Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
885 FXUS65 KSLC 031101 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 401 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Our ongoing cold storm is expected to wrap up through the remainder of the day. The pattern remains active through the remainder of the week as an atmospheric river brings valley rain/snow and considerable northern mountain snow Friday into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Key Points: - Light snow continues across portions of central and southern Utah this morning, tapering off by late this afternoon. - A warmer, wetter storm brings chances for valley rain/snow and heavy northern mountain storm Friday and into the weekend. Central and southern Utah remain mostly dry through this period. Current radar imagery depicts a band of snow tracking through the Tooele Valley and portions of the West Desert early this morning, but these showers will taper off as they move southward through mid- morning. Another more disorganized band of snow showers is ongoing across southwest and central Utah early this morning, and will continue to track southeastward through the morning and early afternoon as the associated upper-level wave begins to pivot out of the region. Conditions are expected to dry out areawide, save for the potential for some residual light snow showers across the central mountains, by late this afternoon. With clearing skies late today, in addition to light winds and recent snowfall, fog- prone areas like the Cache Valley and portions of Uinta County, Wyoming may see development of freezing fog (pogonip, if you will) late tonight into Thursday morning. After a mainly dry day Thursday, our attention turns to a strong upper-level jet riding along the northern periphery of an East Pacific ridge late Thursday/early Friday. This jet will transport robust Pacific moisture to northern Utah through early Sunday, and as such will produce widespread heavy precipitation through this period. Heaviest periods of precipitation will be favored Friday afternoon into early Saturday as the jet max moves overhead, with a secondary, albeit weaker max late Saturday into early Sunday morning. As this storm will originate from the Pacific, warm air advection will support precipitation beginning as all snow across northern Utah before snow levels gradually lift off valley floors through the day on Friday. Could see some snow accumulations across the Wasatch Front at the onset of this event depending on how quickly snow levels increase. The warmer scenario (around a 75% chance) bringing no accumulations to valley floors and 1 to 2 inches on the benches). The cooler scenario (25% chance) could bring a trace to 1 inch of snow to valley floors and 2 to 5 inches on the benches. For northern mountains, heavy snow is expected, especially for the Upper Cottonwoods and Ben Lomond as northwesterly flow aloft will prevail through the entire event. Just how heavy remains the question, given some uncertainty in the track of the upper-level jet. The placement of this jet will be key, as greatest moisture transport will accompany it. Around 30% of guidance still keeps this jet a bit too far north and east. Recent guidance keeps the 25th-75th percentile spread the spread is around 8 to 18 inches for most mountain locations, except for areas across the Wasatch and Bear River Range favored under northwest flow. Areas favored under northwest flow have a 25th-75th range of around 1 to 3 feet, locally up to 4 feet for the Upper Cottonwoods. Will need to continue monitoring this event given potential mountain road impacts. && .AVIATION...KSLC...IFR CIGS gradually improve through the morning, moving into VFR conditions by late morning (roughly between 16-18z). Clearing skies and dry conditions are expected through the remainder of the day through the end of the TAF period. Generally light northerly winds persist through around 04-06z this evening, transitioning to the southeast thereafter. There is a 20% chance northerly winds persist at the terminal into early Thursday morning. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Low CIGS will continue across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming terminals this morning before gradually clearing from late morning into the afternoon. For southern Utah terminals, expect gradually lowering CIGS this morning as a cold front tracks through the region, with MVFR and brief IFR conditions possible. Snow showers accompanying this front will impact most central and southern Utah terminals between 12-18z. Northerly winds persist for most regional terminals today, with gusty winds across southwest Utah terminals this afternoon. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC/AVIATION...Whitlam For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity