Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
911 FXUS65 KSLC 170931 CCA AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 331 AM MDT Sun Aug 17 2025 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure will bring a warming and drying trend to the region through Tuesday. A monsoon surge will begin as early as Wednesday and continue through at least next weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Early morning upper air and satellite analysis indicates the final shortwave embedded in southwest flow is pushing northeast across northern Utah. Due to cloud cover and continued southerly flow, temperatures across a broad area of northwestern and southwestern Utah remain quite warm overnight. Occasional reduction in visibility due to smoke settling into adjacent valleys from wildfires is also being reported. Expect an isolated thunderstorm or two may pop on the Oquirrhs this afternoon, but likely less impact than Saturday. Otherwise, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible, particularly early in the afternoon along the Utah/Idaho border and Uinta County, WY. With paltry levels of instability and limited deep layer shear, expect convection to be weak at best. As high pressure establishes near the 4-Corners region over the next several days, hotter, drier conditions are expected. Temperatures will approach the century mark along the Wasatch Front by Tuesday. Some impact to those who are heat sensitive and/or lack adequate cooling will increase in likelihood by this time across valley locations of Utah...and this increased HeatRisk will extend through at least Wednesday. Current levels do not suggest a need for headlines yet...but this will need to be monitored. As moisture begins to advect around the ridge into western Utah Wednesday, convection will begin to increase in coverage across southern Utah. This moisture will spread east with time, with more a more widespread threat of thunderstorms by Thursday. The majority of the ensemble members suggest this monsoon surge will deepen...and may extend into early next week. && .AVIATION...KSLC...Winds will generally remain southerly for the TAF period, though there is a small chance that winds could shift to westerly briefly between 21-00z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING... Gusty winds out of the south- southwest prevail across all terminals once again. Best chances for gusty showers appear to be at KLGU and KEVW where gusty and erratic winds in excess of 30kts appears possible. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all sites. && .FIRE WEATHER...As high pressure continues to build into the region, expect the bulk of the area to see increasing temperatures and drier conditions today. Locally elevated fire weather conditions can be expected in windier spots of west central and southwestern Utah this afternoon and evening. Humidities will fall to single digits by Monday across many lower elevation locations, with poor overnight recoveries. These hot and very dry conditions will continue through Tuesday. By Wednesday, moisture will begin to increase across western Utah, reaching eastern Utah by Thursday. In association with this monsoon surge, expect increasing threat of thunderstorms with wetting rains Friday into early next week. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ Kruse/Worster For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity