706
FXUS65 KSLC 231119
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
419 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A weak disturbance will bring light valley rain and
mountain snow to northern Utah this afternoon into early Monday
morning. Warming temperatures are expected in the wake of this
system Monday. A largely dry cold front will cross the area Tuesday,
bringing a brief cool down Tuesday into Wednesday. Temperatures will
once again trend upward later in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY)...The ridge over the western
CONUS this morning will trend flatter throughout the day as weak
shortwave disturbances ripple through north of Utah. Moisture
accompanying these disturbances will bring increasing clouds with a
potential for precipitation across northern Utah this afternoon
through tonight. Although H7 warm advection will transition to a
neutral or weak cold advection, the airmass will remain relatively
mild. As such, snow levels and snow densities will be on the higher
side. Most lower valleys are expected to remain all rain with the
exception of areas near the Idaho border where pockets of colder air
remain in place, allowing for the possibility of some snow or
rain/snow mix initially with little or no accumulation. Even in the
mountains, snow accumulations are expected to remain light,
generally in the 1-4 inch range, with locally higher amounts
possible in the Bear River Range, this despite appreciable QPF. The
HREF 25th-75th percentile QPF ranges from 0.1-0.4 inches in the
central and southern Wasatch and Uintas, and 0.2-0.7 inches in the
northern Wasatch and Bear River Range, with locally up to 1 inch.
Otherwise, temperatures are expected to continue trending upward
today with afternoon maxes rising above climatological normals
except along the Idaho border.

A brief break in the weather is expected tomorrow. Some guidance do
have a weak disturbance rippling across northern through central
tomorrow night which could bring precipitation back into the area.
This is ahead of a stronger trough amplifying into northern Utah on
Tuesday. Modest moisture looks to accompany both of these features,
and while the potential is there for precipitation across northern
and central Utah, amounts at this time remain on the lighter side.

Temperatures on Monday are expected to be quite warm, with afternoon
maxes 10-15 degrees above climatological normals, as H7 warm
advection returns. The NBM deterministic is still forecasting a high
of 59F for SLC with a 75th percentile of 63F. This may seem a bit
high given that some cloud cover may remain in place and there is no
supportive surface gradient to enhance mixing, but the 25th
percentile is 58F, so see no strong reason to go lower. Temperatures
across northern Utah will cool for Tuesday, however, as the
aforementioned trough pushes a cold front into the area.


.LONG TERM (After 00Z/5PM MST Wednesday)...A quiet pattern will
set up during the long term period as high pressure builds into the
area. The next trough is still advertised to move in late next
weekend with 86% of members bringing impacts to our area, although
timing and magnitude are still uncertain.

The period will start with a trough exiting to the east and cool
northerly flow in place. This will help to keep near normal
temperatures across much of the area with temperatures running just
a few degrees above normal across southern Utah. A ridge will start
to build in from the west and keep conditions dry and stable with
warming temperatures. Temperatures will plateau ~5-10 degrees above
normal for the remainder of the week into the weekend. A cutoff low
will undercut the trough as it moves into the desert southwest on
Saturday and Sunday. Most of the showery activity associated with
this cutoff low will stay well into Arizona, but a few could sneak
into far southern Utah. A return to more widespread precipitation
still looks to be around early March as a longwave trough moves into
the western CONUS. Most ensemble members have this trough, but the
timing and magnitude varies pretty widely amongst them.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will persist through the period
for the KSLC terminal. Some mid level clouds will increase during
the day ahead of a grazing trough to the north. Conditions at the
terminal will stay mostly dry during the afternoon as showers will
be closer to the Idaho border. Light southerly winds will likely
persist throughout the entire period with brief periods of light
northerly flow possible (~40% chance) during the afternoon.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist
for all terminals, except KLGU that has dense fog and IFR conditions
through sunrise, throughout the period. Mid level clouds will
increase during the day across the north with showers for areas near
the Idaho border during the afternoon. This will create intermittent
mountain obscuration, but precip rates will be light. Winds will be
light and variable areawide.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Cheng/Mahan

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