630
FXUS65 KSLC 042135
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
335 PM MDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Persistent trough finally begins to exit, bringing drier
conditions and a warming trend this weekend. A weak grazing system
will brush by northern Utah late Monday, but well above normal
temperatures are expected by the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Sunday)...One last day very reminiscent
of those prior as our broad trough, now more centered over SE AZ,
continues to churn away from the region. For now though,
placement of the trough is once again allowing for the development
of scattered instability driven showers, with the bulk of
activity noted across the eastern half or so of the forecast
region. As has been the case, H7 temps remain cool enough that
given the convective nature of these showers, any modestly
stronger cells are capable of producing a mix of snow/graupel/rain
with dominant precip type dependent on elevation. Guidance shows
good consensus in drier air starting to work in pretty quickly
overnight, so in combination with cessation of daytime heating
this evening, think activity should trend downward accordingly
after in the hours following sunset.

As the trough continues on its trajectory overnight, deeper flow
across northern Utah will shift to a more E/NE direction. In turn,
low elevation pressure gradient will setup in a way to allow an
easterly wind to become favored. While this is one ingredient
necessary for downslope winds, it doesn`t appear all that
impressive in strength. Additionally, not seeing strong indication
of formation of any real ridgetop critical layer, nor evidence of
good cold air advection, two other ingredients needed for higher
confidence in any stronger type of event. As such, still
anticipate mostly some modestly gusty canyon winds at typically
prone northern Utah locations. While a gust or two in the 40-50
mph may be possible at the most locally prone of these locations,
even using the max gust value of all HREF members brings very few
instances of gusts into the 40-45 mph range, so will not issue any
wind related headlines with this forecast package.

Saturday will see the trough further depart the area, with
continued dry advection and increasing H7 temps locally. As a
result, most places will see clear to mostly clear skies and
afternoon temps nudging upwards, though high marks are still
generally forecast to come in around 5F to 10F below
climatological normal for early April.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Sunday)... The signal for a substantial
warm-up continues to appear quite likely with amplified ridging
building across the western US throughout the extended forecast.
Precipitation chances appear quite low throughout the period with a
chance for isolated showers Monday evening through Tuesday morning
across northern Utah.

The persistent southern stream western U.S. trough that has been
meandering for a few days will continue ejecting off to the east as
it attempts to phase in with a northern stream upper trough dipping
south over Ontario on Sunday. Ridging is expected to build in
following the departure of the trough which will serve to clock
surface winds to south-southwesterly, kicking off warm air advection
across the forecast area for the remainder of the forecast period.

Throughout the remainder of the extended forecast, we should remain
relatively dry and continually warming for the foreseeable future as
ridging holds strong over the region. PoPs see a slight increase
Monday evening into Tuesday morning as an upper trough to our north
drifts past us. Ensemble guidance has more or less converged on a
less amplified solution to the upper trough where less forcing will
yield lower PoPs for northern Utah, generally hovering around 15-
30%. However, ensemble guidance has also shown a signal for the
trough to dive a tad further south resulting in a brief "cooldown"
across northern Utah bringing high temperatures down on Tuesday by a
few degrees. Regardless, it will still feel much warmer than our
recent temperatures.

Wednesday and Thursday are expected to warm quite significantly with
temperatures statewide approaching 10-15 degrees above normal. This
would yield generally 70 to 80 degrees for most valleys across the
forecast area with lower Washington county perhaps seeing
temperatures reach the low 90s for the first time this year.
Additionally, there is somewhat higher confidence with the Salt Lake
Valley hitting high temperatures in the low 80s on Thursday with
this forecast cycle. Be sure to get our and enjoy the spectacular
weather!

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Largely dry conditions will prevail through the
evening. There is a low chance for a rain shower through 03Z, but
VFR conditions will prevail. Northwest winds will gust to around 20
knots through 00Z, with light northwest winds prevailing after 00Z.
Clouds will diminish, with clear conditions by around 09Z.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Mountain snow showers and
valley rain and snow showers will taper off from 00-03Z. Snow
showers will be capable of MVFR or IFR conditions. Dry, clearing
conditions are likely after 03Z, with clear conditions throughout by
around 09Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Warthen
LONG TERM...Worster
AVIATION...Wilson

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity