925
FXUS65 KSLC 011255
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
654 AM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1103 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026...


- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will redevelop over the area
  on Tuesday. Localized flash flooding will be possible, with the
  greatest threat across southern and eastern Utah and near recent
  burn scars.

- Some modest drying will occur for the middle of the week. With
  breezy southwest winds expected during the mid to late week
  timeframe, elevated fire weather conditions will become a
  possibility.

- There is an increasing probability that deep moisture
  associated with a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Pacific will
  spread northward into Utah ahead of a Pacific disturbance for
  Labor Day weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION, Issued 1103 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026...
A shortwave trough continues to eject across
northern Utah this evening, bringing continued showers and
thunderstorms to the area. Isolated to scattered nocturnal
convection is expected to linger overnight. Runoff from earlier
heavy rain will continue to cause rivers and streams to run high
through much of the night, but the threat of additional flooding
has decreased significantly.

On Tuesday afternoon, another, weaker, shortwave trough will
eject across Utah. This will bring another round of showers and
thunderstorms to the area. With weaker dynamics and decreasing
PWATs, convection will not be as widespread compared to today. And
while the threat of flash flooding will exist, it will also be
less compared to today. There is currently a Marginal Risk of
excessive rainfall for southern, eastern, and portions of central
Utah for Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday should feature a bit of a lull in the
weather as the airmass continues to trend drier. However, with
enhanced southwest winds owing to a mean trough over the PacNW,
depending on how quickly the airmass and fuels dry out, focus may
shift to fire weather concerns for midweek to late week
timeframe as fire weather conditions become increasingly elevated.

For the holiday weekend, models indicate some moisture being drawn
into the area from a tropical system over the eastern Pacific.
However, there remains some uncertainty as to how much of this
moisture will reach the forecast area.



&&

.AVIATION...

KSLC...Breezy south winds are expected over the KSLC terminal
throughout the day, with VFR conditions prevailing. Anticipate an
uptick in wind gusts after about 15-16Z, with gusts up to 20kts.
Wind gusts will increase to around 25 kts by the mid-afternoon hours,
and will remain elevated overnight. While shower and thunderstorm
development is expected >10 miles away from the airfield, erratic
outflow winds may still move over the terminal after about 20Z.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Expect VFR conditions areawide
today with showers and thunderstorms developing over the high
terrain and adjacent valley areas during the afternoon hours. Shower
and thunderstorm activity will primarily exist east of the I-15
corridor. Breezy south to southwest winds are expected across the
western half of Utah, with peak gusts of upwards of 25-30 kts along
and west of the I-15 corridor. Showers and thunderstorms may also
bring gusty and erratic outflow winds in excess of 25kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER, Issued 427 AM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026...
Today marks the beginning of a significant drying
trend across Utah that will persist through Thursday, allowing
humidity to fall back into the teens across much of the western
half of the state. While moisture will be exiting the region
today, widely scattered shower and thunderstorm activity is still
expected areawide. Isolated heavy rainfall is expected with
afternoon storms, with the highest probability (40-60%) of wetting
rains expected over the Uinta Mountains, Manti Skyline, Wasatch
Plateau, and Brian Head area. In addition to today`s thunderstorm
activity, southwest winds will increase substantially across the
western half of Utah, with sustained winds around 20-25 mph and
gusts up to 35 mph.

A much drier airmass will work into the region from the west from
Tuesday evening through the first half of Friday, with the breezy
southwest winds expanding into eastern Utah. By Wednesday
afternoon, the dry airmass will favor afternoon minimum humidity
values in the low- to mid-teens across western Utah alongside
continued breezy southwest winds. With the pairing of breezy winds
and low relative humidity, this area will see the resurgence of
elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions,
especially in west- central and southwest Utah. These dry and
breezy conditions are expected to continue into Thursday, marking
another day of elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions
for the western half of the state. Moisture is expected to
increase Friday forward as another surge of tropical moisture
moves into the region. Though moisture will be increasing, western
Utah may still continue to see elevated fire weather conditions
as humidity will remain in the teens across much of this area alongside
continued breezy southwest winds. Thunderstorm activity is expected
to increase areawide by Saturday and will continue into next week.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Cheng
AVIATION...Webber
FIRE WEATHER...Webber

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity