475
FXUS65 KSLC 192137
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
337 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A typical early fall pattern will continue across the
Beehive State through the next week. An upper level disturbance
will bring the threat of showers and thunderstorms to portion of
southern and eastern Utah Saturday. A weak cold front will cross
northern and central Utah Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Sunday)...A beautiful shoulder season day
is on tap across the CWA this afternoon. Afternoon upper air and
satellite analysis indicates an upper level low is slowly shifting
south off the southern California Coast. Another upper level
trough is pulling away from the region across central Canada.
Meanwhile, persistent upper level ridging remains in place across
the south central portion of the country, currently centered near
the Big Bend of Texas.

The previously mentioned upper level low north of LA will
gradually shift eastward across the Desert Southwest through
Sunday. While generally weak across Arizona early Saturday, the
upper level low will strengthen and shift northeast across the
4-Corners region into Colorado Saturday afternoon. This period of
strengthening will leave a window for showers and
thunderstorms...with some potential for strong thunderstorms
across southern and eastern Utah Saturday afternoon and evening.
Main threat will be strong, gusty microburst winds. This threat
will end by late evening as the upper level low pulls away from
the region.

The track of this low does support at least enhanced easterly flow
through the canyons of Weber, Davis, Box Elder and Cache Counties
Saturday morning. Gusts to 40 mph are most likely at this time,
however, the high-resolution guidance window is just starting to
resolve this time period. This is a phenomena that is
sufficiently small enough on the mesoscale to need high resolution
modeling to properly discern.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Sunday), Issued 358 AM MDT... Beautiful
weather is in store for the long-term period, with near-normal
temperatures and mostly clear skies.

In the wake of a closed low, shortwave ridging will build across the
area on Sunday, producing drier conditions and temperatures hovering
around normal. Monday will largely be the same, though a passing
shortwave trough sliding across northeastern UT/southwestern WY will
result in partly to mostly cloudy skies, with a few isolated showers
over the Uinta Mountains. There are still a handful of ensemble
members that favor a stronger shortwave, which could bring light
showers to more of the area, though this chance is fairly low (15%
chance).

Heading into midweek, a ridge will likely build across the area,
raising temperatures to just above normal. Model guidance hints at
another developing trough possibly late in the week, but there is
still a wide range of potential solutions.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...The SLC terminal will see VFR conditions
through the evening with mostly clear skies. Northwest winds are
expected to shift to the southeast between 03Z and 05Z.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...The airspace will see VFR
conditions through the evening with some scattered clouds this
afternoon over the higher terrain. Winds will be generally light
and terrain driven through the valid TAF period, though southwest
Utah will see some breezy southerly winds into the early evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A more fall-like pattern continues across the region. An
upper level low will slowly eject across the Desert Southwest
through Sunday, bringing the threat of showers and thunderstorms
to mainly southern and eastern Utah Sunday. Gusty and erratic
winds will be possible near any thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and
evening. A weak cold front will cross through northern and
central Utah Monday.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Kruse/Cunningham/Traphagan

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