112
FXUS65 KSLC 302126
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
326 PM MDT Wed Jul 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Prevailing flow pattern will support a continuation of
seasonably hot and generally very dry conditions into next week,
with the exception of a low chance of a few widely isolated high-
based showers. As a result, areas of critical fire weather
conditions remain supported across portions of southern/central
Utah.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Friday)...Another day with conditions
across the area changing minimally. A broad ridge remains
anchored across the southern Plains and an expansive low continues
to churn in the Gulf of Alaska, resulting in the maintenance of
dry southwesterly flow locally. Widespread PWAT values around 0.3"
to 0.4" are noted, with up to around 0.5" in portions of
southwest Wyoming. Models (supported by satellite trends) suggest
this will be sufficient for some high based convection off of the
Uintas and into Uinta County, WY. Less support noted in models,
but increasingly agitated cu would suggest some potential for one
or two showers off the Book Cliffs as well. This activity would be
fairly high based in nature given the lack of moisture, posing
some localized threat of gusty erratic outflow winds at areas in
reasonable vicinity. Convection largely ceases after sunset, but
an embedded shortwave impulse slowly ejecting northward through
the Great Basin may add just enough support for a nocturnal shower
or two. Given moisture decreasing if anything, think it`s quite
an outside shot though.

Thursday looks like more of the same, as the forecast pattern
does not shift significantly. Moisture at most areas remains quite
low, though models do support a slight increase to PWATs across
northwest UT. Given proximity to the ejecting shortwave and a weak
advancing boundary, this appears the most likely area to see
convection, though even then chances are pretty meager (~15-25%).
Otherwise, will be another day with a shower or two struggling to
form off of some of the high terrain, primarily the Uintas. One
very slight change will be that of the shortwave helping to beat
back the ridge ever so slightly, cooling H7 temps, and in turn
nudging afternoon high temperatures downward a couple degrees or
so for most of the area.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Friday), Issued 331 AM MDT...
The long-term period will be relatively quiet, with more
seasonably hot and dry conditions to come. Utah will be located on
the upstream side of a broad ridge, with southwesterly flow
persisting through at least Monday. With a small amount of
moisture in place across eastern Utah to start the long-term on
Friday, precipitation chances will be similar to Thursday
afternoon, featuring just isolated showers/thunderstorms across
higher terrain in southern and eastern Utah. Dry microbursts will
yet again be the main threat, given moisture constricted to the
mid levels. As this moisture continues to decline, Saturday and
Sunday will likely feature little to no showers across the area.

The overall pattern gets a little more interesting by early next
week. Ensemble guidance suggests a shortwave trough moving over
the northwestern US, potentially grazing our area. It`s unclear at
this point exactly what will unfold, but this shortwave could
lead to elevated fire weather conditions owing to enhanced
southwesterly winds, and/or could draw moisture up from the south.
A large spread still exists in ensemble PWAT, though models
appear to be trending wetter beginning as early as Tuesday...at
least for southern Utah.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...South to southeast winds will gust around 25
knots until decreasing after 00Z. Light southeast winds will
continue through the night. Wind speeds will enhance by around
15Z, with south to southeast gusts around 25 knots much of the
day. Clear or mostly clear conditions will prevail.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Gusty winds ranging from south
to southwest will decrease after 00Z. After relatively light
winds through around 15Z, wind speeds will enhance. Gusts will
range from roughly 20-30 knots throughout southwest Wyoming and
most of Utah. Clear or mostly clear conditions will prevail. A dry
cold front will track into northwest Utah later in the afternoon,
bringing isolated showers capable of gusty, erratic outflow
winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...The overall fire weather pattern remains largely unchanged
over the next several days as a persistent upstream trough will
bring a series of shortwave troughs across southern Idaho/
northwest Utah. As a result, hot, dry, and windy conditions are
expected to expand over much more of Utah on Thursday afternoon,
with a more notable uptick in winds across the eastern half of
Utah. As such, additional Red Flag Warnings have been issued for
southeast Utah and the Book Cliffs region. In addition to the very
dry afternoon conditions (relative humidity into the single
digits), poor overnight humidity recovery is expected across much
of the southern and western half of Utah. Areas where no fire
weather headlines exist are still expected to see near critical
fire weather conditions with isolated critical fire weather
conditions, particularly across the western Uinta Basin, the
Uinta-Wasatch-Cache NF, and the Manti- La Sal NF during the
afternoon tomorrow.

Through Friday and Saturday, breezy conditions are expected to
taper off for much of the area as the aforementioned shortwaves
appear to track too far north, however, pockets of critical fire
weather conditions are still expected to be in place across the
southern Utah mountains. Have extended the Red Flag Warnings in
these zones (UT493 and UT 496) through Saturday in anticipation of
these strong winds and dry conditions continuing. Sunday will
mark a relatively less windy day across the region, however,
elevated fire weather conditions are still expected as afternoon
winds gust upwards of 20 to 25 mph across much of the region.
Another robust shortwave trough is expected to track through the
region early next week, bringing another widespread uptick in
afternoon winds. This, combined with the continued critically dry
conditions, will lead to another period of near-critical to
critical fire weather conditions across much of Utah. Will need to
monitor trends going forward before issuance of any headlines,
but the overall pattern will be supportive of strong winds and low
RH.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT Thursday for UTZ489-492-495-497-
     498.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM MDT Thursday for UTZ483-484-
     494.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT Saturday for UTZ493-496.

WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Warthen
LONG TERM...Cunningham
AVIATION...Wilson
FIRE WEATHER...Webber

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity