Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
188 FXUS65 KSLC 271106 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 406 AM MST Thu Nov 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions remain in place across the region through Friday afternoon with the pattern breaking down into a cooler and wetter regime thereafter. Uncertainty still exists in the precise details of how the weather unfolds from late Saturday forward, but mountain and valley snowfall still remain in the realm of possibilities. && .DISCUSSION... Key Messages: - Dry and mild conditions remain in place through Friday afternoon, bringing above normal temperatures areawide before settling into a cooler and wetter pattern. - A series of troughs will progress through the region late Friday through Sunday, then again by midweek. Widespread mountain snow will be possible (40% chance) alongside a 15-20% chance for measurable snow on the Wasatch Front by Sunday evening/ Monday morning. - Near to slightly below normal temperatures are expected across the region from Saturday through at least next Thursday as a mean trough is positioned over the eastern Great Basin. Today, a weak upper level ridge crests the forecast area, marking the warmest day of the week for much of Utah and southwest Wyoming. High level moisture will keep skies at least partially cloudy (high-based) through in the late morning through the overnight period. High temperatures top out around 10-15 degrees above climatological normals, allowing for a pleasant turkey day. Through the overnight period into Friday, the aforementioned ridge begins to break down as our weekend wavetrain takes shape in the PacNW/ northern Rockies region. Through the weekend, a series of two troughs are expected to progress through the region. An initial shortwave trough tracking across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming will find its way over this area through the second half of Friday and overnight into Saturday. This largely moisture starved system will bring low end potential (20-35%) for high elevation snowfall in the Bear River Mountains, however, accumulations will fall well short of any headline criteria (10-25% chance of 3-5 inches). The second of the set of troughs will follow quickly in the heels of the initial wave, bringing another shot of moisture and cold air. While this second trough is supported by nearly every ensemble member, there is some remaining uncertainty revolving around how deep and how far east/west the trough tracks. A farther westward track (35% chance) would help to support a deeper and more dynamically robust storm, whereas a more eastward track (30-65% chance) and shallower trough would leave us with a quick shot of moisture (favoring the mountains). As this uncertainty lingers, so does the uncertainty in the amount of precipitation expected over the area. Current NBM 10th to 90th percentile ranges for QPF across Utah`s mountains range from 0 to 0.75 inches across the northern mountains and 0 to 0.3 inches across the southern and central mountains. For valley areas, upwards of 0.1 inches of precipitation can be expected for valleys along and west of the I-15 corridor, whereas the eastern valleys will struggle to amount to this much. On the high end (10% of model output), upwards of 0.4 inches can be anticipated on the Wasatch Front with other valley areas showing upwards of 0.25 inches. As far as snow goes, the scenario that favors snowfall in the northern Utah lower elevation valleys is the less probable westward track. As of writing this discussion, there is currently only a 15-20% chance of seeing measurable snowfall on the Wasatch Front. There is still about a 30% chance that this storm is a complete flop and we end up with no precipitation (eastward track)... so continue to monitor forecasts closely. An active storm track looks to remain in place through at least the middle of the week as yet another trough looks to track through the eastern Great Basin region by around Wednesday. Unfortunately, ensemble guidance is not in great agreement on how this trough unfolds as about 25-35% of guidance supports a trough progressing to our west, 35% showing a splitting feature (no bueno), and about 30% supportive of something in the middle. && .AVIATION...KSLC...Light southeast winds will transition to light northwest winds around 19-20Z. Mostly clear conditions will last through 15Z, with scattered to broken clouds in building in after that. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Light winds will last through the TAF period. Mostly clear conditions will transition to scattered or broken clouds from west to east from 12-18Z. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Webber AVIATION...Wilson For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity