439
FXUS65 KSLC 111130
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
529 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1036 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026...


- A marginal risk of excessive rainfall will continue across much
  of Utah through at least Friday. Expect an increased threat of
  flash flooding, primarily across slot canyons, normally dry
  washes, slick rock areas, and recent burn scars.

- Temperatures will decrease 10-15 degrees by the end of the week
  with slightly drier air pushing into the area by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION, Issued 1036 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026...
High pressure remains centered near the Four Corners
region this evening. While westerly flow aloft is in place across
the northern half of Utah, southerly flow across northern AZ and
southern NV continue to facilitate the flow of moisture into the
area. Latest analysis shows generally between 0.8-1.1 inches of
PWAT across the forecast area. Isolated to widely scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue into the late
evening hours before diminishing overnight.

For Tuesday, as moisture remains in place, expect scattered
convection to develop again in the afternoon. Initial rounds of
convection look to be tied to the higher terrain, then models
suggest that remnants of the MCV currently over southern AZ could
potentially rotate around the periphery of the high and lift north
through portions of western Utah during the late afternoon
through evening hours, then across northern Utah overnight.
Showers and thunderstorms will be accompanied by the typical
threats of flash flooding and gusty outflow winds.

The ridge axis is progged to shift east for the middle to latter
part of the week. This will bring more of a southwesterly flow to
the area which will start spreading some drier air into the area,
with PWATs gradually decreasing, especially Thursday into the
weekend. However, a shortwave trough which is progged to eject
across northwest Utah on Thursday will provide sufficient lift
that will interact with lingering low-level moisture to result in
more widespread convection, with some added shear to result in
potentially stronger storms.

Models then hint at the drying trend continuing into next week as
the ridge axis shifts over Utah. This is supported by various EC
and CMC ensemble members, although the GFS keeps the ridge axis
farther east with higher PWATs remaining in place over Utah.



&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...The SLC terminal will see VFR conditions
throughout the day. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop over the area starting mid afternoon, lasting into the
evening. There is a 30 percent chance that these storms will bring
periods of gusty and erratic winds to the terminal. Southerly winds
are expected to shift to the northwest between 18Z and 20Z.


REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are expected to
prevail over the airspace today with generally light and terrain
driven winds outside of showers. With monsoon moisture in place,
another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop
today, with the best coverage from the mid afternoon into the
evening. Any storms that develop will be capable of producing gusty
and erratic winds and lightning with a chance of mountain
obscurations and temporary MVFR conditions from heavy rainfall.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER, Issued 417 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026...
High pressure will remain parked over the Four
Corners through Wednesday. This will keep monsoon moisture in
place, bringing scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms
each day, primarily during the late afternoon and early evening.
Temperatures will stay on the hot side over northern Utah with
highs falling below seasonal normals over southern Utah. The ridge
will shift east beginning late Wednesday as a weak trough brings
much cooler temperatures and more widespread showers and
thunderstorms Thursday into Friday. High pressure will start to
rebuild over the weekend as the trough exits, bringing a slow
drying and warming trend into early next week.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Cheng
AVIATION...Traphagan
FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity