Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
532 FXUS65 KSLC 121012 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 412 AM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026 .KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1039 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026... - Temperatures will be above average over the next several days, with highs 5-10F above seasonal normals through the weekend. Temperatures will warm further next week, bringing widespread valley HeatRisk valleys in the moderate range by the middle of the upcoming week. - Conditions will stay dry across the area on Friday. Locally gusty winds over eastern Utah may combine with low relative humidity values to bring localized critical fire weather conditions. - Increasing moisture over southern Utah will bring a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms, primarily over the higher terrain, with the potential for isolated dry lightning Saturday and Sunday. Winds will also increase Sunday into Monday, further increasing fire danger. && .DISCUSSION, Issued 1039 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026... Utah and southwest Wyoming are under a roughly zonal flow between an exiting trough and the ridge off the Pacific coast. In the wake of that trough, temperatures were a bit on the cool side for this time of year for northern Utah, averaging 5F below seasonal normals, with mild conditions continuing over southern Utah. Skies are clear with generally light winds. A trough is on track to drop down into Idaho and Montana from Canada, moving over the front side of the Pacific ridge. For Friday, the main impact of this system will be to bring up winds slightly over eastern Utah, making them gusty enough for the potential of isolated critical fire weather conditions. Otherwise, the zonal flow will advect in a warmer airmass, with highs running up to 5F above seasonal normals over northern Utah and up to 10F above seasonal normals over southern Utah. For Saturday, the Canadian trough looks to move far enough south to introduce more of a southerly component to the flow aloft, which is expected to draw moisture northward into southern Utah. In most guidance, this moisture stays primarily in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere, bringing the potential for afternoon showers over the higher terrain of southern Utah producing little to no rainfall. Thus, would not be surprised to see isolated dry lightning. There is relatively high confidence that the trough will then graze southwest Wyoming and northeastern Utah during the day Sunday, bringing a weak and mostly dry cold front through northern and central Utah. Ahead of the front, moisture is expected to remain in place over southern Utah, producing another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, with potentially a bit more coverage than Saturday. The wildcard for Sunday is how much moisture reaches the lower levels, with some of the higher PW outlier solutions showing a profile that would bring at least some threat of flash flooding. In most of the guidance, however, fire weather looks to be the main concern with southerly winds ramping up over southern Utah ahead of the front. If the airmass remains sufficiently dry, these winds could be enough to bring areas of critical fire weather conditions. Behind that backdoor trough, confidence is high that the Pacific ridge will build over the Great Basin, bringing dry conditions and a warming trend in temperatures. With some guidance indicating temperatures as much as 15F above seasonal normals by the middle of the upcoming week, forecast HeatRisk values go into the orange (moderate) range, resulting in potential heat related impacts for sensitive groups. && .AVIATION, Issued 1039 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026... KSLC, Issued 1039 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026... VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period under clear skies and light, diurnally driven winds. Light west to northwesterly flow will slowly shift to a southerly drainage flow around 05-06Z. Light south flow is expected through around 16Z before reverting to a northerly upvalley flow. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions prevail areawide under mostly clear skies. Light westerly flow is expected across a majority of terminals on Thursday, with the exception of southwest Wyoming where gusts of up to 25kts are expected during the afternoon hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Very dry conditions continue again today with pockets of near- critical fire weather conditions developing across mainly eastern Utah fire zones, including the Central Utah Mountains, San Rafael Swell, Tavaputs Plateau and the Western Uinta Basin. Winds gusts will approach 25 mph, with slightly stronger gusts north where fuels remain approaching critical, while RH will remain in the upper single digits to around 10 percent. On Saturday and Sunday, moisture will move northward out of Arizona into southern Utah, primarily as mid and high level moisture. However, uncertainty remains on how far north the higher quality low-level moisture will make it into Utah this weekend. Ultimately, there will be a stalled moisture gradient across southern Utah this weekend. Along and north of this boundary will feature primarily isolated dry thunderstorm potential, meanwhile south of this boundary where the better quality moisture resides could pose an isolated flash flood risk. While winds will generally weaken this weekend, gusty and erratic outflow winds would accompany any dry thunderstorms that develop. The limited moisture that makes it into southern Utah this weekend will make a quick departure by Monday, leaving a more benign day to start the week. However, by Tuesday into Wednesday there is increased confidence in a storm system moving through the Northern Rockies which will increase the west-northwesterly flow across the northern half of Utah. High temperatures will push to around 10 degrees above average, with continued afternoon RH values to around 10 percent across northern Utah. This combination will again elevate the fire weather concerns especially across northwest Utah and eastern Utah where west-northwesterly winds favor some enhanced downsloping and drying. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Traphagan AVIATION...Webber FIRE WEATHER...Church For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity