161
FXUS65 KSLC 011119
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
419 AM MST Thu Jan 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The threat for freezing rain remains for portions northern
  Utah, with the greatest confidence expected along I-80 from the
  Salt Flats to the Nevada border. Elsewhere, scattered to
  isolated freezing rain is expected.

- High elevation snowfall will bring travel impacts to elevations
  above 7500-8000 feet the remainder of the day and into Friday
  morning.

- An active weather pattern will follow this initial storm as we
  head into early next week, bringing continued threat for high
  elevation snowfall and travel impacts.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 00Z Saturday/5 PM Friday)...Current radar
imagery depicts widespread rain and high elevation snow showers
moving in from the southwest early this morning. These showers,
associated with a warm Pacific storm, will continue to spread
northward throughout the day. Freezing rain still remains a
threat for mainly the West Desert region between the Salt Flats
and the Nevada border, including this stretch of I-80. This
threat will continue through late this morning as precipitation
moves in with a stout inversion in place and air temperatures
below freezing across the area. The limiting factor will be
surface temperatures, and if this freezing rain can accumulate.
Even if light accumulations do occur, freezing rain leads to very
dangerous travel conditions. Thus, if traveling along I-80 south
of SLC this morning, check road conditions before you go and
consider delaying travel until conditions warm this afternoon.
Elsewhere across northern and eastern Utah, some pockets of
freezing rain can`t be ruled out early this morning for an hour or
two at the onset of precipitation, especially for areas close to
the Great Salt Lake north of SLC and the mouths of steep canyons
(Cottonwoods, Ogden, Weber).

The first wave of precipitation progresses northward through this
afternoon, becoming more showery in the wake of this stratiform
shield. While cold antecedent conditions are in place this
morning, warm air advection from southwesterly flow aloft will
result in snow levels increasing to around 9000-9500 feet across
southern Utah and 7500-8500 feet across northern Utah and
southwest Wyoming late this morning. A trailing shortwave trough
is expected to eject across Utah and southwest Wyoming late
tonight into Friday morning, which will reinvigorate shower
activity areawide and result in snow levels dropping to around
7000 feet. This will be the main timeframe of concern for winter
driving conditions, especially across the Cottonwoods, Parleys,
Sardine Summit, and Logan Summit. A Winter Weather Advisory has
been hoisted for most northern mountain locations as a result.
Precipitation is expected to taper off by early Friday afternoon.

.LONG TERM (After 00Z Saturday/5 PM Friday)...A shortwave ridge
will build into the area by Friday evening, bringing a more stable
airmass and resulting in a break in precipitation through
Saturday. However, a low pressure system situated upstream off the
NorCal and Oregon coast during that time means that more weather
will be coming.

A series of weather systems dropping in from the north will interact
with the low, maintaining an active pattern for Utah from Sunday
through Tuesday as various shortwaves eject through Utah. More
specific details of these individual waves are difficult to resolve
at this time. However, with southwest flow remaining largely in
place, snow levels will generally remain high (around 7-8kft),
resulting in valley rain and mountain snow. However, there is a fair
amount of model consensus on a splitting trough crossing the area on
Tuesday, with resulting cooler air potentially lowering snow levels
to near 5.5-6.5kft. Otherwise, as the unsettled weather pattern
should prevent any strong valley inversions, temperatures are
expected to return to well above normal values.

Behind the splitting trough, another brief lull in the weather will
be possible on Wednesday. Thereafter, another series of shortwave
troughs will arrive from the northwest which look to bring a colder
airmass to the area with the potential for valley snow late in the
week.


&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Precipitation is expected to spread from the
southwest into the SLC terminal around 12z, continuing at times
through the valid TAF period. Precipitation is expected to begin
largely in the VFR category, with increasing chances of seeing MVFR
CIGS towards the late morning and early afternoon hours today along
with mountain obscurations. A low but nonzero chance (5-10%) of
periods of freezing rain/drizzle is noted during the morning hours,
especially between 12-16z. Winds are largely expected to remain out
of the south except for a northwesterly shift for a few hours in the
afternoon.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Precipitation is expected to
continue to spread from southwest into northern Utah this morning.
While snow levels are expected to rise above most terminals through
the day, valley areas maintaining strong low-level inversions will
see a low end chance (5-10%) of periods of freezing rain/drizzle.
The exception is the northwestern valleys including KENV, where
chances are higher (60-80%). Areas of MVFR CIGS can be expected
especially towards the late morning into the afternoon hours, with
mountain obscurations. Otherwise, a general southwesterly flow is
expected in most areas.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for UTZ101-
     102.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
     Friday for UTZ110.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 AM MST
     Friday for UTZ111-112.

WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Whitlam
LONG TERM/AVIATION...Cheng

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity