802
FXUS65 KSLC 212348
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
548 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 116 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026...


- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across
portions of central, southern, northeast UT, and southwest WY each
afternoon within this forecast as monsoonal moisture continues
making its way north.

- The risk for flash flooding increases statewide today and
tomorrow, with both days featuring much of UT outlined within a
slight risk (2/4) of exceeding flash flood guidance.

- The potential for severe weather across UT this afternoon appears
to be increasing. Severe wind gusts (>58mph) appears to be the main
threat, particularly across southeast UT later this evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION, Issued 116 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026...
 A stronger monsoonal push is forecast to occur across
much of UT today as robust mid-level moisture returns to the region.
Currently, subsidence has built in across much of southern and
central UT following this mornings thunderstorms. This will serve to
offset convective initiation until around 1400-1500, enabling the
environment to destabilize further with CAPE general ranging from
1000-1500J/kg statewide, though CAPE ~2000J/kg appears possible
closer to southwest UT. With PWATs generally 1.2" or greater in
place across much of UT (0.8-1.0" PWAT anomalies for this time of
year), thunderstorms today are forecast to be efficient and heavy
rainmakers.

Of note, mid-level southwesterly flow will see an increase to around
20-30kts with multiple embedded shortwave perturbations providing
enough forcing for ascent. This will support multiple rounds of
storms this afternoon and through the evening hours as well as
storms propagating off terrain, which will be the opposite of what
we have been seeing through much of this recent monsoonal pattern
with storms remaining anchored to terrain. Typically, enhanced flow
would limit the flash flooding threat areawide as storms would not
remain over problematic basins and burn scars long enough to produce
flooding. However, given the efficient rainmaking status of these
storms with multiple rounds expected, the flash flooding threat
continues to exist, particularly if redevelopment occurs across a
single area in a short period of time. Additionally, the presence of
bulk shear to around 35kts supports organized storms sustaining
themselves for longer. Additionally, shear on this magnitude is
supportive of a supercell or two, particularly across southeast UT
where shear is greatest, which would increase the threat of flash
flooding further.

Regarding severe weather this afternoon and evening, the Storm
Prediction Center has placed much of UT within a Marginal Risk (1/5)
for severe weather with an emphasis on severe wind gusts in excess
of 58mph. Across most of UT, primarily western and northern, DCAPE
potentially in excess of 1500J/kg will exist this afternoon as
storms begin to develop ahead of the initial shortwave. This will
yield a scattered threat for strong to severe gusts through much of
the afternoon today as the enhanced flow aloft finds a better medium
amidst the higher DCAPE to mix down to the surface with.

Later this evening across southeast UT where forecast confidence in
wind shear to around 35kts is greatest, a westward propagating MCS
is forecast to move into the area from southwestern CO. Some mid-
level flow enhancement is possible around the time of initiation (to
around 30-40kts) with 1600-1800J/kg of DCAPE in place. This supports
an organized severe wind threat with a few severe gusts potentially
reaching as high as 70mph this evening across areas such as Glen
Canyon/Lake Powell and adjacent areas within eastern Wayne,
Garfield, and Kane counties.

A similar setup for flash flooding exists on Wednesday, though storm
motions are forecast to be somewhat slower as mid-level flow sees a
slight decrease. Fortunately, this will reduce wind shear somewhat
as well potentially reducing the longevity of storms. However, with
deep moisture remaining in place and weaker flow aloft, efficient
rainmaking thunderstorms remain expected with a slightly higher
chance of storms remaining anchored to terrain tomorrow.

From Thursday on, mid-level moisture will see a slight decrease
areawide. However, with ridging remaining overhead, daily chances
for thunderstorms will continue across much of the state and favor
terrain as steering flow aloft gradually weakens. The forecast
becomes somewhat muddied as we enter the weekend with global suites
continuing to disagree on moisture scouring, though the broader
pattern in place continues to support at least some continuation of
the monsoonal pattern into at least Saturday.


&&

.AVIATION...

KSLC...Monsoonal pattern continues. Outside of precipitation
influences, winds will favor a diurnally normal pattern. Gusty and
erratic outflow winds will be especially possible near
thunderstorms, with more modestly gusty conditions with showers.
There will be around a 30-50% chance of thunderstorms through 03Z
Wed, with shower activity becoming more likely thereafter into the
night. Thunderstorm chances then increase late morning through
Wednesday afternoon and evening. VFR conditions favored to persist,
but any heavier cell over the terminal may result in brief periods
of reduced CIGS/VIS.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...An active weather pattern will
persist as monsoonal moisture remains. Thunderstorm chances will be
highest through 03Z Wed, with activity becoming more scattered
overnight into the day. Area wide thunderstorm activity then will
begin to once again increase in coverage late morning on through Wed
evening. This activity will bring periods of heavy rainfall,
lightning, gusty and erratic outflow winds, and potentially small
hail. Outside of precipitation and outflow influences, winds at area
terminals will favor a diurnally normal pattern and direction. VFR
conditions are also favored to generally prevail, but any stronger
cell directly atop a terminal will bring potential for periods of
reduced CIGS/VIS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER, Issued 116 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026...
Monsoonal moisture remains in place throughout UT
increasing humidities and chances for showers / thunderstorms across
the state, helping moderating fire weather conditions statewide.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms see a notable uptick across
the entirety of the state today as a stronger monsoonal push arrives
this afternoon. Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop along
higher terrain parallel to I-15 each afternoon over the next several
days around 1200-1400 with gusty outflow winds, heavy rainfall, and
lightning. Some storms this afternoon, particularly across northwest
UT and southeast UT may feature severe wind gusts in excess of
58mph. Winds will generally remain light terrain driven
/ diurnal over the next several days other than thunderstorm
influenced winds and gusts.
&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Flood Watch until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for UTZ113-115>131.

WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Worster
AVIATION...Warthen
FIRE WEATHER...Worster

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