356
FXUS65 KSLC 081051
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
351 AM MST Fri Nov 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Quiet weather will continue through early next week
with temperatures warming back to normal by Veteran`s Day,
followed by a potential storm system in the Tuesday/Wednesday
timeframe.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/5AM Sunday)...Early Friday morning
analysis indicates little change in the large-scale pattern
relative to 24 hours ago, with a slow-moving area of low pressure
located over New Mexico. Meanwhile, an upstream ridge axis remains
in place from the PacNW through the Northern Rockies. Over the
next 24 hours, the aforementioned low will move near the CO/NE/KS
border region while the ridge moves into the Great Basin. Finally,
by Sunday morning, model consensus places the ridge axis just east
of Utah (having moved overhead Saturday-Saturday night) with an
upstream, weakening trough moving ashore from the eastern
Pacific. The departing low will have little impact on sensible
weather conditions, bringing only pockets of cloudiness to eastern
areas through Saturday morning. The incoming ridge will foster a
warming trend of up to ~5F per day through Saturday, when
temperatures return to near/slightly above normal. Freeze Warning
remains in effect this morning for Lower Washington County, where
as of 345 AM MST, temperatures had fallen into the low to mid 30s
for most lower elevation areas and were holding steady or slowly
falling. It appears a widespread freeze remains a close call, with
most lower elevation areas (including the St. George metro area)
dropping into the 32F to 34F range for lows just after sunrise
Friday morning.


.LONG TERM (After 12Z/5AM Sunday)...The long term period remains
relatively quiet with a trough moving through the western CONUS on
Tuesday. This trough has shifted towards a more northerly track
compared to yesterdays forecast with 92% of members now favoring
this northerly track. This has dramatically reduced the QPF totals
across northern Utah with little to no precipitation forecast across
central and southern Utah. Ensemble mean H7 temperatures have
remained relatively unchanged post-frontal (~-9C) across northern
Utah. However, with lighter precipitation rates it will be difficult
to get snow levels to fall to valley floors from a high precip rate
driven approach. Current thinking is snow levels might bottom out
around 6kft with only a couple inches of accumulating snow in the
mountains. Surface temperatures behind the front will briefly drop a
few degrees below normal on Tuesday before gradually warming through
the remainder of the week as progressive ridging builds back into
the Great Basin. There is still a strong signal in the guidance for
a deeper trough next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will persist through the period
for the KSLC terminal. Dry conditions and clear skies will continue
with light southerly winds transitioning to light northerly winds
during the day.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist
through the period for most terminals. A couple of valley locations,
such as Cache and Heber, could (<30% chance) see some patchy fog
develop by the early morning. Otherwise, winds will be light and
variable areawide with dry conditions and clear skies.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MST this morning for UTZ123.

WY...None.
&&

$$

ADeSmet/Mahan

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