123
FXUS65 KSLC 292351
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
551 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1151 AM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026...


- Multiple rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms are
  expected to occur this afternoon across UT, primarily northern
  and central UT where strong to severe storms are expected.

- Flash flooding concerns exist across UT today through at least
  Monday. Of the days within this stretch, Monday looks to be the
  most concerning.

- Weather areawide may calm down somewhat by midweek, though some
  uncertainties remain regarding this solution.

&&

.DISCUSSION, Issued 1151 AM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026...
Currently, a deepening upper trough is pushing
inland with its axis centered over WA/OR with a shortwave to its
southeast progressing NE through the Great Basin. Ample mid-level
mass response has developed an enhanced belt of southwesterlies
atop strong mid-level frontogenesis, serving as a focal point for
thunderstorm development across northern UT this morning. A few
severe wind gusts have been observed primarily across the Great
Salt Lake Desert with sub-severe hail closer to the Wasatch Front,
though northeasterly winds and surface temperatures in the 60s
have largely limited the severe threat keeping storms elevated
instead of surface based due to a stable boundary layer. A few
stronger gusts can`t be ruled out with this complex as it moves
further east into the Uinta basin where surface temperatures have
continually warmed this morning in the absence of cloud cover,
though gusts are not expected to be widespread.

Through the remainder of the afternoon, multiple shortwave
perturbations embedded within the flow will traverse northwest UT
serving as a focal point for thunderstorm development. Continual
moistening of the boundary layer with daytime heating increasing
with the erosion of a persistent cloud deck should result in
increasing instability generally south of a line extending from
Wendover to Salt Lake City yielding MLCAPE values from
1000-1500J/kg, perhaps higher if cloud cover clears faster.
Additionally, enhanced southwest flow aloft will result in Eff.
Shear values exceeding 40kts across a large portion of northern UT
to central UT, supporting the development of supercells capable of
wind gusts potentially in excess of 70mph and hail to around 1".

Flooding remains a concern today as well, particularly if more
supercellular convection develops given the moist environment
characterized by PWATs from 1-1.3" of water. However, this threat
may be limited by fast ENE storm motions today, though would still
pose a problem if storms are to track over problematic terrain and
burn scars.

Tomorrow, the upper trough progresses through ID serving as a
focal point for widespread thunderstorm development tomorrow
afternoon across UT. Moisture, instability, and shear leave much
to be desired, though portions of southern UT may see some flash
flood threat develop with slower moving storms associated with a
trailing wave. Come Monday, the threat for flash flooding across
southern UT increases substantially as a stronger moisture surge
races north. High PWATs, potentially as high as 1.3-1.5" of water
are expected to advect north amidst an environment favorable for
slow moving (and potentially backbuilding) storms. Some
uncertainties exist regarding this, though Monday is shaping up to
be quite wet across southern UT in particular.




&&

.AVIATION...

KSLC...Southerly winds are expected to prevail through the evening
and into the morning, with passing showers and thunderstorms causing
periodic gusty and erratic winds. The strongest storms will be
capable of producing heavy rainfall that may result in periods of
MVFR to IFR conditions.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...For northern terminals,
widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist through
the evening and into early morning before dissipating. The strongest
storms will be capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds
and heavy rainfall that may result in periods of MVFR to IFR
conditions. Southern terminals will remain gusty into early evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER, Issued 1226 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026...
Active weather continues today with strong to severe
thunderstorms developing this afternoon across northern and
central Utah with a flash flooding threat also developing this
afternoon across central and southern Utah. Regarding the severe
threat further north, wind gusts in excess of 58-70mph and hail to
around 1" are expected this afternoon with any of the stronger
storms that form. Across southern Utah, monsoonal moisture
continues to surge north bringing an attendant flash flooding
threat to the area through at least Monday. While storm
development across southern Utah may be somewhat muted Sunday
afternoon, Monday appears somewhat concerning regarding rainfall
high rainfall rates and amounts. Regardless, a wetting rain is
expected across the entirety of Utah through early next week.

Following this active patter, a drying and cooling trend will take
place as most showers and thunderstorms appear to remain confined
to the higher terrain at this time. Temperatures will run roughly
5F below seasonal normals with RH approaching normals around mid-
week.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Flood Watch through Monday evening for UTZ116>121-123>131.

WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Worster
AVIATION...Verzella
FIRE WEATHER...Worster

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity