877
FXUS65 KSLC 052135
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
335 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A moist and unsettled pattern will continue into
Friday, bringing showers and thunderstorms to primarily the
southern half of the area along with the threat of localized flash
flooding. Drier and warmer conditions return for the weekend into
early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Saturday)...Seeing a broad trough
over the Great Basin this afternoon, keeping an unsettled pattern
over Utah and southwest Wyoming. Anomalously high PW values are
highest over central and southern Utah, in the 0.7 to 0.8 inch
range. Combined with more favorable jet support, this area remains
for focus for convection this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms
that have developed so far are primarily along the periphery of
where showers lingered over southern Utah this morning. However,
CAMs are showing southwest Utah filling in again by the early
evening with the help of some weak shortwave energy moving
through. Given the moisture content over southern Utah, the
biggest threat with storms will be flash flooding if they happen
to move over flood prone areas. Temperatures are staying near
normal for this time of year over northern portions of the
forecast area, with increased cloud cover resulting in maxes up to
5F below normal for this time of year.

The trough will tend to split apart during the day tomorrow, with
one piece closing off along the California coast and the other
moving east of the area. This will result in little change in
moisture but an overall reduction of instability. Overall,
anticipating a bit less in the way of coverage of showers
tomorrow, with more of a focus over central Utah. Given the
continued moisture rich atmosphere, flash flooding will remain the
primary threat.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Saturday), Issued 341 AM MDT...
Relatively quiet weather is in store for the long-term period,
with high pressure expected to build heading into the weekend.
Taking a look at the upper-level pattern, Utah will be situated in
overall northwesterly flow downstream of a ridge just off of the
west coast. This pattern is likely to persist through the weekend,
as the ridge is located atop a closed low, indicative of a weak
Rex block. Given mid-level height rises, expect a warming and
drying trend through the weekend, with high temperatures
approaching the low-90s along the Wasatch Front and around 100F in
St. George. Be sure to stay hydrated if working or recreating
outdoors this weekend! It`s also worth mentioning there is a low
(10%) chance of showers developing across higher terrain both
Saturday and Sunday afternoons, though they should remain isolated
at best.

The weak omega block will start to break down early next week as
a stronger Pacific system nudges both features eastward. As the
aforementioned closed low moves inland and towards Utah, it will
weaken, yet also bring increased moisture to the area by mid-week,
primarily across northern Utah. There is still some question as
to how much moisture will increase, but ensemble guidance suggests
moisture returning to somewhere between the 50th and 90th
percentiles. Additionally, despite broad upper-level diffluence,
mid- level heights are still modeled to be above-normal,
potentially limiting any rainfall/flash flooding potential.
Despite these uncertainties, we can expect a return to slightly
more active weather next week.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will persist for the KSLC terminal
through the period. Dry conditions with a few high clouds will
continue with northerly winds transitioning to light southerly flow
this evening.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will continue
for the northern half of the airspace as dry conditions and some mid
to high level clouds continue along with diurnally driven winds.
Scattered convection across the southern portion of the area will
continue through ~06Z with brief periods of MVFR/IFR conditions
along with gusty outflow winds. Overnight, conditions will stabilize
with VFR conditions throughout the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Unsettled conditions will continue through the end
of the work week with anomalously high moisture over the area due
to a series of troughs impacting the area. The troughs will exits
the area beginning Friday afternoon, with high pressure building
over the weekend. This will result in rapidly drying conditions
with temperatures rising to around 10F above seasonal normals
through Sunday. Winds will stay generally light and terrain driven
through the period. Some more instability may return by the middle
of next week.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan
LONG TERM...Cunningham
AVIATION...Mahan

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity