442
FXUS65 KSLC 030951
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
351 AM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A hot and very dry airmass will remain over the area
into at least midweek. Modest midlevel moisture looks to
gradually spread into southern and eastern Utah for the second
half of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY)...High pressure continues to
build over the desert southwest this morning, with the resulting
ridge axis settling over Utah. This pattern will lead to weaker
winds than had been in place for much of the past week.
Temperatures will continue to be warm, but near normal for this
time of year.

A pocket of moisture with PWAT of around 0.6 inches remains in
place across northwest Utah. This could allow a few high-based
showers to develop near the northwest corner of Utah late this
afternoon into this evening, with the main threat being gusty
outflow winds. Elsewhere, the airmass will remain quite dry, with
PWATs in the 0.2-0.4 inch range, while single digit afternoon
relative humidities will be common across central and southern
Utah.

The ridge axis will shift east of the area tomorrow, allowing
southwest flow to return. The airmass will remain warm and dry.
However, with increasing winds, the potential for critical fire
weather conditions will return.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Tuesday)...A broad ridge over the
southwestern US is expected to strengthen and become centered over
New Mexico on Tuesday. Utah and southwest Wyoming will remain
wedged between this feature and a longwave trough over the Pacific
Northwest through Friday, keeping the pattern generally stagnant
through this period. Weak mid-level moisture transport along the
western periphery of the ridge will support daily afternoon shower
and thunderstorm chances Wednesday through Friday, mainly across
south-central and southeastern Utah. However, given the strength
of the ridge and very dry lower-levels already in place, any
storms that develop will be dry in nature, with main threats for
gusty and erratic outflow winds.

Ensemble clusters support a shortwave trough dropping into the
northern Intermountain region Saturday, which may provide enough
instability for more widespread afternoon convection on Saturday.
With little moisture in place, however, the main threat remains the
potential for dry microbursts.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions expected to prevail at the KSLC
terminal through the period. Dry conditions under mostly clear skies
persist, with light southeasterly winds transitioning to the
northwest between 17-18z. Light southeasterly winds develop once
again after 03z. A period of gusty southerly winds is expected to
develop early Monday morning, with gusts 20-25 kts as early as 09z
and persisting through around 18z.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions prevail for all
regional terminals. Dry conditions persist across the entire
airspace, with mostly clear skies except for passing mid-to-high
level cloud cover across far northern Utah this afternoon and
evening. Otherwise, winds remain generally light, following typical
diurnal trends today. Strengthening southwest flow across the region
Monday will lead to widespread south to southwest wind gusts between
20-30 kts Monday afternoon and evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure over the area today will maintain warm
and dry conditions while winds trend weaker. The decrease in winds
will result in a brief respite from critical fire weather
conditions. However, this will not last as breezy southwest flow
returns tomorrow and continues through much of the week. This will
mark a return to critical fire weather conditions for portions of
southern and central Utah tomorrow through at least midweek.
Midlevel moisture is expected to increase into southern and
eastern Utah midweek. This will bring the potential for high-based
showers and thunderstorms accompanied by gusty outflow winds,
while substantial rainfall looks unlikely. Relative humidities
should recover slightly with the moisture. While afternoon
humidities may increase to around 15% or higher in the mountains
during the second half of the week, valleys will likely continue
to see low humidities which should allow critical fire weather
conditions to continue through late week.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Red Flag Warning from noon Monday to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for UTZ483-
     484-488-489-492>498.

WY...None.
&&

$$

Cheng/Whitlam

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