Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
004 FXUS65 KSLC 240932 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 332 AM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025 .SYNOPSIS...While a weak system will brush through Tuesday and Wednesday, expect warming and largely dry conditions. A building ridge of high pressure then yields continued warming into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Thursday)...Early this morning, Utah and southwest Wyoming reside in between a weak longwave trough over the Great Basin/western US and a broad ridge across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. A subtle shortwave trough is noted on water vapor imagery, which is likely the cause of high- based showers currently developing over the West Desert near the UT-NV border. This shortwave will eject across northwestern Utah this morning and afternoon, producing more high-based showers and locally gusty outflow winds, mostly confined to northwestern Utah. However, high-res guidance has already underestimated precipitation coverage this morning, so there could be isolated showers reaching as far as the far northern Wasatch Front over to the Bear River Range this afternoon. As this parent trough nudges closer, we can also expect increasing southwesterly winds this afternoon across eastern/southern Utah, producing near-critical fire weather conditions and increasing temperatures. Wednesday looks to be a little hotter and a little drier, with the aforementioned trough weakening quite a bit as it moves across our area. Chances for isolated showers will move eastward across the Uinta Mountains and Uinta Basin, with chances for gusty outflow winds around 30-40 mph on Wednesday afternoon. .LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Thursday)...High confidence in hot and dry conditions prevailing across the forecast area through the upcoming weekend, as ensemble families are in strong agreement slowly building mid level ridging into the Desert Southwest, while the primary belt of westerlies shifts northward into the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies region. This leaves the forecast area within a predominant zonal flow through the weekend with afternoon max temps running a few degrees above normal. Northern Utah will see little variation in max temps Thursday-Sunday, while temps trend slightly warmer each day across southern Utah under the influence of the Desert Southwest ridge. By early next week ensemble guidance is in strong agreement developing a weak trough along the Pacific Coast, which will amplify the mid level ridge downstream across the Interior West. This will result in a warming trend heading into Monday across the forecast area, with the Wasatch Front approaching 100F and St George exceeding 105F. As this trough evolves along the coast, the pattern looks potentially favorable to pull monsoon moisture northward into at least southern portions of the forecast area as early as Tuesday, as all ensemble clusters dig this trough far enough south to develop a southerly fetch into the region. && .AVIATION...KSLC...Light and variable winds will continue through the morning, becoming stronger out of the northwest after 16-17z. VFR conditions will prevail with FEW-SCT mid-level clouds. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Southwesterly winds will increase after roughly 17-18z, mainly across eastern and southern Utah where gusts to 20-25kts can be expected. Weak high-based showers across portions of the West Desert early this morning will continue to develop across northwestern Utah. Gusty and erratic outflow winds are possible, though this threat will largely be confined to far northwestern Utah. && .FIRE WEATHER...Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday afternoon across portions of southern and eastern Utah as southwesterly flow increases ahead of a weak trough over the Great Basin. Winds will be highest across eastern and southern Utah, gusting to 25-30 mph across most areas, with a low chance of reaching 35 mph. RH will be largely similar to yesterday, with very low RH statewide and increasingly poor overnight recoveries. Looking ahead, expect temperatures to increase through the week, with RH trending even drier through at least Friday. A weak disturbance late this week may result in breezy southwesterly winds on Friday and perhaps Saturday, bringing another afternoon or two of near-critical to critical fire weather, particularly across southern Utah. Also of note is the chance for isolated high-based showers and gusty outflow winds over the Uinta Mountains and Uinta Basin on Wednesday afternoon. Chances for more widespread showers and thunderstorms could return as early as Monday, though this forecast is low confidence. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ Cunningham/Seaman For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity