535
FXUS65 KSLC 260843
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
243 AM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Hot, dry and breezy conditions will continue to impact
the region through early next week. Heavy wildfire smoke is
expected across southeastern Utah and in the Richfield vicinity
through at least late Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The Beehive State remains in deep southwest flow
again tonight, squeezed between an upper level trough near the
Pacific Coast and broad ridging across the southern United States.
Very dry conditions continue, with gusts expected to increase this
afternoon and evening. See the fire weather discussion for more
information on the critical conditions.

Heavy wildfire smoke continues to be an issue across portions of
southeastern Utah, with the U.S. Interagency Wildland Fire Air
Quality Response Program air quality forecast suggesting air
quality will fall to unhealthy for sensitive groups to very
unhealthy for all groups at times through the afternoon into the
overnight hours especially across eastern portions of the Grand
Staircase and Glen Canyon/Lake Powell. When conditions reach these
levels, everyone should consider avoiding outdoor physical
activity. This threat will continue through at least Sunday night
into Monday morning...of course dependent on any significant
changes in the fire behavior of the Dragon Bravo fire in northern
Arizona.

Another area that may see significant/heavy near surface wildfire
smoke is areas near and north to northeast of the Monroe Canyon
Fire. Air quality sensors near the town of Monroe have shown
periods of poor air quality at times over the last 24 hours. If
dense near surface smoke impacts your area, consider postponing
outdoor activities, particularly in individuals with pre-existing
lung/heart conditions.

Another hot, dry and breezy day is expected Sunday. As the upper
level trough fills and lifts out of the region Sunday into Monday,
winds will decrease by Monday afternoon. That said, it will still
be hot and very, very dry.

Ensemble members have shifted toward 40% showing at least a 1-2
day monsoon surge across the region midweek, whereas 60% shunt
the bulk of any monsoon moisture to the east. If the now majority
solution occurs, this would suggest higher evaporative strain
across the region, worsening ongoing drought and fuel conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Southerly winds will continue through the TAF
period, with gusts to 20-25kts beginning around 15-16z and lasting
through the afternoon/early evening. An increase in wildfire
smoke aloft may produce hazy skies, particularly during the
morning hours, though VFR conditions will prevail.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Southerly to southwesterly
winds will increase through the morning statewide, with widespread
gusts in the 20-25kt range. VFR conditions will prevail in most
locations, though sites in close proximity to the Monroe Canyon
and Dragon Bravo fires may see MVFR-IFR VIS/CIG reductions.
Wildfire smoke aloft may also result in hazy skies, particularly
across eastern Utah.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...After poor to very poor overnight recoveries,
critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon and
evening across the bulk of eastern, central, and southern Utah.
While winds will decrease during the overnight period, very poor
overnight recoveries are expected once more. Winds may decrease by
1-2 mph Sunday afternoon compared to Saturday, however, expect
winds to be strong enough to warrant an extension of going Red
Flag Warnings into Sunday evening.

Winds will decrease a bit more Monday, with very low daytime
humidities and very poor overnight recoveries continuing through
at least Tuesday. Around 40% of the guidance suggests a brief
monsoon surge may bring higher humidities, and the potential for
lightning Tuesday into Wednesday. The remainder of the solutions
are drier and bring the bulk of any monsoon moisture east of the
region.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     UTZ481>484-489-492>496-498.

WY...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
     WYZ277.

&&

$$

Kruse/Cunningham

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visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity