this shift.

The cold front is expected to cross into western Utah by Friday
afternoon, and reach eastern Utah Friday evening into Friday
night. Expect a threat of strong to severe thunderstorms across
portions of eastern Utah and northern Utah east of the Wasatch
Front ahead of the front Friday afternoon. SBCAPE values near
500-1000 J/kg will combine with significant deep layer shear (at
or above 50 kts) to support organized convection. Given deep
mixing and a dry subcloud environment, expect the threat of wind
gusts in excess of 55 mph with stronger convection. The Storm
Prediction Center has outlooked this area with a Marginal Risk for
Friday afternoon and evening.

Widespread precipitation will develop across the northern half of
Utah near and behind the cold front Friday evening into Saturday.
As the upper level low continues to cut-off to the west Saturday
morning, the coldest 700mb temperatures (around -1 to
-4C) will arrive. This will bring snow levels as low as 8500 feet
 across northern Utah, with accumulating snow likely above 9000
 feet. Those with outdoor plans above 8500-9000 feet this weekend
 should be prepared for winter conditions.

700mb flow will shift west to northwest by Saturday afternoon,
enhancing orographic processes for heavier precipitation across
northern Utah. A widespread 0.50-1.00" of precipitation is
expected by Sunday morning across northern Utah (largely from
Nephi north, amounts will quickly decrease south of Nephi, with
little precipitation expected south of I-70). Locally higher
amounts up to 1.50" or so are likely in the higher terrain
favored in westerly or northwesterly flow.

I don`t want to get anyone`s hopes up too much. Snow totals above
about 9000 feet will range from 1-5 inches, with a 20% chance of
up to 8 inches in the most favorable areas in northwest flow.
Day shift will coordinate with transportation partners...but
expect any road-related issues to be relegated to still open high
elevation seasonal roads. No plans for any winter headlines on
this shift.

Precipitation will largely come to an end Saturday evening as Utah
settles in to westerly to southwesterly flow once again. After a
chilly day Saturday, with temperatures around 15 to 20 degrees
below normal...some valleys with ongoing late season agriculture
will see temperatures near to below 32 degrees by Sunday morning.
This includes the Sanpete and Sevier Valleys as well as outlying
areas of southwestern Utah like Enterprise and Beryl Junction. It
is too early to issue Freeze Watches, but depending on model
trends, future shifts will need to consider potentially adding
headlines for these areas.

For those with frost sensitive agriculture, areas of southern Utah
County near Santaquin and Spanish Fork may see frost Sunday
morning as well as the Rush Valley and areas near Castle Dale.
Areas mentioned above that are at threat of freezing will also be
higher threat for frost.

The majority of ensemble members suggest trough stretched to the
West will gradually cut-off with an upper level low near the Bay
Area early next week. Utah will largely remain dry during this
period. Eventually this cut-off low will eject across the Great
Basin by mid to late week, but the solution space is varied in the
timing and outcome for the region. Something to keep an eye on.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will persist for the KSLC
terminal through the period. Dry conditions and clear skies will
continue with southerly winds briefly transitioning to light
northerly winds late in the afternoon.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist
for the entire airspace through the period. Dry conditions and
clear skies will continue with southerly winds increasing during
the day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A classic fall storm system is expected to impact
the Beehive state over the next several days. For today, expect a
warm, dry southwest flow...with temperatures rising to near 10
degrees above normal. As a strong cold front approaches western
Utah Friday, expect strong and gusty southerly winds to develop.
Gusts in excess of 40 mph are likely across western Utah,
particularly south of I-80. The cold front will cross from west to
east across the state Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.

Near and behind this cold front, widespread precipitation is
expected across the northern half of Utah. Valley rain and
accumulating mountain snow above about 9000 feet is expected north
of about I-70. South of I-70, precipitation chances rapidly
decline. Much colder temperatures can be expected behind the front
Saturday into Sunday, near 15 to 20 degrees below normal across
northern and central Utah.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Kruse/Mahan

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