258
FXUS65 KSLC 021007
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
407 AM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A very dry and seasonably warm airmass will remain
over the area over the next several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)...A warm and dry southwesterly
flow aloft remains in place over Utah today with several weak
embedded disturbances ejecting across the area. These disturbances
will bring breezy conditions to the area this afternoon, which
will combine with the dry conditions to bring critical fire
weather conditions mainly to portions of southern and eastern
Utah. Otherwise, temperatures will remain warm, but near
climatological normals.

A few showers can be expected today, mainly across northeast Utah
and southwest Wyoming. Additionally, hi-res models are in good
agreement regarding a small cluster of thunderstorms moving from
northeast Nevada into northwest Utah during the second half of
this afternoon into this evening. Gusty outflow winds will be the
main threat, and all HREF members show at least some area of 50
mph or greater wind gusts in northwest Utah.

High pressure builds into the area tonight with the ridge axis
centered over Utah by midday tomorrow. This will result in weaker
winds and more stable conditions across the area.


.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Monday)...A shortwave trough digs into the
Great Basin on Monday, resulting in strengthening southwesterly
flow aloft. H7 winds increase to around 25-30 knots on Monday,
allowing gusty southwesterly winds to develop across the region.
These gusty winds will couple with very dry conditions to create
heightened fire weather concerns on Monday, most notably across
the southern, central, and eastern portions of Utah. See the fire
weather section below for more details.

The aforementioned trough quickly lifts northeastward out of the
region on Tuesday, allowing a ridge to begin strengthening across
the southwestern US. A weak surge of mid-level moisture is expected
to ride up the western periphery of this ridge, bringing increased
chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms across southern Utah
as early as Tuesday. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms
continue across southern Utah through at least the end of the week
as this ridging pattern remains stagnant. Any storms that develop
during this period are expected to produce little in the way of the
precipitation as lower levels remain very dry, with the main concern
being gusty and erratic outflow winds.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Generally light southeasterly winds continue this
morning before winds pick up out of the northwest between 17-18z.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across far
northwest Utah this afternoon. While storms are unlikely to move
over the KSLC terminal, outflow winds originating from these cells
are expected to produce a period of gusty northwesterly winds to 30
kts at the terminal between 00-03z.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Winds remain generally light
and terrain driven this morning, with typical breezes developing
this afternoon. Some stronger gusts to 20-25 kts are possible this
afternoon for southern Utah terminals. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop across far northwest Utah this afternoon, which
will be capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds at all
northern Utah and southwest Wyoming terminals through the evening
hours. Otherwise, dry conditions prevail across the remainder of the
airspace.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A warm and dry southwesterly flow will remain in
place today. Relative humidities are expected to rise a bit across
northern Utah today while remaining low across southern and
central Utah where afternoon minimum humidities will generally be
in the single digits. This dry airmass, combined with breezy
conditions, will result in critical fire weather conditions mainly
across south-central through east central Utah, with southwest
Utah seeing more isolated/marginal critical fire weather
conditions.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the
Uintas this afternoon and far northern Utah late this afternoon
into this evening. Strong, gusty outflow winds will be the main
threat, especially across far northern Utah.

High pressure will become more centered over Utah tomorrow,
resulting in weaker winds and a brief respite from the breezy
conditions. However, the high center shifts eastward on Monday,
and a return to breezy southwest winds and critical fire weather
conditions can be expected. This will likely continue through at
least Tuesday. By midweek, models try to bring some midlevel
moisture into southern and eastern Utah. Confidence remains low
for any substantial rainfall, with high-based showers and gusty
outflow winds being a more likely scenario.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 10 PM MDT this evening for
     UTZ483-484-488-489-494-498.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for UTZ493-496.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for UTZ483-484-488-489-492>498.

WY...None.
&&

$$

Cheng/Whitlam

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity