Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR
282 FXCA62 TJSJ 051821 AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR Issued by National Weather Service Melbourne FL 221 PM AST Thu Jun 5 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Continue to expect a few passing showers across eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands during the overnight and early morning hours, followed by afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms across western areas of Puerto Rico each day. * Maximum temperatures will continue to range from the upper 80s to the mid-90s, accompanied by heat indices exceeding 100 degrees. * Breezy conditions will continue to result in a moderate risk of rip currents across most shorelines through the end of the workweek and into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Partly cloudy skies prevailed across the local islands throughout the day, with a few passing showers across windward areas. However, rainfall totals associated with these showers were minimal. In the afternoon, as expected, showers and isolated thunderstorms developed across the central and western regions of Puerto Rico. This activity is expected to dissipate by sunset, leaving partly cloudy skies. Maximum temperatures ranged from the upper 80s to the low 90s, with heat indices up to 105 degrees. A mid-level ridge pattern is expected to strengthen across the forecast area during the weekend and early the following workweek. At lower levels, a high pressure located across the Central Atlantic will maintain moderate to locally fresh easterly winds over the next few days. In terms of available moisture, precipitable water is still expected to remain below normal values through at least early next week. Nevertheless, the trade winds will continue to bring patches of clouds and showers from time to time. As the aforementioned ridge pattern aloft loses its footprint across the forecast area by midweek next week, moisture is likely to pool across the northeast Caribbean by the end of the forecast cycle. Meanwhile, tonight through at least Monday, continue to expect mostly fair weather across the region, with a few passing showers possible in eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands during the overnight and early morning hours, followed by afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms across central and western Puerto Rico each day. Seasonable temperatures are expected to continue, with maximum temperatures ranging from the upper 80s to mid-90s and heat indices exceeding 100 degrees. Another round of Saharan dust is expected to arrive early next week, although it is not anticipated to be as intense as the previous event. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail this forecast period. Brief/quick moving showers will continue to reach the vicinity of the USVI terminals and TJSJ, but no significant impacts to aviation operations are expected. SHRA is expected in W PR, and some may reach the vicinity of TJBQ through around 22 to 23z. E to SE winds at around 12 to 15 knots with periods of higher gusts will continue this afternoon. Then, around 23z into the overnight period, lighter winds will dominate (10 knots or less), increasing again after 06/12-14Z. && .MARINE... A surface high pressure over the Atlantic Basin will continue to promote moderate to locally fresh trade winds over the next few days. Therefore, small crafts should exercise caution across most waters. && .BEACH FORECAST... A surface high pressure over the Atlantic Basin will continue to promote moderate to locally fresh trade winds over the next few days. Therefore, small crafts should exercise caution across most waters. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE/BEACH FORECAST...OMS AVIATION...YZR