134
FXUS65 KSLC 240941
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
341 AM MDT Sat May 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...As a splitting storm system crosses the area, expect
increasing showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. Unsettled
weather will then continue through much of the coming week,
accompanied by a gradual warming trend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)...A splitting storm system is noted
on satellite imagery and model analyses, with a closed low currently
developing over central CA while the northern branch trough is
moving across ID. Ahead of this, a weak frontal boundary has moved
into northern Utah while midlevel moisture has increased. Weak
returns have been noted on radar near the H7 baroclinic zone, but so
far, no measurable precipitation has been noted underneath these
returns. Expect to see high-based showers increase with daytime
heating, with isolated to locally scattered thunderstorms. The
showers should be focused near and just behind the boundary which is
expected to settle across west-central through northeast Utah and
southwest Wyoming by this afternoon. Most areas will see little or
no measurable precipitation with these showers, except for the
Uintas, where the HREF ensemble mean is showing show 0.1-0.25 inches
of QPF. Otherwise, as is typical with high-based showers, gusty
outflow winds will be a threat with any showers. As for temperatures
today, expect afternoon maxes to be similar to yesterday across the
north, and a bit cooler across the south, with overall near normal
values throughout the forecast area.

The closed low will eject into Utah tomorrow. This will bring an
increase in shower and thunderstorm activity across the forecast
area. However, with moisture continuing to increase, the chance of
measurable precipitation also increases, especially over the higher
terrain. That said, gusty outflow winds will remain a possibility.


.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Monday)...The long term forecast
generally features a consistent pattern of transient shortwave
troughing clipping the area yielding multiple chances for isolated
showers over the coming week across northern UT and southwest WY.
Additionally, warm temperatures seem to be here to stay as
geopotential heights continue to build across the western U.S.

The forecast begins Monday with a shortwave upper trough slowly
sliding off to our east. Forcing overall is expected to remain quite
weak which will result in showers remaining quite isolated to
scattered in nature and generally across higher terrain.
Additionally, moisture is expected to be quite lacking in the lower
levels and mostly confined to the mid-upper levels of the atmosphere
with rain likely struggling to reach the ground, particularly across
lower elevations. With warmer temperatures in the forecast, isolated
thunderstorms are expected with gusty and erratic winds possible
near and within these storms. With rain struggling to reach the
ground, QPF is expected to remain quite lackluster with these
storms. With the aforementioned brushing shortwave pattern expected
to continue through the week, isolated to scattered rain showers and
thunderstorms can be expected each afternoon across the
aforementioned areas across northern UT and southwest WY.

As geopotential heights continue to build across the region, warmer
temperatures appear locked in for the foreseeable future with the
majority of valleys gradually warming into the upper 80s through
Friday. Additionally, lower Washington County may see temperatures
break into the 100s by the end of the week as well. For northern UT
and southwest WY, the aforementioned storms may provide enough cloud
cover in the afternoon hours to prevent most valleys from reaching
higher than the upper 80s through the end of the week, though
temperatures will remain around 10 degrees above normal.

As we enter the weekend, a closed low may develop and meander to our
southwest. There remains considerable uncertainty with placement and
overall strength, but two things remain possible with this setup.
With large-scale ridging building over the western U.S.,
temperatures may continue to rise into Saturday which could serve to
bring KSLC to its first 90 degree day of the year. Additionally,
this low could surge more moisture north perhaps increasing
precipitation chances across southern UT, generally over higher
terrain as the lower levels would still remain quite dry.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Mid to high level cloud cover will persist
through the afternoon before dissipating somewhat on Sunday with VFR
conditions continuing. Westerly winds with occasional shifts to
southwesterly and perhaps southerly may continue this morning before
the diurnal lake breeze kicks in during the early afternoon hours.
Northwesterly winds should hold on through Sunday afternoon
following the transition.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail
across all terminals with mid-high level cloud cover persisting
today. Winds will remain light at all northern UT and southwest WY
terminals with gusts up to 20kts this afternoon for out southern UT
sites. Additionally, there is a small chance for isolated
thunderstorms near KHCR, though probabilities appear too uncertain
and low end to include into the TAF at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Increasing midlevel moisture today will lead to
isolated to scattered mainly high-based showers with generally
isolated thunderstorms. Best chance for showers today will extend
from west-central Utah through northeast Utah. However, most areas
outside of the Uintas are likely to see very little or no measurable
precipitation today. Rather, there is a threat of gusty outflow
winds with any showers. Humidities should trend a bit higher across
northern Utah today, while remaining quite low across the south.
Additionally, southeastern portions of Utah will see enhanced
southwest winds which, when combined with low humidities, will
approach critical fire weather conditions.

Moisture continues to increase for tomorrow as a storm system
rotates into Utah. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
increase in coverage tomorrow afternoon, with increasing chances of
wetting rain, especially over the higher terrain. High pressure then
makes a brief return on Monday, but lingering moisture may continue
to allow a few showers over the higher terrain. Thereafter, an
unsettled weather pattern can be expected through the coming week,
with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms pretty much on
a daily basis. Otherwise, temperatures are expected to trend
gradually warmer through the week with a slight drying trend in
valley humidities.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Cheng/Worster

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