304
FXUS65 KSLC 082112
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
312 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A dry cold front will remain stalled over central Utah
through Saturday morning. Hot, breezy and unstable conditions
will persist to the south of this front, while a cooler and more
stable airmass settles across northern Utah. This front will
slowly cross southern Utah Saturday as it weakens. A warming
trend will follow early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Sunday)...High pressure is centered
over north Texas this afternoon as a broad Pacific Northwest storm
system grazes northern Utah. Its associated cold front stretches
roughly along a KMLF-KVEL line. Behind the boundary, conditions
are dry and stable with highs averaging 10F below normal for this
time of year, more typical of early September. Ahead of the front,
however, breezy southwest flow continues to combine with the hot
and dry airmass to produce areas of critical fire weather
conditions. See the fire weather section of the AFD for more
details.

The front is expected to remain stalled through Saturday afternoon
before the front drifts south and weakens as the associated upper
trough exits to the east. Temperatures Saturday will be similar to
Friday, with some breezy winds continuing over southwest Utah.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Sunday), Issued 422 AM MDT...Broad, dry
northwest flow will be in place throughout southwest Wyoming and
Utah Sunday. This will be as a longwave trough lifts northeast and
a ridge is positioned off the Pacific coast. The main difference
from before will be that wind speeds will be lighter throughout
Utah. Temperatures will start to warm Sunday, with valley highs in
the upper 80s and low 90s for many locations.

The start of the week will be under strong influence from the
aforementioned ridge to the west. As it slides eastward into the mid
portion of the week, there will be a warming trend. Valleys will
generally get into the low and mid 90s Monday and mid and upper 90s
Tuesday.

There is good model agreement that a longwave trough will dig into
the PacNW later Tuesday into Wednesday. This will push the ridge
further east into a position that will be better for monsoonal
moisture advection from the south. At the same time, there will
likely be some dynamic support from the longwave trough. There is a
lot of uncertainty in how far south the trough will dig into later
in the week, which will be important for not only forcing, but for
how much of an enhancement in southwest flow ahead of it there is.

Wednesday will be near or slightly warmer than Tuesday, with mid and
upper 90s for most valleys as high pressure slides to the south and
southwest flow ahead of the longwave trough enhances. There will be
isolated to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms,
primarily around mountainous terrain. These will be more capable of
gusty, erratic outflow winds than much precipitation.

Depending on the track of the aforementioned systems, there could be
more moisture and forcing for more organized showers and
thunderstorms Thursday into the weekend. There will be more
confidence when the rough position of each is known. Regardless,
there will be a slight cool down, but temperatures will stay warmer
than normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Northerly winds will continue through the
evening, becoming lighter to 5-7kts after 02-03z. Winds are likely
to shift light and southeasterly around roughly 09-12z, and may
become variable at times in the early morning hours. VFR conditions
will prevail.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...A dry cold front will continue
to nudge across eastern Utah, with lighter, northwesterly winds
expected behind the front. Ahead of the front across southern Utah,
gusty westerly winds will continue through the early evening,
decreasing overnight, and returning (with lower magnitudes than
Friday) by Saturday afternoon. VIS reductions are possible near
local wildfires.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A stalled cold front extends from near Milford to
the eastern Uintas this afternoon and will move little through
Saturday. Areas behind this boundary will see a stable and
relative cool airmass, while areas ahead of the boundary see
pockets of critical fire weather conditions due to gusty
southwest winds. The front will weaken and shift slowly southward
Saturday into Sunday as high pressure rebuilds over the area.
Southeast Utah will see another day of critical fire weather
conditions on Saturday, but with the ridge overhead on Sunday,
winds will be much weaker, lowering the fire danger somewhat. The
light winds will continue through the middle of next week with
continued dry conditions and a steady warming trend.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ481>484-488.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT Saturday for UTZ489-493-494-496-
     498.

WY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ277.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan
LONG TERM...Wilson
AVIATION...Cunningham

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity