Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
081 FXUS65 KSLC 072109 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 309 PM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure will bring a warming trend across the region through the first half of next week. Lingering moisture will continue to fuel afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly across southern Utah. Increasing southwesterly flow later next week may bring a period of critical fire weather conditions, mainly across southwest Utah. && .SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Monday)...An upstream rex block along the Pacific Coast is inducing a generally dry and mild northwesterly flow aloft downstream across the eastern Great Basin into the central Rockies. Although PW values have trended down over the last 24 hours, enough lingering moisture is fueling isolated convection across southern Utah this afternoon. Very weak shear and meager instability (generally less than 100 J/kg MLCAPE) has thus far kept convection in check. This isolated activity will continue into the early evening hours before quickly diminishing with the loss of daytime heating. Little change in the overall large scale pattern Sunday as the upstream rex block nudges inland a bit, but largely remains in place. Lingering moisture will again support isolated convection across southern Utah during the afternoon and early evening. Otherwise as the airmass continues to modify max temperatures will trend 1-3F warmer across the forecast area. .LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Monday), Issued 329 AM MDT...An upper- level ridge passing across the Great Basin will result in overall subsidence and warming temperatures through at least early Monday, with Sunday`s high temperatures expected to reach the upper-80s/low-90s across most valleys and near 100F in St. George. While conditions will be mostly dry, a passing weak closed low across southern Utah will bring low chances for showers/thunderstorms across the southern mountains on Monday afternoon, which may be capable of gusty outflow winds given a dry sub-cloud layer. Moisture will start to increase across the area on Tuesday with an approaching shortwave trough, though chances for showers and thunderstorms remain low and likely confined to higher terrain. These chances will increase across northern Utah/southwest Wyoming on Wednesday as this shortwave trough grazes northern Utah. Although confidence has increased with the track and depth of this shortwave, there still remains plenty of spread with moisture availability across the north, still somewhere between 0.6-0.8" of PWAT. This will ultimately determine the coverage of storms as well as any chances for localized heavy rainfall. Modestly active weather may return again next Friday with another shortwave trough, though these details still remain fuzzy at this time. && .AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will prevail across the KSLC terminal through the period. Dry and clear conditions will continue with light northerly winds transitioning to light southerly winds this evening. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail across the airspace through the entire period. Dry and clear conditions across the northern half of the terminal will continue with light diurnally driven winds. Isolated diurnal convection across the south will dissipate this evening with only a small chance of some gusty outflow winds impacting any of the terminals. && .FIRE WEATHER...High pressure along the Pacific Northwest Coast is maintaining a generally dry and mild northwesterly flow across the region this afternoon. Although the airmass has trended drier, lingering moisture continues to fuel isolated showers and thunderstorms across southern Utah this afternoon. These storms will persist through early this evening before diminishing. The upstream high will slowly build inland through early next week resulting in a warming and drying trend which will continue through midweek. Enough moisture will remain across southern Utah to support isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening through Tuesday. By the latter half of next week, a hot and dry southwesterly flow will spread across the region. This will result in gusty afternoon winds, very low humidity, and hot temperatures. This combination may result in critical fire weather conditions anywhere fuels have sufficiently cured as early as Thursday, but more likely Friday into next weekend. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Seaman LONG TERM...Cunningham AVIATION...Mahan FIRE WEATHER...Seaman For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity