Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
783 FXUS65 KSLC 281915 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 114 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES, Issued 107 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026... - Critical fire weather conditions will persist through this evening across south central and southeastern Utah, due to strong southwest winds gusting to 45 mph and very low relative humidity below 15 percent. - An unseasonably cool airmass will keep temperatures 20 to 25 degrees below normal across northern Utah today, and 10 to 15 degrees below normal across southwest Utah. Overnight temperatures may fall to near freezing in some portions of the Wasatch Back tonight. - A warming and drying trend can be expected through the upcoming week, with daytime temperatures returning to near normal by Thursday. Southwesterly flow will result in increasingly mild, dry, and breezy conditions, with areas of critical fire weather conditions Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION, Issued 107 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026... An anomalously deep and cold upper trough for late June encompasses much of the Northern Rockies and Great Basin region today. The associated surface front stretches from roughly Green River back to St George as of midday. Windy and very dry conditions precede the front across southeast Utah, where a Red Flag Warning remains in effect. Behind the front, much cooler air has spread across northern and western Utah where temperatures along the Wasatch Front will remain in the 60s today, and low 70s near Cedar City. Temperatures tonight may approach freezing in some locations along the Wasatch Back A shortwave within the base of the longwave trough is noted over northern Nevada, and will gradually translate east through northern Utah over the next 24 hours. Ascent ahead of this wave coupled with instability resulting from cold air aloft is resulting in fairly widespread showers across northeast Nevada spilling into northwest Utah. This will continue through the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours. As this trough axis lifts through northern Utah overnight into Monday morning, models focus the best chance for precipitation along the northern Wasatch Front/Wasatch Range...likely aided in part by instability over the GSL associated unseasonably cold temperatures aloft. The longwave trough will remain in place across the western CONUS but fill with time through midweek. The combination of rising heights and airmass modification will allow for a warming and drying trend with temperatures returning to normal as early as Wednesday, but more likely Thursday. Guidance has been fairly consistent ejecting this lingering trough axis through the region heading into next weekend, with increasing southwesterly flow Thursday into Friday likely bringing critical fire weather conditions to much of the forecast area. && .AVIATION, Issued 107 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026... KSLC...VFR conditions are forecast to persist at the KSLC terminal through the period. Isolated showers and perhaps a few instances of lightning may occur around the terminal following 21z, lasting through 06z. Uncertainty remains high regarding storm placement, hence the exclusion from the TAF at this time. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are forecast to prevail across all sites through the period with gusty winds. Our northern UT sites may see scattered showers and thunderstorms develop near the terminals starting around 21z, lasting through at least 06z, though high uncertainty remains regarding storm placement at this time. && .FIRE WEATHER...Critical fire weather conditions will persist across south-central and southeast Utah through this evening, owing to strong southwest winds and very low RH. This is in advance of a cold front which is slowly making its way through southern and eastern Utah this afternoon. Once the front passes through this evening, winds will switch to the northwest and quickly diminish by midnight. Behind this front, a much cooler airmass has settled across northern, central and western Utah where temperatures are running 20-25 degrees below normal across northern Utah, and 10-15 degrees below across southwest Utah. With this cooler airmass in place, RH values have trended much higher today, and good recovery is expected again tonight. The parent storm system associated with this front will cross northern Utah this evening, bringing a chance for showers across areas mainly north of I-80 this evening through tonight, and potentially lingering into Monday morning. A general warming and drying trend can be expected through the upcoming week, with temperatures returning to normal during the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe. RH values will trend lower through the week, with widespread daytime RH below 10 percent forecast across low-mid slopes in addition to valleys by Thursday. With this drying airmass, poor overnight RH recovery will become common across the area during the latter half of the week. An increase in southwesterly flow Thursday and Friday will bring a return to critical fire weather conditions across the region, as these winds combine with the very dry airmass which will be in place. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ489-494-498. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Seaman AVIATION...Worster FIRE WEATHER...Seaman For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity