927
FXUS65 KSLC 180436
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1036 PM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1047 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026...

- Scattered convection tonight across northern Utah/SW Wyoming
  shifting east tomorrow.

- Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will occur
  across central and southern Utah Tuesday with enhanced
  southwesterly winds coupled with low humidity.

- Moisture increases late in the weekend and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A weak shortwave is moving through the northern CWA.
This is manifesting in the form of showers with embedded
convection that is currently moving into the west desert. These
seemingly weak showers are capable of producing strong gusty and
erratic winds as seen on I-80 in the Salt Flats where a wind
sensor gusted to 61 mph briefly. This magnitude of wind gusts are
likely an outlier, but gusts to 40 mph closer to the Wasatch Front
tonight is well within the realm of possibilities. This activity
will keep PoPs between 30-40% chance overnight as this wave moves
to the east. During the day tomorrow a shortwave moving through
Idaho and Montana will help to spark more afternoon convection
across northeastern Utah, primarily near the Wyoming border,
including Uinta County, and over the Uintas. Southwesterly winds
will be elevated tomorrow across a strip of Utah from the
southwestern corner up through the northeastern corner. Gusts
20-25 mph will result in locally critical fire weather conditions.

Temperatures will continue to warm as the ridge strengthens
overhead. Highs will peak on Thursday/Friday with ~50% chance of a
return to triple digits across the Salt Lake Valley on Thursday.
Triple digits will also remain possible (~20% chance) on Friday.

As the ridge positions itself move over the Four Corners moisture
will begin to increase by Friday and into the weekend. A trough
off the PNW will increase the pressure gradient across the area
which will enhance southwesterly flow once again, but higher
relative humidity will limit the critical fire weather conditions.
Scattered diurnal convection each day will increase the flash
flood risk across prone areas this weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...SLC...VFR conditions will continue through the valid TAF
period. South winds are expected to prevail through the night and
into Tuesday morning. However, there is a 30-40% chance of rain
showers and a 15% chance of thunderstorms at the terminal between 06-
13z, which would bring periods of gusty and erratic winds. Northwest
winds should return between 19-21z Tuesday while showers gradually
diminish over northern Utah. There is a 10% chance of a rain shower
Tuesday morning after 13z through Tuesday afternoon.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions generally
prevail for all regional terminals. Winds remain generally diurnally
driven across the airspace. However, isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms will affect mainly northern Utah terminals as they
move east tonight and will be capable of producing periods of gusty
and erratic winds. By Tuesday afternoon, isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will become mostly confined to the eastern
half of Utah.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER, Issued 208 PM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026...
A weak disturbance grazing to the north this evening
will result in scattered showers and a few lightning strikes
across northern Utah overnight. These showers may be capable of
producing gusty outflow winds in excess of 30 mph. Isolated
thunderstorms will develop Tuesday afternoon, primarily across
eastern Utah and higher terrain in central Utah. Similar to
tonight, these showers will also be capable of gusty winds
potentially up to 40-45 mph. Additionally, southwesterly winds
will increase slightly on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons,
resulting in elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions.
Conditions will become hotter and drier through the remainder of
the work week, with critical RH across lower elevations. By
Friday, monsoon moisture will return, producing higher humidities
and chances for wetting rains.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Mahan
AVIATION...Cheng
FIRE WEATHER...Cunningham

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity