528
FXUS65 KSLC 251704
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1104 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Persistent monsoon moisture will bring a daily threat of showers
  and thunderstorms, primarily focused over the higher terrain,
  through Thursday.

- Coverage of showers and thunderstorms may become more
  widespread, particularly for northern portions of the area,
  Friday through the weekend due to the passage of a grazing
  trough.

- Highs averaging up to 5F above seasonal normals are expected to
  drop to values near or below normal by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Utah and southwest Wyoming remain under the
influence of high pressure this morning, with the ridge axis
centered roughly over Utah. This is bringing mostly clear skies
with generally light flow aloft. Lingering monsoon moisture
remains in place, with satellite derived PWs primarily in the 0.7
to 0.9 inch range, in the 75th to 90th percentile for this time of
year. This should be more than enough moisture for convective
initiation over the higher terrain this afternoon, but the lack of
flow and lack of additional instability will result in a more
limited valley threat than the past few days. Highs today will
average about 5F above seasonal normals.

Little change in the weather pattern is anticipated through
Thursday, with the ridge axis creeping ever so slightly east each
day, eventually returning to the Four Corners by Friday. Thus,
convective threat will remain mostly unchanged with a subtle
warming trend. By Wednesday into Thursday, portions of far
southern Utah will see isolated pockets of HeatRisk values in the
red (major) range, but at this time the elevated risk of heat
related illness does not look widespread enough to warrant heat
related headlines. Additionally, will see enough drying during
this time for RH values in western and southern valley locations
to approach critical levels, though winds will remain generally
light.

Rather than parking near the Four Corners for the weekend,
guidance is increasingly suggesting that the ridge will continue
east, potentially opening up the West to a more active pattern for
the weekend and into early next week. The ridge should initially
limit the influence of a Pacific Northwest storm system over the
weekend, keeping it as primarily a grazing feature for northern
portions of the area. Main impact will be on temperatures as the
associated front moves through Saturday, with maxes up to 5F below
seasonal normals anticipated by early next week. The resultant
increase in instability will also bring the potential for more
widespread convective activity, particularly for northern Utah and
southwest Wyoming. With the ridge then most likely out of the
picture, at least for the time, troughs will have the potential to
bring more significant impacts for the forecast area. However, any
details on the potential timing, track, and strength of any of
these systems remains low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION, Issued 448 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026...


KSLC...VFR conditions will persist for the KSLC terminal through the
period. Variable winds associated with nearby showers will continue
through 12Z before conditions dry and a light southerly flow
returns. Isolated thunderstorms redevelop this afternoon, but there
is <30% chance of impacts to the terminal. Winds will primarily be
light and northerly during the afternoon.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist for
the entire airspace through the period. A few showers across the
northern airspace continue to decrease in coverage. Isolated storms
develop this afternoon with <30% chance of impacting most terminals.
Winds will be light and diurnally driven aside from gusty and
erratic winds near storms that develop.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure will remain over the area through at
least Thursday. Lingering monsoon moisture will allow for the
daily development of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and
evening, with limited drift off of the terrain. Any storms that
develop will be capable of producing gusty and erratic winds.
Relative humidity values for the valleys of western and southern
Utah are expected to move closer to critical values for Wednesday
and Thursday, though winds will remain generally light. The ridge
will track east of the area Friday through early next week, with a
grazing Pacific Northwest system providing increasing southerly
winds Friday into Saturday. However, the southerly flow will be
drawing additional moisture northward during this time. A cold
front on Saturday will bring less warm temperatures and an
increased potential for convection, particularly for northern
Utah. The absence of the persistent ridge will bring a more active
pattern beginning early next week, though confidence is low on the
details at this time.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Traphagan
AVIATION...Mahan
FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity