Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
958 FXUS65 KSLC 041125 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 425 AM MST Tue Nov 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Mild temperatures and dry conditions are expected across the region through midweek. Southwesterly flow will increase on Wednesday ahead of a series of weak systems which will impact northern Utah and southwest Wyoming Thursday into Saturday. Strong high pressure will build in by early next week. && .DISCUSSION...A mild west-southwesterly flow aloft will remain in place over Utah today. A trough moving by well to the north will bring some mid and high clouds to mainly northern Utah through the day, otherwise, expect fairly benign weather. Afternoon max temperatures of 6-12 degrees can be expected across the area today. Southwesterly flow will increase tomorrow ahead of the next approaching trough. Most global deterministics continue to show a southerly surface pressure gradient along with H7 winds 40-45 kt across west-central and southwest Utah. The NBM continues to maintain a 30-45% chance of reaching wind advisory criteria (45 mph gusts) across a small area of western Millard and Beaver Counties. The HREF does not mix as much of the stronger winds down into the valleys, but widespread 35-40 mph gusts are likely. As such, holding off on any wind highlights at this time, but something to continue to monitor. However, enough mixing will occur to likely bring a bit of a warming trend to at least portions of western and northern Utah. The NBM has a 60% percent chance for SLC to reach 70F on Wednesday and a 24% chance of reaching 72F. The trough will trend weaker before crossing northern Utah late Wednesday night into Thursday. While temperatures will trend cooler (back down to near to slightly above climo), precipitation will not be very significant and limited to northern Utah and southwest Wyoming. However, the NBM has trended a bit higher, though the mean values remain under 0.33 inches except in the Bear River Range where amounts are a bit higher. Snow levels will remain well off the valley floors at around 7-7.5 kft. A break in the weather is expected late Thursday into Friday afternoon before another shortwave trough drops in from the northwest and grazes southwest Wyoming. This may bring another round of precipitation to the north, but currently, amounts are trending a bit less than for the Wednesday night through Thursday storm. Slightly cooler but near seasonal temperatures are expected for Saturday before temperatures slowly rebound through the early part of next week as strong high pressure develops over the area. There is strong model consensus on a strong ridge; question is when it will break down, but that is a question for another day, as it looks like it will be beyond the 7-day forecast period. && .AVIATION...KSLC...Southeasterly winds will continue through the morning, gusting to around 20kts at times after ~15z. Winds will then shift to northwesterly around 20-21z. VFR conditions will prevail with FEW-SCT high clouds. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Most areas will see largely light and terrain-driven winds through the morning, with southwesterly gusts to around 20kts picking up during the afternoon after ~18z. VFR conditions will prevail with FEW-SCT high clouds. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ Cheng/Cunningham For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity