448
FXUS65 KSLC 022026
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
126 PM MST Mon Mar 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will pass through Utah and southwest Wyoming
  through the remainder of today and early Tuesday, bringing a
  period of light to moderate valley rain and high elevation
  snowfall. Embedded thunderstorms may bring periods of moderate
  to heavy rainfall for valleys in northern Utah.

- A colder system impacts the region early Thursday through Friday,
  bringing better chances for more substantial mountain snow and
  potential for light valley snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A broad region of precipitation is currently
observed from northeast Utah through western Beaver county as our
approaching cold frontal boundary helps to focus an area of lift.
This boundary, and the associated precipitation, will continue to
shift southeast through the next 6 to 12 hours and allow for
valley rain and high elevation (7,000-7,500ft+) snowfall to
spread across Utah and southwest Wyoming. Ahead of the boundary,
radiosonde observations reveal a substantial amount of elevated
instability (300+ J/kg CAPE) for this time of year. We have
already seen a number of isolated thunderstorms that likely
contain small hail, and this will continue to be a localized
threat through the remainder of the day (mainly for areas
which have not yet seen the boundary pass). The exception for
wetter conditions through the next 12 hours will be the eastern
Utah valleys, which are anticipated to remain dry as the boundary
progresses due to a significant amount of moisture absorbed by the
central mountain spine.

There are a non-neglible amount of hi-res models that are
suggesting a cold enough environment to produce snow on the bench
areas of the northern Wasatch Front and eastern Cache valley
during the overnight hours, however, with the anomalously warm
antecedent conditions the thought is that it will be quite
difficult to see any significant accumulations of snow (especially
on paved surfaces). That said, there is still around a 25% chance
that we see around 1 inch of snow accumulation by Tuesday morning
in eastern Salt Lake, Davis, Weber, and Cache counties. A
majority, if not all, of the impacts tied to snowfall from this
current storm are to be expected for elevations above 7,000ft.
Initially, snow levels will be upwards of 9,000ft by the time of
precipitation onset and will gradually lower to around 6,500ft by
early Tuesday morning. Fortunately, a majority of the moisture and
broad lift will already be exiting the region by the time
temperatures are cold enough to support lower elevation snowfall,
so anticipate minimal impacts outside of mountain travel routes.

A brief lull in active weather is expected through the remainder
of Tuesday and Wednesday as we prep for our next colder storm
system. Northerly gap winds will spread across Washington county
on Tuesday morning, with peak gusts approaching the 35 mph mark. While
temperatures will be cooler (near seasonal normals) on Tuesday, a
stout warming trend is expected into Wednesday as temperatures
rebound back to above normal levels alongside dry surface
conditions. An uptick in southerly winds can also be expected
during the late afternoon on Wednesday as lower level flow
enhances ahead of the next frontal boundary.

Models remain in fair agreement of another trough pushing into
the eastern Great Basin from late Wednesday/ early Thursday
through late Friday, with the base of the feature trending farther
and farther south. As such, big picture trends will be an overall
cooler end to the week and wetter conditions areawide. Given the
much colder airmass associated with this system, thinking that
mountainous terrain will see much greater chances for impacts as
snow levels will start around 7,000ft overnight Wednesday into
Thursday and drop to as low as 4,500ft by Friday morning.

Current model guidance shows the highest amount of uncertainty
across the northern half of Utah, with the highest QPF spread
existing in the mountains. Total water amounts (25th to 75th
percentile) from early Thursday through early Saturday range from
around 0.1 inches to 0.5 inches for northern valleys and around
0.25 inches to upwards of 1.5 inches in the high terrain! For the
southern area, similar elevations may see 0.01-0.25 inches in the
valleys and 0.25-0.9 inches in the mountains. Depending on snow
ratios and actualized SWE amounts, mountainous terrain may see
2-12 inches in the northern Utah mountains and 3-7 inches in the
southern mountains. The highest amount of uncertainty, however,
appears to be focused around the Tushar Mountains where higher end
(75th percentile) output is pushing 20+ inches. For valleys,
snowfall is not off the table as 75th percentile output is as high
as 1 to 3 inches (particularly focused on the east benches).

It should go without saying that there is still a solid amount of
uncertainty to work through with this storm, but the big picture
trends remain the same. Beyond the scope of this next storm, the
pattern looks to stabilize, however, we`ll remain between two main
weather drivers... a longwave trough to the east and a ridge to
the west. Small changes in the amplitude and phase of these two
features will have influence on our forecast... so maintaining low
end PoPs through the remainder of the forecast period.


&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Showery conditions continue through this
afternoon ahead of a cold frontal passage, with lightning possible
within any cells impacting the terminal through around 00z.
Instability wanes thereafter, with more steady rainfall continuing
at the terminal through around 06z. Expect MVFR to IFR conditions
through this period due to CIG/VIS reductions from showers. Drier
conditions prevail after 06z with northwesterly winds persisting
into Tuesday.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...A band of heavy precipitation
accompanying a cold front passage will continue to impact N UT/SW WY
terminals through this evening, with MVFR to IFR CIGS/VIS persisting
through this period. Precipitation tapers off by early Tuesday
morning for most locations other than some lingering showers along
and east of the Wasatch. Westerly winds across N UT/SW WY switch
northwesterly behind the frontal passage early this afternoon.
Across southwest Utah, expect a period of enhanced wind gusts in
excess of 30 kts at times before switching northwesterly this
evening.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Webber
AVIATION...Whitlam

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity