Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
683 FXUS65 KSLC 131000 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 400 AM MDT Sat Sep 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS...A slow moving storm system will exit the area this evening. High pressure will briefly return for Sunday before a grazing storm system brings cooler temperatures and some precipitation to northern Utah Monday into early Tuesday. Drier conditions will return thereafter. && .SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Monday)...A slow moving Pacific storm system is continuing to track across Utah and southwest Wyoming this morning. Currently just seeing some scattered clouds across the forecast area. However, will see some convection start to redevelop, primarily over eastern Utah, as early as the late morning, with scattered convection persisting into the afternoon hours. Temperatures will run near normal for this time of year. As the system exits, high pressure will move over the area for late Saturday into Sunday. This will result in dry conditions for the latter half of the weekend as temperatures stay right around climo. .LONG TERM (After 12Z Monday)...A quintessential fall pattern will set up during the long term period. A weakening shortwave trough will graze northern Utah Monday and Tuesday bringing a slight chance for precipitation along with a cooler airmass. Moisture will be limited with this weakly forced wave. Only ~30% of ensemble members have precipitation, which is confined to the far northern and eastern portion of the CWA. Temperatures will be running just a few degrees below normal on Monday and Tuesday across the north thanks to this frontal passage. This airmass doesn`t push into central and southern Utah which will keep temperatures near to slightly above normal. A ridge starts to build into the Great Basin region by midweek. This will result in a warming trend with temperatures near to slightly above normal. Southerly flow will make a return towards the end of the week which will advect moisture up into the area. Diurnal convection will be possible Friday and Saturday, but an approaching trough into the PNW could bring some enhanced lift to the area as the potential for some ejecting shortwaves out ahead of the trough could bring some enhanced lift allowing for better coverage in convection. Roughly 50% of ensemble members have enough moisture to result in measurable QPF, while the remaining 50% keep conditions on the drier side. && .AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will persist for the KSLC terminal through the period. Mostly dry conditions with some mid level clouds and light diurnally driven winds will continue. There is ~20% chance of an isolated afternoon thunderstorm. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist for the entire airspace through the period. Mostly dry conditions and some mid level clouds with light diurnally driven winds will continue. Some isolated diurnal convection will primarily be focused across the far eastern airspace likely not impacting any terminals. && .FIRE WEATHER...A slow moving storm system will continue to make its way across the area today before exiting tonight. This will bring continued unsettled conditions, particularly for the eastern half of Utah. High pressure will briefly move in behind the system for Sunday, bringing mostly dry conditions with highs near seasonal normals. A grazing storm system will bring a few showers to northern Utah Monday into early Tuesday, along with some slight cooling. Drier conditions are expected to return thereafter. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan LONG TERM/AVIATION...Mahan For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity