947
FXUS65 KSLC 242122
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
322 PM MDT Sat May 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...As a splitting storm system crosses the area, expect
increasing showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. Unsettled
weather will then continue through much of the coming week,
accompanied by a gradual warming trend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Monday)...Satellite imagery this
afternoon shows clearing skies across much of Utah and southwest
Wyoming after a fairly cloudy morning, allowing instability to
build and showers to develop over higher terrain. Instability will
be marginal at best, and combined with dry low levels, this favors
an environment capable of gusty outflow winds through the
afternoon and early evening from showers/thunderstorms that
develop. Little to no precipitation is expected, except across the
Uinta Mountains, which can expect around 0.10-0.30 inches of
liquid. Most showers will diminish through the evening, though
high-res guidance suggests lingering showers over central Utah and
primarily Millard County through much of the overnight hours.

Convective initiation will occur a bit earlier tomorrow, around
late morning, thanks to the southern portion of a splitting
trough nudging its way into southwestern Utah late Saturday night.
These showers/thunderstorms will initially be located over the
southern mountains, expanding nearly statewide by mid-afternoon
(the exception being northwestern Utah). Increasing moisture will
result in slightly higher QPF across higher terrain, with the
highest QPF over the Wasatch Plateau and Uinta Mountains, around
0.20-0.40 inches of rain. However, across southern and eastern
Utah, model soundings still suggest a lack of low-level moisture,
with thus the highest threat of gusty outflow winds across these
areas. Current HREF max suggests widespread gusts to 25-35 mph,
with isolated gusts to 50-55 mph mainly across eastern Utah.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Monday), Issued 341 AM MDT...
The long term forecast
generally features a consistent pattern of transient shortwave
troughing clipping the area yielding multiple chances for isolated
showers over the coming week across northern UT and southwest WY.
Additionally, warm temperatures seem to be here to stay as
geopotential heights continue to build across the western U.S.

The forecast begins Monday with a shortwave upper trough slowly
sliding off to our east. Forcing overall is expected to remain quite
weak which will result in showers remaining quite isolated to
scattered in nature and generally across higher terrain.
Additionally, moisture is expected to be quite lacking in the lower
levels and mostly confined to the mid-upper levels of the atmosphere
with rain likely struggling to reach the ground, particularly across
lower elevations. With warmer temperatures in the forecast, isolated
thunderstorms are expected with gusty and erratic winds possible
near and within these storms. With rain struggling to reach the
ground, QPF is expected to remain quite lackluster with these
storms. With the aforementioned brushing shortwave pattern expected
to continue through the week, isolated to scattered rain showers and
thunderstorms can be expected each afternoon across the
aforementioned areas across northern UT and southwest WY.

As geopotential heights continue to build across the region, warmer
temperatures appear locked in for the foreseeable future with the
majority of valleys gradually warming into the upper 80s through
Friday. Additionally, lower Washington County may see temperatures
break into the 100s by the end of the week as well. For northern UT
and southwest WY, the aforementioned storms may provide enough cloud
cover in the afternoon hours to prevent most valleys from reaching
higher than the upper 80s through the end of the week, though
temperatures will remain around 10 degrees above normal.

As we enter the weekend, a closed low may develop and meander to our
southwest. There remains considerable uncertainty with placement and
overall strength, but two things remain possible with this setup.
With large-scale ridging building over the western U.S.,
temperatures may continue to rise into Saturday which could serve to
bring KSLC to its first 90 degree day of the year. Additionally,
this low could surge more moisture north perhaps increasing
precipitation chances across southern UT, generally over higher
terrain as the lower levels would still remain quite dry.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will prevail over the KSLC
terminal through the valid TAF period with northerly winds becoming
lighter through the late afternoon and evening, transitioning to a
southerly flow around 05-06Z. Isolated area showers will be possible
along the southerly approach gate through sun down, but are not
expected to bring any significant impacts to the terminal.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail
across Utah and southwest Wyoming through the next 24 hours.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated
through the remainder of the daylight hours in northeastern Utah/
southwest Wyoming and across west-central/ southwest Utah, bringing
an isolated threat of gusty and erratic outflow wind gusts in excess
of 30-35 mph. Easterly winds are anticipated across the northern
terminals during the overnight hours, with light diurnally driven
flows expected from about KSLC southward.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
diminish this evening across most areas, though areas in central
Utah and even over eastern Millard County may see a few light
showers continuing during the overnight hours. The gusty outflow
wind threat will decrease greatly overnight, with little to no
measurable precipitation expected.

Moisture will increase heading into Sunday, with relative
humidities increasing accordingly. However, far southeastern Utah
and the West Desert are still expected to see critical minimum RH
near 10-15 percent. Showers and thunderstorms will develop across
much of the state after roughly noon. Although chances for
wetting rains will increase tomorrow across higher terrain, mainly
over northern Utah, dry low levels will create an environment
favorable for gusty and erratic outflow winds around 25-35 mph (10
percent chance of exceeding 50 mph)...especially across eastern
Utah.

Moisture availability will decrease slightly heading into the work
week, though the pattern is likely to remain active with daily
afternoon showers and thunderstorms appearing possible each day,
particularly for the northern Utah mountains.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Cunningham
LONG TERM...Worster
AVIATION...Webber

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity