Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
374 FXUS65 KSLC 312140 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 340 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS...A warming and drying trend will continue through at least Monday, bringing pleasant weather for the holiday weekend. Moisture gradually increases through the week, with chances for showers and thunderstorms increasing late in the week into next weekend. && .SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Tuesday)...Mid level ridging centered across the Intermountain region will maintain a mild and dry airmass through the short term period. Temperatures will trend slightly warmer heading into Labor day, running slightly above climo for early September. With this daytime heating, cumulus development can be expected across the higher terrain, and a stray afternoon shower or thunderstorms can`t be ruled out most likely over the Uintas. .LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Tuesday), Issued 405 AM Sunday...Dry, quiet conditions will transition to more active weather as moisture gradually increases through the long-term period, particularly across southern Utah. On Tuesday, the ridge overhead will shift slightly eastward as a shortwave trough well to our west draws moisture northward mainly into eastern NV. Being on the fringe of this moisture, southwestern Utah could see isolated thunderstorms as early as Tuesday afternoon, with dry microbursts as the main threat. Moisture will continue to gradually increase across the forecast area through the week, with PWATs reaching 110-130% of normal by Thursday across western and central Utah. Model guidance continues to hint at a secondary moisture increase over the weekend, though plenty of uncertainty remains regarding its magnitude and overall timing. As is common with monsoonal surges, the main weather impacts will transition from dry microbursts into more of a flash flood threat later in the week and into the weekend. && .AVIATION...KSLC...The SLC terminal will see VFR conditions through the evening with mostly clear skies. Northwest winds are expected to shift to the southeast between 03Z and 05Z. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...The airspace will see VFR conditions through the evening with some scattered cumulus over the higher terrain through the early evening. Winds will be generally light and diurnally driven. && .FIRE WEATHER...High pressure centered across the region will maintain a drying and slight warming trend through Tuesday. Daytime heating will allow afternoon cumulus will develop across the higher terrain, and a stray afternoon shower or thunderstorm can`t be ruled out over the Uintas Monday, and the southern mountains Tuesday. With this ridge in place, winds will remain light and terrain driven through Tuesday. Moisture will slowly begin spreading back into the area by midweek, and gradually increase through the remainder of the week. This will result in an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms during the latter half of the week, as well as an upward trend in RH. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ Seaman/Cunningham For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity